Suchergebnisse

Nadmierne wydatki publiczne w Polsce przekraczające co roku wielkość dochodów publicznych powodują nawarstwianie się długu publicznego, który wzmaga ryzyko inwestycyjne w Polsce, odstrasza zagraniczny kapitał, zawyżając koszt kredytów i utrudniając dostęp do nich. Podkreślić trzeba, że rynkowy koszt kapitału należy w Polsce do najwyższych w UE – także na tle innych państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, co oznacza, że oprocentowanie kredytów w Polsce należy do najwyższych w Europie, a polski rząd jest jednym z najdrożej pożyczających kapitał rządów wśród państw UE. Niemały już wcześniej, a dodatkowo skokowo powiększony w czasie covid-19, dług publiczny Polski będzie więc w następnych latach jeszcze bardziej ograniczać możliwości rozwojowe polskich przedsiębiorstw i poziom inwestycji, a w efekcie hamować proces nadrabiania zaległości rozwojowych polskiej gospodarki i obniżać poziom zamożności Polaków. Jednocześnie skazuje on polską gospodarkę na wyższy poziom opodatkowania w nadchodzących latach. ; Excessive public expenditures in Poland, exceeding the level of public revenues every year, causes the accumulation of even higher public debt, which increases investment risk in Poland, discourages foreign investors, overstating the cost of loans and hindering access to them. It should be emphasized that the market cost of capital in Poland is one of the highest in the EU - also compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, which means that the interest rate on loans in Poland is one of the highest in Europe, and the Polish government is one of the most expensive borrowers among EU countries. Public debt in Poland, which had not been insignificant before, was additionally abruptly increased in the covid-19 period. Therefore, Poland's public debt in the coming years will limit the development possibilities of Polish enterprises and the level of investments even more strongly, and as a result, inhibit the process of catching up of the Polish economy and reduce the level of wealth of Poles. At the same time, it condemns the Polish economy to a higher level of taxation in the coming years.

The aim of the article was to identify the main threats to the economic security of citizens, the state and the world, caused or reinforced by the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis and the related lockdown, as well as by unprecedented actions taken as part of the economic policy of states. The research used the method of statistical comparative analysis of economic data and the method of content analysis. On this basis, using inductive inference, an attempt was made to identify the main threats to the economic security of citizens, the state and the world related to the COVID-19 crisis. The COVID-19 crisis will deepen the debt crisis, with less credible countries, businesses and citizens paying the price. This will increase the instability and vulnerability of weaker countries and their entities to turbulence in the global economy. This will exacerbate the problem of social stratification in a single country and the distance in the development between weaker countries and highly-developed ones with developed and/or wealthy financial markets. The next gigantic stimulus packages of governments and additional money printing by central banks will loosen the discipline in economic policy, which will further discourage people from working and slow down the progress of civilization. This will limit business growth and marginalize equity markets. It will increase the acceptable level of indebtedness and intensify the phenomenon of investment risk in financial markets reaching an extreme level, which will increase the frequency and scale of subsequent crises. Is there any positive? Although the coronavirus crisis will result in bankruptcies of some enterprises, it will be an opportunity for other, new, creative and technologically advanced ones. Therefore, this time we shall allow the world economy to at least partially eliminate ineffective solutions hampering the world's social and economic development and, finally, begin to educate societies from an early age in the financial and economic sphere, so that a greater part of economic entities would be able to resist the next crisis and use it as an opportunity for development.

The aim of the study was to analyze the direction and the strength of the correlation between the average level of GDP growth (%) and the average level of general government debt (% GDP) in the EU countries within the 2001-2015 period. On the basis of the statistical analysis of data with the use of Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients and regression function, an international comparison was made with the use of the inductive reasoning methodology. The results show quite strong negative correlation between analyzed values, i.e. the higher government debt, the slower GDP growth over a long period of time (r=–0.72). In the case of EU15 countries the correlation was weaker before outbreak of the 2008 crisis and much more weaker than in the Central and Eastern European countries. It seems to be connected to risk underestimation during bull market periods observed in some countries, also in some high indebted EU15 countries. In turn of Central and Eastern European countries the correlation is much more weaker after 2008, what is in line with empirical results that indicate the importance of market expectations about the economy's ability to return to growth path after shock.

Purpose and Originality: The aim of the study was to compare the VAT revenue growth and the GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries belonging to the European Union within the 2000-2016 to verify the VAT gap estimations made by European Commission. Method: To achieve the goal, an analysis of the strength of the correlation between the yearly changes in nominal GDP and the yearly changes in nominal VAT revenue in the Central and Eastern European countries belonging to the European Union within the 2000-2016 period was carried out (chain base indices). On the basis of the statistical analysis of data with the use of Pearson's correlation coefficients, an international comparison also with European Commission's estimates was made with the use of the inductive reasoning methodology. Results: The results of conducted correlation analysis show very strong positive dependence between the yearly changes in nominal GDP and the yearly changes in nominal VAT revenue in the Central and Eastern European countries belonging to the European Union within the 2000-2016 period (chain base indices) in the case of 8 out of 11 CEE countries (Pearson's r from 0.78 to 0.93) and strong correlation in the case of rest 3 CEE countries (Pearson's r from 0.59 to 0.69). But it must be stressed that the assessment of these results must take into account changes in the VAT rates introduced in almost all CEE countries as the consequence of 2008 crisis. That's why these very high Pearson's correlation coefficients between analyzed values seem to confirm a growing problem with VAT collection, though VAT rates were increased almost in all CEE countries (in some of them significantly). Society: The high and/or growing VAT gap especially in the case of less credible CEE countries with permanent state budget deficits, growing public debt and higher tax rates, increases instability of sources for public expenditures and increases risk premium, thus market cost of capital, i.e. has an effect on future investment level, entities' creditworthiness, consumption level, the rate of debt growth and the rate of catchin-up process of the CEE countries and the rate of their social and economic development. Limitations: It must be stressed that the VAT gap analysis is based on estimates, incomplete data and adopted particular estimation method. Furthermore, the estimates of the VAT gap are updated and revised backwards every year, mainly because of updates in the underlying national accounts data published by Eurostat and corrections in estimation methods (for example revision of the parameters of the VTTL model used by European Commission; European Commission, 2017).

Brexit will cause tremendous changes in both economy and political situation of Europe. The consequences of this decision will be felt by the entire European economy, not only by the countries with the strongest economic ties with the UK; what is more, those consequences will have long-term effects. This decision will weaken economic perspectives in Europe and might threaten its current economic and political order. However, it seems that weaker EU economies, including the CEE countries will be the ones that will suffer the negative effects of Brexit the most. They are stronger dependent on both financial support from the EU budget and credibility that the EU membership gives them. The conducted comparative analysis indicates that 10 out of 12 biggest net beneficiaries of the EU budget in the years 2004-2016 are the CEE countries, which suggests that they will feel the limits of the EU budget the greatest. This will, without a doubt, limit their development abilities and will also decelerate the catch-up process, Especially that the conducted analysis of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between the percentage change in the level of GDP per capita in PPS (current prices) in the years 2004-2016 and the level of the net balance with the EU budget in the years 2004-2016 (in relation to GDP in 2016) indicates positive and quite strong dependence, i.e. the higher net balance with the EU budget the higher increase in the GDP per capita in PPS (rEU27=0.69), which seems to confirm the positive influence of the EU membership over the CEE countries' social-economic development.

According to the European Commission's estimates Poland had one of the highest VAT gap among the EU countries in 2014, which amounted to PLN 40bn, i.e. 31.7% of actual collected VAT revenue, and the VAT gap in Poland increased in contrast to 2010 data (by almost 1/4). These estimates are in line with the deceleration of the VAT revenue growth in Poland since 2008 (in contrast to nominal GDP growth) and moderate Pearson's correlation coefficient for the dependency between nominal GDP changes and nominal VAT revenue changes in Poland in the years 2003-2016 (chain base indices; r=0.47). The VAT gap is definitely higher in CEE11 countries than in EU15 – this is confirmed by all central tendency measures. The problem with tax collection effectiveness in the most EU countries is further complicated by the threats that are connected with the constant changes introduced to tighten up the tax system as they create additional uncertainty and complicate the situation in already complicated business environment.

Central and Eastern Europe countries can be characterized by rather tight international economic and financial relations, which indicates their dependence on foreign capital and on the upturn on global markets, which also makes them vulnerable to external shocks. Immunity of the economies of CEE countries was additionally diminished by their relatively quick and uncompromising openness to the process of globalization and European integration. All the economies subject to scrutiny have quite a substantial external debt (reaching 55-139% of GDP), highly negative net international investment position (constituting 25-71% of GDP), high external liabilities (at the level of 85-350% of GDP), a high degree of trade openness (export and import of goods and services amounting to 41-94% of GDP), considerable involvement of foreign flexible portfolio capital (even as much as 32% of GDP) or strong financial support received from the EU budget with CEE countries being its net beneficiaries (with the accumulated value of the funds received from the EU budget in 2004-2015 being at the level of 21-42% of GDP). It should be borne in mind that Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia and Slovakia are members of the Eurozone, i.e. operate with an international currency, which improves their creditworthiness and augments the trust of the global markets. What is not without significance for investors is apparently the fact that IMF classified these five countries and the Czech Republic as advanced economies. That is why, it should be stated that Polish economy is characterized by a relatively strong external exposure relative to the credibility it boasts, with the said exposure making it more and more vulnerable to shocks and less immune thereto. It also partially explains a higher estimation of premium for investment risk in Poland, which reduced its possibilities and the prospects of development in comparison with other economies of CEE. It should be underlined that while assessing the external exposure, one must take into account not only its peculiarities but also the achieved economic and political stability; and most of all, their evaluation by financial markets. ; Gospodarki państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej cechują dość silne międzynarodowe powiązania ekonomiczne i finansowe, wskazujące na ich uzależnienie od zagranicznego kapitału i koniunktury na światowych rynkach, oraz skutkujące wrażliwością na zewnętrzne szoki. Odporność gospodarek państw EŚW ograniczyło dodatkowo ich względnie szybkie i silne otwarcie się na proces globalizacji i europejskiej integracji. Wszystkie poddane analizie państwa posiadają niemałe zadłużenie zagraniczne (sięgające 55-139% PKB), dość mocno ujemną międzynarodową pozycję inwestycyjną netto (stanowiącą 25-71% PKB), wysokie pasywa zagraniczne (na poziomie 85-350% PKB), wysoki stopień otwarcia (eksport oraz import towarów i usług sięgający 41-94% PKB), niemałe zaangażowanie zagranicznego ruchliwego kapitału portfelowego (nawet do 32% PKB), czy silne finansowe wsparcie z unijnego budżetu jako beneficjentów netto (ze skumulowaną wartością otrzymanych funduszy z budżetu UE w latach 2004-2015 na poziomie 21-42% PKB). Pamiętać przy tym należy, że Litwa, Łotwa, Estonia, Słowenia i Słowacja są członkami strefy euro, czyli posiadają walutę międzynarodową, co poprawia ich zdolność kredytową i wzmacnia zaufanie rynków. Nie bez znaczenia dla inwestorów jest też fakt zaklasyfikowania przez MFW całej tej piątki państw oraz Czech do grona gospodarek wysoko rozwiniętych. Dlatego stwierdzić należy, że polską gospodarkę charakteryzuje względnie silna zewnętrzna ekspozycja w stosunku do posiadanej wiarygodności, wzmagająca jej wrażliwość na szoki i ograniczająca odporność na nie. Tłumaczy ona po części wyższą wycenę premii za ryzyko inwestycyjne w Polsce, co ogranicza jej możliwości i perspektywy rozwojowe w porównaniu do innych gospodarek EŚW. Podkreślić przy tym należy, że przy ocenie zewnętrznej ekspozycji uwzględnić należy zarówno jej specyfikę, ale również osiągniętą stabilność gospodarczą i polityczną, a przede wszystkim ich ocenę przez rynki finansowe.

The ongoing process of shutting down the QE programme by ECB and possible reduction of its balance sheet might result in rapid corrections in the capital cost and the occurrence of the sudden stop phenomenon in the case of countries that are less credible and strongly depending on external sources of financing, thus more sensitive and less resistant towards external shocks, i.e. in countries which are the greatest beneficiaries of risk underestimation in the case of unprecedented increase in global liquidity made by major central banks after the crisis of 2008. This threat is essentially related to Poland as, apart from strong dependence from external capital which is necessary to finance the process of developmental catch-up and rolling over of the dynamically growing both public and private debt, which is additionally increased by lack of membership in the Eurozone; this is reflected in lower ratings or market cost of capital which suppress developmental possibilities of Polish economy and contribute to faster debt accumulation. ; Trwający proces wygaszania program QE przez EBC oraz ewentualna redukcja jego bilansu grożą skokowymi korektami w koszcie kapitału i wystąpieniem zjawiska sudden stop w przypadku mniej wiarygodnych, silnie uzależnionych od zewnętrznego finansowania, a więc bardziej wrażliwych i mniej odpornych na zewnętrzne szoki państw, będących największymi beneficjantami zjawiska niedoszacowania ryzyka w sytuacji bezprecedensowego zwiększenia globalnej płynności przez główne banki centralne na świecie po kryzysie z 2008 r. Zagrożenie to w szczególnym stopniu dotyczy Polski, która poza silnym uzależnieniem od zagranicznego kapitału, niezbędnym do finansowania procesu nadrabiania zaległości rozwojowych i rolowania dynamicznie rosnącego niemałego, zarówno publicznego, jak i prywatnego zadłużenia, wzmaga dodatkowo brak przynależności do strefy euro, co znajduje odzwierciedlenie w niższych ratingach czy rynkowym koszcie kapitału, hamujących możliwości rozwojowe polskiej gospodarki i powodujących szybsze nawarstwiania się długów.

More and more results of econometric modeling research are showing the relationship between the value of general government deficit and the costs of public debt service. The correlation analysis conducted for the purposes of this work confirms strong negative dependence between the average general government balance (in relation to GDP) and the average yield of 10-year treasury bonds in 15 Western countries within the EU in the 1995-2015 period (sustaining higher deficits of general government are accompanied with higher costs of public debt service over a long period of time). Pearson's correlation coefficient for the entire research period amounted to -0,78. This dependence increased after the breakout of the financial crisis – within the 2008-2015 period, Pearson's r=-0,71, whereas during the 1995-2007 period, it was -0,63, which is consistent with the research results pointing out that the condition of public finances affects the decisions of investors in crises greater than in the relatively calm periods. ; Coraz więcej wyników badań modelowania ekonometrycznego wskazuje na związek pomiędzy wielkością general government deficit a kosztami obsługi zadłużenia publicznego. Przeprowadzona w pracy analiza korelacji dowodzi silnej ujemnej zależności pomiędzy średnim saldem general government (w relacji do PKB) a średnią rentownością 10-letnich skarbowych papierów wartościowych w 15 Zachodnich państwach UE w latach 1995-2015 (utrzymującym się wyższym deficytom general government towarzyszą wyższe koszty obsługi długu publicznego w długim okresie). Pearson's correlation coefficient wyniósł dla całego badanego okresu -0,78. Zależność ta nasiliła się po wybuchu kryzysu finansowego – dla okresu 2008-2015 Pearson's r=-0,71, podczas gdy dla okresu 1995-2007 -0,63, co jest spójne z wynikami badań, wskazującymi, że kondycja finansów publicznych silniej oddziałuje na decyzje inwestorów w sytuacjach kryzysowych niż w okresach względnego spokoju.

The main reason of limiting the possibility of using external institutions in the context of public debt management seems to be high political nature of economic policy in Poland and lack of consequence and effectiveness in the realization of strategy aims in the context of public debt management (frequent changes in terms of not overly ambitious aims which loosen the discipline). A few phenomena have become significant: ad hoc public debt management and temporary actions for rating agencies (only to prevent rating decrease) or for not exceeding of national and/or EU limits in terms of acceptable public debt or deficit level (to avoid precautionary procedures which limit the expansive character of fiscal policy or the procedure of excessive deficit which decreases credibility and increases capital cost). And although this issue can be found in the majority of the EU member states, its effects are much more severe in the case of developing economies where more expensive capital, as a result of overestimated investment risk, in combination with stronger demand for foreign capital, limits the process of catching up in terms of development and further strengthens the dependency: more expensive capital – faster debt growth.

Poland belongs to a shrinking minority – despite the economic crisis – of the non-Eurozone countries in the EU. The unwillingness of politicians and citizens to introduce the euro, indicates the need for dissemination of professional knowledge and apolitical discussion about the euro. This should give a convincing explanation about the consequences of the instability of the exchange rate for Polish economy, the challenges of the pegged exchange rate, the reasons for the strong differences in the perception of the desired exchange rate level. It also should show that Polish economy is strongly dependent on the exchange rate, and make people aware of other possible solutions for the exchange rate regime and give an extensive analysis of their consequences – from self-stabilization of the exchange rate, through the membership in the ERM II, and finally the introduction of the euro. The aim of this paper is to present one of these alternatives – the membership in the exchange rate mechanism ERM II and to indicate the advantages of this solution. It would increase not only the stability of the economy, but also its credibility thanks to the European Central Bank's guarantee. It would give also the opportunity to test the competitiveness of Polish economy at the chosen central course to the euro, and finally would constitute a contribution to the public education about the role of the exchange rate in the economy being a part of the single market in the European Union and to the discussions about the other – perhaps better than the present one in Poland – exchange rate regime solutions.

Economic changes in the Eastern bloc countries which currently belong to the European Union can be characterized as incredibly strong and important. In the process of catching up with the general development, some problems have been reduced. Unfortunately, other issues are starting to increase. The main aim of the present review is to show changes of the period 2003-2014 in major economic areas of these countries and also to point out potential sources of economic issues in the future.

artykuł jest polską wersją językową publikacji: The analysis of the amount and structure of foreign exchange reserves in Poland in the years 1998-2014 (Law and Administration in Post-Soviet Europe. Volume 2, Issue 1, Pages 34-41, ISSN (Online) 2391-5544, DOI:10.1515/lape-2015-0004, August 2015 ; Celem niniejszego opracowania jest analiza wielkości i struktury rezerw dewizowych w Polsce w latach 1998–2014. Rezerwy dewizowe stanowią zabezpieczenie finansowe kraju rozwijającego się, dlatego strategie zarządzania nimi zakładają zazwyczaj inwestowanie ich w sposób niezwykle bezpieczny i płynny. W te standardy wpisuje się także i polska struktura rezerw dewizowych. Zostały one zainwestowane w głównej mierze w papiery dłużne najbardziej wiarygodnych rządów i instytucji międzynarodowych, denominowane w głównych walutach międzynarodowych, i taka struktura utrzymuje się od lat. ; The aim of the study is to analyze the amount and structure of foreign exchange reserves in Poland in the years 1998-2014. The international reserves determine the emerging economies' financial security and that is why foreign exchange reserves management strategies assume that they are invested with priority given to liquidity and security. These principles are also binding in the Foreign Exchange Reserves Management in Poland. Most of international reserves are invested in debt securities of the most credible economies and international institutions, and they are denominated in the main international currencies. This structure has been maintained in Poland for many years.

Th e aim of this study was to analyse the rules of the foreign exchange reserves management in Poland and its legal basis. Having international currencies and/or easy access to them determine now a day the external solvency, credibility and stability of economies, and that's why the emerging market economies accumulate foreign exchange reserves in order to become more attractive for investors and creditors. Constitutional guaranteed central bank independence gives fully autonomy in defi ning of strategy and conducting of foreign exchange reserves policy based on internal regulations of the National Bank of Poland's decision-making bodies. Th ese legal solutions in Poland are consistent with international standards and trends in the way of risk management in foreign exchange reserves investment. Security and liquidity remains a priority. Current structure of National Bank of Poland international reserves refl ects these rules. Th ey are invested in the most reliable instruments denominated in the main international currencies.

THE ENLARGEMENT OF the European Union forces changes in the decision-making process of the European Central Bank. In order to maintain the Governing Council's capacity for effi cient and timely decision-making, the Governing Council agreed in November 2002 that the number of governors of the national central banks exercising their voting right should be reduced. In order to overcome the "numbers problem", the EU Council decided in March 2003 to introduce weighted rotation system that limits the number of votes in the Governing Council of the ECB to at most 21. However this rotation model still does not work and does not solve ECB's decision problems. Th is paper explains the clue of the rotation system in the Governing Council of the ECB – its main features and functioning. Finally, it discusses its advantages