Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Climate change is occurring more rapidly than expected, requiring that people quickly and continually adapt to reduce human suffering. The reality is that climate change-related threats are unpredictable; thus, adaptive behavior must be continually performed even when threat saliency decreases (e.g. time has passed since climate-hazard exposure). Climate change-related threats are also intensifying; thus, new or more adaptive behaviors must be performed over time. Given the need to sustain climate change-related adaptation even when threat saliency decreases, it becomes essential to better understand how the relationship between risk perceptions and adaptation co-evolve over time. In this study, we present results from a probability-based representative sample of 2,774 Texas and Florida residents prospectively surveyed 5 times (2017–2022) in the presence and absence of exposure to tropical cyclones, a climate change-related threat. Distinct trajectories of personal risk perceptions emerged, with higher and more variable risk perceptions among the less educated and those living in Florida. Importantly, as tropical cyclone adaptation behaviors increased, personal risk perceptions decreased over time, particularly in the absence of storms, while future tropical cyclone risk perceptions remained constant. In sum, adapting occurs in response to current risk but may inhibit future action despite increasing future tropical cyclone risks. Our results suggest that programs and policies encouraging proactive adaptation investment may be warranted.

Understanding population‐level variability in responses to pathogens over time is important for developing effective health‐based messages targeted at ideologically diverse populations. Research from psychological and political sciences suggests that party and elite cues shape how people respond to major threats like climate change. Research on responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic suggests similar variability across party identities; however, prior work has methodological limitations. This prospective, longitudinal study of a large probability‐based nationally representative U.S. sample assessed in March–April 2020 (N = 6,514) and then 6 months later in September–October 2020 (N = 5,661) demonstrates that COVID‐19 fear, perceived COVID‐19 death risk, and reported health‐protective behaviors became increasingly polarized over the first 6 months of the pandemic. Initial differences between Democrats and Republicans failed to converge over time and became more pronounced. Responses among Republicans were further polarized by support for former President Donald Trump: Trump Republicans initially reported weaker responses to COVID‐19 than non‐Trump Republicans, and these differences became more pronounced over time. Importantly, political identity and Trump support were not linked to perceived infection risk of a nonpoliticized pathogen, the flu. Finally, political identity and Republican Trump support prospectively predicted COVID‐19 vaccine intentions 6 months into the pandemic.