Suchergebnisse

This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of 'a radical decarbonization of the European economy based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation'. Although our case study includes a high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling includes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transformation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling. ; Acknowledgements: A. Renner acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport, through the "formación de profesorado universitario" scholarship program (FPU15/03376). Both authors acknowledge financial support by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 689669 (MAGIC) and the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, through the "María de Maeztu" program for Units of Excellence (MDM-2015-0552). A previous version of this work was presented at the SEES 2018 conference. The authors are grateful for the comments of one anonymous ...

While a large number of descriptive studies have delineated the interlinkages between water, food and energy resources in the last decade, there is still need for systematic conceptualization of resource nexus interconnections. This paper proposes a theory of relational analysis of the nexus based on the analytical concept of nexus networks. A taxonomy of nexus interconnections, detailing sequential and hierarchical connections, is characterized between and amongst the technosphere and biosphere. We illustrate the use of a novel diagnostic tool with regard to its ability to integrate macro-, meso- and microscale drivers of nexus problems. We apply this framework to problems generated by intensive crop production for exportation in an arid landscape (driven by external markets) and sustainable management of water resources (driven by public policies) in a southern Spanish region. We elucidate interconnected causal mechanisms for groundwater overexploitation and profile different social-ecological patterns on a spatially-explicit basis. The proposed approach is capable of accounting for the water-energy-food resource nexus in an integrated and multi-level fashion, addressing the tensions generated by both multi-functionality and resource entanglement in complex social-ecological systems. ; This research has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 689669 corresponding to the project Moving Towards Adap- tive Governance In Complexity: Informing Nexus Security ( www.magic- nexus.eu ); the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport (FPU15/03376); the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, through the "María de Maeztu "program for Units of Excellence (MDM-2015-0552).

Considering the existing world population, set of environmental impacts, and predicted changes in dietary trends, one can expect that, in the coming decades, food security will remain high on the list of sustainability concerns. In relation to this challenge, Europe's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) must address a diverse set of goals: (i) guarantee a stable and affordable food supply; (ii) preserve the socioeconomic stability of farmers by guaranteeing their economic viability; (iii) protect the environment by reducing pressures on agroecosystems; and (iv) improve food security by reducing import dependence. Policies related to these diverse goals are likely to generate adverse side-effects. A particularly uncomfortable concern is Europe's massive reliance on imported feed commodities. The European Union (EU) is unlikely to be capable of domestically producing currently imported agricultural commodities and a significant move to internalize imports would dramatically increase pressures on local ecosystems. Faced with that potential predicament, it is essential to have a robust information system capable of simultaneously addressing a variety of policy concerns. In response, this paper presents a novel accounting framework—Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM)—capable of generating an integrated set of indicators entangled across different scales and dimensions of analysis. Our versatile approach establishes a set of quantitative relations between: (i) the dietary intake of the society (desirability of the food supply); (ii) processes under human control (viability of the food system); (iii) processes outside of human control and associated with external biophysical limits determined by embedding ecosystems (feasibility of the food system); and (iv) the dependence on imported products (food security). The analysis of such relations can be tailored to the legitimate perceptions of different social actors affected by policies, anticipating potential conflicts and ...

The paper presents insights from carrying out a pan-EU sustainability assessment using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data (the old wine) with societal metabolism accounting (SMA) processes (the new bottles). The SMA was deployed as part of a transdisciplinary study with EU policy stakeholders of how EU policy may need to change to deliver sustainability commitments, particularly to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The paper outlines the concepts underlying SMA and its specific implementation using the FADN data. A key focus was on the interactions between crop and livestock systems and how this determines imported feedstuffs requirements, with environmental and other footprints beyond the EU. Examples of agricultural production systems performance are presented in terms of financial/efficiency, resource use (particularly the water footprint) and quantifies potential pressures on the environment. Benefits and limitations of the FADN dataset and the SMA outputs are discussed, highlighting the challenges of linking quantified pressures with environmental impacts. The paper concludes that the complexity of agriculture's interactions with economy and society means there is great need for conceptual frameworks, such as SMA, that can take multiple, non-equivalent, perspectives and that can be deployed with policy stakeholders despite generating uncomfortable knowledge. ; This project was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669. The James Hutton Institute is supported by the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS). Authors AR, JC-B and MG acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN), through the "María de Maeztu" program for Units of Excellence (CEX2019-000940-M).