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Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions
OBJECTIVE: To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London's individual based model, with data available in March 2020 applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) epidemic. SETTING: Simulations considering the spread of covid-19 in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. POPULATION: About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a detailed study of unpublished results, especially the effect of school closures. RESULTS: The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000. CONCLUSIONS: It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a ...
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Does It Matter if the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming Is 97% or 99.99%?
In: Bulletin of science, technology & society, Band 36, Heft 3, S. 150-156
ISSN: 1552-4183
Cook et al. reported a 97% scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), based on a study of 11,944 abstracts in peer-reviewed science journals. Powell claims that the Cook et al. methodology was flawed and that the true consensus is virtually unanimous at 99.99%. Powell's method underestimates the level of disagreement because it relies on finding explicit rejection statements as well as the assumption that abstracts without a stated position endorse the consensus. Cook et al.'s survey of the papers' authors revealed that papers may express disagreement with AGW despite the absence of a rejection statement in the abstract. Surveys reveal a large gap between the public perception of the degree of scientific consensus on AGW and reality. We argue that it is the size of this gap, rather than the small difference between 97% and 99.99%, that matters in communicating the true state of scientific opinion to the public.
The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19
In: Gurdasani , D , Bear , L , Bogaert , D , Burgess , R A , Busse , R , Cacciola , R , Charpak , Y , Colbourn , T , Drury , J , Friston , K , Gallo , V , Goldman , L , Greenhalgh , T , Hyde , Z , Kuppalli , K , Majumder , M , Martin-Moreno , J M , McKee , M , Michie , S , Mossialos , E , Nouri , A , Pagel , C , Pimenta , D , Popescu , S , Priesemann , V , Rasmussen , A L , Reicher , S , Ricciardi , W , Rice , K , Silver , J , Smith , T C , Wenham , C , West , R , Yarney , G , Yates , K & Ziauddeen , H 2020 , ' The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19 ' , The Lancet , vol. 396 , no. 10265 , pp. 1800-1801 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3
The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks. As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases. Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6. Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.
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