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We study state dependence in welfare receipt and investigate whether welfare transitions changed after a welfare reform. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we apply dynamic multinomial logit estimators and find that state dependence in welfare receipt is not a central feature of the German welfare system. We find that welfare transitions changed after the reform: transitions from welfare to employment became more likely and persistence in welfare and inactivity declined. We observe a large relative increase in transitions from employment to welfare. Immigrants' responsiveness to the labor market situation increased after the reform.

In several countries social assistance dependence has been increasing since the 1980s. After surveying the theoretical and empirical take-up literature, this study presents estimates of recent rates of non take-up of social assistance benefits. Once methodological shortcomings of prior estimations are corrected, the results show that take-up has fallen recently and thus cannot explain the rising welfare receipt. Following theoretical predictions, the probability that a rational individual takes up social assistance increases with the expected benefit amount and duration, and falls with application cost and stigma. More than half of all households eligible for transfers under the German social assistance program did not claim their benefits.

ZusammenfassungDie Grohmann-Vorlesung des Jahres 2023 beschäftigt sich mit dem Phänomen der "kleinen Jobs" in Deutschland. Zunächst wird der institutionelle und historische Hintergrund von Minijobs erläutert und die Intensität ihrer Nutzung beschrieben. Anschließend fasst der Text die Inhalte von drei empirischen Studien zusammen. Diese setzen sich mit der Frage auseinander ob (i) Arbeitgeber reguläre Beschäftigung durch Minijobs ersetzen, (ii) Minijobs zur "motherhood penalty" in Deutschland beitragen und (iii) ob Midijobs Übergänge aus Minijobs in reguläre sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung erleichtert haben. Die Vorlesung schließt mit einer Betrachtung möglicher Regelungsalternativen für "kleine Jobs" in Deutschland.

Abstract
The paper discusses the state of the research data infrastructure in Germany and presents ongoing activities for its improvement. The text emphasizes the need for continued advocacy and engagement for the advancement of the German data infrastructure to catch up with neighboring countries. It is for the common good when we enable researchers to access and blend data from multiple sources: it improves the quality, timeliness, granularity, and usefulness of statistics, facilitates more rigorous social and economic research, and supports evidence based policymaking and program evaluation.

In response to increased international policy attention to youth unemployment this study investigates post-secondary school transitions of school leavers. Multinomial logit models are estimated for male and female German youth. The models control for individual, parent, and household characteristics, for those of the youth?s region of residence and local labor markets. The findings suggest that immigrant youth has particularly low participation rates in continued education, and that youth unemployment is centered in high unemployment states and metropolitan areas. Recent changes in academic benefit policies do not seem to be correlated with changes in academic enrollment, whereas men?s transitions to the military do reflect recent changes in defense policies.

Over the last decades the German education system underwent numerous reforms in order to improve "equality of opportunity", i.e. to guarantee all pupils equal access to higher education. At the same time internationally comparative evidence yields that Germany features particularly low intergenerational mobility with respect to educational attainment. This study investigates the development in intergenerational education mobility in Germany for the birth cohorts 1929 through 1978 and tests whether the impact of parental background on child educational outcomes changed over time. In spite of massive public policy interventions and education reforms our results yield no significant reduction in the role of parental background for child outcomes over the last decades.