Suchergebnisse

This paper analyses the real and monetary effects of a shift in the exchange-rate policy in an economy where the private sector is uncertain about the true intentions of the government. In a repeated game of incomplete information, we show that a shift towards a tight, fixed exchange-rate policy leads to a loss in output and to a deficit on the current account in the period in which the policy lacks credibility. We also show that the long interest rate is above the short interest rate, reflecting the risk that the government reneges on its announced exchange-rate target. ; Published in connection with a visit at the IIES.

The paper considers the importance of reputation in relation to disinflationary policies in a continuous time ration expectations model, where the private sector has incomplete information about the true preferences of the government. It is proved that there is a unique equilibrium with the important property that the costs of disinflation arise in the start of the game where the policy has not yet gained credibility. ; Published in connection with a visit at the IIES.

This paper analyzes whether, and to what extent, the Danish 1, 5 and 10-year equity premia are predictable. We examine the predictive power of a comprehensive list of financial ratios, interest rates and so forth. The results show that the 5-year premium is predictable in the sense that the model explains a non-trivial proportion of the variability of the equity premium. Moreover, the model is good at predicting turning points in the premium. We also analyze the portfolio implications of the model and find that the model is useful in predicting the optimal return maximizing portfolio choice. Finally, the paper presents forecasts for the 5-year equity premium.

This paper analyzes the consequences of pursuing a less activist Government employment stabilization policy strategy in Egypt. On the basis of a fairly stylized model we find that a reduction of the Government's involvement in the economy along with an introduction of mild but binding firing regulations in the private sector may lead to a rise in total employment and to an improvement in Egypt's trade balance vis-à-vis the rest of the world.

Over the last 25 years the Danish economy has had difficulties in growing as fast as other EU countries and the United States. While the average growth difference is small, it signals that if this trend persists into the next century, Denmark will not be able to maintain its high position in the world income hierarchy. Moreover, during these years, the number of individuals living on transfer incomes have increased dramatically. Although we interpret both tendencies as signals of structural weaknesses, we are also aware that these developments may reflect that other goals in economic policy have been pursued, such as protecting the environment and/or achieving certain redistributive objectives. This paper analyzes this and other broad policy issues of importance for Denmark.