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While the Lebanese Hezbollah movement and Israel have gradually escalated their cross-border attacks, the situation has been relatively under control, with a full-scale war being averted — so far. This delicate balancing act however may be facing its toughest test yet since the onset of the latest round of hostilities. This would include the killing of Taleb Abdullah — reportedly the highest ranking commander killed since Oct. 7 — in a blast overnight Wednesday. Hezbollah has responded by sending a barrage of missiles into Northern Gaza, according to reports.Up until now Hezbollah officials have maintained that major escalation remains unlikely. Washington for its part is continuing its efforts to keep the situation under control.Hezbollah plays down likelihood of full-scale conflictOfficials from the Shiite group argue that an all-out war on the Lebanese-Israeli front remains unlikely notwithstanding the latest Israeli threats. According to a Hezbollah representative who spoke to RS on condition of anonymity, recent statements out of Israel reflect bluster more than an imminent change of strategy towards a more expansive military operation."There have been a lot of threats made" remarked the official, adding that Israel, however, still hasn't made the decision to alter the its approach on the Lebanese front."In practice the odds of a full-blown war erupting have not increased," he said.Notwithstanding these estimates, Hezbollah has recently unveiled military capabilities that appear designed to further deter Israel from launching a wider military campaign. The movement conducted a twin kamikaze drone attack targeting the northern Israeli town of Hurfeish, which led to the death of at least one Israeli soldier.But perhaps the biggest development in this regard was Hezbollah's announcement it had opened fire on Israeli warplanes. The Shiite group declared in a statement that it had launched anti-aircraft missiles at enemy army jets that had violated Lebanese airspace, forcing them to retreat. The IDF confirmed the group did indeed use such weapons but that its planes were never under any threat.While Hezbollah claims it has targeted and shot down Israeli drones in the latest round of hostilities, this would mark the first time it has fired upon piloted aircraft, revealing that it may have in its arsenal the means to seriously undermine Israeli combat operations in the event of a wider conflict.The Hezbollah official affirmed that such action is a warning shot for Israel not to escalate towards a full-blown war.Meanwhile, military experts say that the Shiite group sought to convey to Israel that its combat operations will face unprecedented constraints should it opt for a wider operation. "The message is that Israel won't have complete control of the skies," said retired Lebanese Army General Elias Farhat in an interview with RS, adding that Israeli warplanes may be forced to fly at an altitude above eight kilometers to stay out of the range of Hezbollah's missiles."This would prevent the aircraft from providing air-cover to troops on the ground carrying out a land offensive into Lebanese territory," he said.Importantly a limited ground operation into southern Lebanon is one of the demands being made by proponents of a larger-scale war with Hezbollah.Israel threatens all-out warFar-right Israeli figures meanwhile have called for war on Lebanon with the aim of eliminating Hezbollah. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir appeared to demand such a measure during a visit to the northern settlement of Kiryat Shmona after bushfires engulfed large areas in Israel's north following Hezbollah rocket attacks."Now the IDF's job is to destroy Hezbollah," said Ben Gvir, adding that "they're burning us here. … All Hezbollah strongholds should be burned they should be destroyed. War!"Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich issued a similar call, asserting that the Israeli military should strike Beirut, which he called "the capital of terrorism."These remarks mark the first time since the start of the latest hostilities in which members of Israel's far right have unequivocally advocated for a full-scale war on the Lebanese front."The far-right Israeli ministers, Smotrich and Ben Gvir are isolated from most Israelis when they advocate permanent Israeli rule of Gaza and treat the hostage issue as a secondary manner," said Ian Lustick, professor emeritus of Middle East studies at the University of Pennsylvania."But with 70,000 Israelis displaced from communities in the north, with fires lit by Hezbollah raging in the Galilee," he added, "these ministers can position themselves closer to the center of gravity of public opinion by calling for the destruction of Hezbollah and much of Lebanon," particularly given there is also strong support for a major operation against Lebanon within the Israeli military. Israeli military officials meanwhile have declared the army's readiness to launch a wider-scale operation against Hezbollah. Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that a decision on how to deal with the Lebanese front must be made soon."The Israeli army is very prepared for this decision," said Halevi.A full-scale conflict on the Lebanese-Israeli front being imminent is consistent with previous American assessments. Media reports earlier this year quoted senior U.S. officials voicing their concern that Israel may launch a ground operation in the late spring or early summer.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu however has stopped short of openly threatening an all-out war on Lebanon. Speaking on a visit to Israel's northern front, Netanyahu expressed the country's readiness for "a very intense operation," vowing to use all possible means to restore calm in the north.Israeli military action on the Lebanese front also remains largely unchanged, as combat operations continue to be confined mostly to surgical strikes targeting Hezbollah commanders and fighters, without causing heavy casualties amongst the civilian population.The Israel military has reportedly however used phosphorus gas in recent air operations. According to Lebanon's National News Agency, phosphorus shells were dropped on Lebanese southern villages, causing fires to erupt. This appeared to be a retaliation for the fires caused by the Lebanese movement's operations targeting the other side of the border.Israel's use of phosphorous gas in attacks on Lebanon during the current round of hostilities has been documented by Human Rights Watch, which warned in a recent report that the use of this substance poses a risk to civilians.Washington intensifies efforts to avert escalationThe Biden administration for its part is doubling down on its efforts to prevent a larger flare-up on the Lebanese-Israeli front. According to Lebanese media reports senior American officials have conducted high-level contacts in an attempt to avert a wider conflict. President Biden's special envoy for energy and infrastructure Amos Hochstein — the administration's point person for Lebanon — has reportedly participated in these talks.Washington's concerns now appear focused on the repercussions of a limited war in which Israel could launch a land incursion into Lebanese border areas.According to Axios, U.S. officials warned Israel that even such limited operations could end up igniting a regional conflict that would draw in Iran and allied groups in Yemen and Iraq. The Hezbollah official confirmed the likelihood of regional conflict in the event of major escalation. "Iran will intervene, as will certainly allies in Yemen and Iraq," he said. Syria, the official added, will also become a party to the conflict if a full-scale war were to erupt between Hezbollah and Israel."The Americans know that a larger war on the Lebanese front would mean a regional war," he said.

During a speech in Beirut on Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that Iran will surely retaliate for last week's attack, presumably by Israel, on its consulate in Damascus that led to the death of seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including senior Al-Quds commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi. In a televised address marking "Quds Day," Nasrallah described the attack as a "turning point," warning that any scenario was possible in its aftermath."Everyone must prepare themselves, arrange their matters and be careful when the Iranian side responds to the targeting of the Iranian consulate and to the Zionist enemy's possible response to the Iranian response," he said. Nasrallah's statements are significant in that they indicate a readiness for the first time since the Gaza war broke out after Hamas' October 7 attack to intervene massively should a wider war erupt between Iran and Israel, a message which appeared directed at the United States as much as Israel itself."Sayyed Nasrallah's statements were also intended for the Americans," according to Ali Murad, a columnist with the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, in remarks to RS. "The message is that Washington must rein in its Israeli ally after Iran's response, otherwise Hezbollah will take action without constraints should Israel attack Iran." That Hezbollah will intervene should a broader conflagration between Israel and Iran erupt appears to be a given. The Lebanese movement is by far Iran's closest ideological ally. Given that it relies on Tehran for its funding and weapons, Hezbollah also sees ties with the Islamic Republic through a strategic and even existential lens.More importantly, Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful military ally, hence its intervention — should a wider war be waged on Iran — will likely have a major impact. According to a recent report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the movement can easily be described as world's most heavily armed non-state actor, with some estimates pointing to up to 200,000 missiles and rockets in its arsenal.The Lebanese Israeli frontNasrallah also appeared to respond to recent Israeli threats of escalation against Lebanon, warning for the first time since the outbreak of the latest round of fighting along the Israeli-Lebanon border that Hezbollah has used only a fraction of its capabilities."We have not used the main weapons nor the main forces and we have not called in the reserves," he noted.These remarks followed the announcement by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant of the start of a new phase in the military operations against Hezbollah. During a tour of the Israeli northern front, Gallant outlined a pivot towards a more offensive tempo, promising to strike Hezbollah "wherever the organization operates, in Beirut, Damascus and in more distant places." The Israeli minister's statements came as Israel has upped the ante in its operations against the Lebanese movement. Israel announced this week the assassination of a Hezbollah commander whom it said was a member of the movement's elite Radwan forces. An air raid also targeted what Israel said were Hezbollah air defense positions in the Eastern city of Baalbek. The attack came after the group shot down an Israeli drone.According to experts, Nasrallah's apparent response to Israeli escalation on the Lebanese front aims to maintain a relative level of deterrence. "Hezbollah continuously and gradually reveals its military capabilities and its high level of readiness to strengthen deterrence against the Israeli military," Lebanese researcher Hussam Matar, told RS. Matar is close to the Shiite movement and author of the book "The Soft Power War Between the US and Hezbollah." He added, "Hence the reference to capabilities not yet used are a message which aims to shape the perceptions of the enemy regarding the costs of escalation."While Israel's latest military operations clearly mark an escalation, they remain below the threshold that would essentially force Hezbollah's hand. They largely continue to be characterized by targeted strikes against foot soldiers and field commanders from the movement.Such military action remains a far cry from the Dahiya Doctrine according to which Israel would launch a large scale offensive designed to destroy civilian infrastructure, a tactic employed during its 2006 war against Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut and again in its latest war against Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. As long as Israel continues to operate below this threshold, any escalation on its part is likely to be met with the kind of calculated retaliation that has characterized Hezbollah's strategy in the current conflict."The pattern of attacks and counterattacks over the past six months clearly demonstrates that Hezbollah is not seeking a broader war with Israel," explained Beirut based analyst with the Atlantic Council Nicholas Blanford in an interview with RS. "At present it is mainly Israel that is setting the escalatory cycle."However, a "Dahiya Doctrine" scenario against Lebanon cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly given the Israeli government's recent escalatory operations, notably the attack on the Iranian consulate. But its implementation faces serious challenges given that Hezbollah will almost certainly respond in kind. The firepower unleashed by the Lebanese movement's missile arsenal could overwhelm Israel's air defense capabilities, as impressive as they are, and cause severe and unprecedented damage to Israel's homefront. Israeli officials have recently warned of such consequences amid the latest escalation. According to Yoram Laredo, the head of Israel's National Management Emergency Authority, a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah would cause great damage to the Israeli economy, in addition to nation-wide power outages. Given the relationship between Hezbollah and its allied militias in Syria and Iraq, a full-blown conflict between the Lebanese movement and Israel would also likely spread to these countries, both of which are home to U.S. bases, thus increasing the risks of Washington being dragged into such a conflict."With the possible spread of any Hezbollah-Israel confrontation into Syria and Iraq, the U.S. might find itself more deeply involved at that time," senior adviser at Gulf State Analytics Theodore Karasik told RS. Washington, he added, will be "challenged about which steps to take next."Hezbollah's allies in Iraq and Syria form part of a broader network of ideological Shiite allies which also includes the Houthis in Yemen. Given this ideological affinity, the actions these players have taken in support of Hamas and other factions fighting Israel in Gaza will likely pale in comparison to what they may do should the Israeli military resort to a Gaza-like war plan against Lebanon. "In case a full-scale war was to erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, Yemen and its leadership will stand with the party (Hezbollah) militarily, politically and economically," said a Houthi source who requested not to be named in a statement to RS. "The military intervention will be without limits and according to what the party requests, and may include missile and drone attacks, along with the sending of foot soldiers."Such statements mean that Israel will likely not only face additional firepower to the already formidable arsenal in Hezbollah's possession but may also face more manpower. This latter factor would represent an especially acute concern for Israel should it carry out a land operation in Lebanon, given the shortage of troops within its own ranks.Against this backdrop it's possible that the Israeli military would be unable to withstand such a war without the United States becoming an active participant. This is supported by U.S. intelligence assessments warning that the Israeli military will be overstretched should a full-fledged war with Hezbollah erupt, making it unlikely that Israel will succeed in such a conflict.Should the U.S. intervene directly to support Israel under such scenario, American military bases and personnel would likely become targets in places like Iraq and Syria.

Reports Monday that Israel has killed a major Hezbollah commander comes after what is described as the militants' first act of retaliation against Israel following the assassination of senior Hamas official Saleh Al-Arouri in southern Beirut. This development threatens to jeopardize U.S.-led efforts to calm the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, after Hezbollah's leadership appeared to signal a conditional willingness to engage in such a processReuters reported on Monday that an Israeli strike on south Lebanon killed Wissam al-Tawil a senior commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan force.Meanwhile, Hezbollah issued a statement Saturday saying it had launched a barrage of 62 rockets at an Israeli air surveillance base located at Mount Meron in Northern Israel. According to the statement the rocket attack struck the intended target in what it said was a preliminary response to the assassination of Al-Arouri, indicating that the score with Israel has yet to be settled over the killing of the Hamas official. The Israeli side meanwhile confirmed that 40 rockets were launched towards the base, without further elaborating as to whether the rockets had reached their target. But according to Israeli daily Haaretz on Sunday night, the Israelis are now saying the operation inflicted heavy damage on its military facility. The Israeli military meanwhile announced that it carried out a large-scale operation against Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon in response to the Shiite movement's operation. According to the Israeli army "significant assets" belonging to the movement were hit in the attacks. These developments come after Hezbollah's secretary general Hassan Nasrallah on Friday vowed retaliation for Al-Arouri's assassination, which marked the first Israeli military operation targeting the Lebanese capital since the 2006 war with Hezbollah.Despite the soaring tensions however the situation remains tenuous but contained, at least for now. "Hezbollah's operation is more than escalation and less than conflagration," explained retired Lebanese army general Elias Hanna in an interview with RS. "For its part Israel is relying on America for munitions and firepower," he added, stressing that Hezbollah was 10 times stronger than Hamas. "In case of full-blown war with Hezbollah, Israel would therefore need to rely even more on the U.S., which is against such a war," he stated.The latest round of escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front has nevertheless sparked fears of a full-blown conflict. Addressing reporters in Beirut, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned of the risks of Lebanon becoming embroiled in a large-scale conflagration. "It is absolutely necessary to avoid Lebanon being dragged into a regional conflict," he underscored. Borrell's agenda in Beirut also included talks with the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc Mohammad Raad. This marked the first meeting between a senior Western official and a representative from the Shiite movement since the eruption of violence on the Lebanese-Israeli front on October 8. It comes as the Biden administration is intensifying its efforts to reach a land demarcation deal between Lebanon and Israel. Washington's push for launching talks over a potential deal stems from its fears of a full-blown war on the Lebanese-Israeli front.President Joe Biden's special advisor for energy and infrastructure Amos Hochstein is spearheading these efforts. Hochstein, who successfully mediated the maritime border deal reached between Lebanon and Israel in 2022, recently visited Israel to discuss the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli front and a possible land border agreement. Nasrallah did not rule out his party's readiness to engage in U.S.-sponsored talks over such a deal, emphasizing, however, that this cannot take place before a permanent ceasefire is reached in Gaza."Any talks, negotiation or dialogue will only take place or achieve a result after halting the aggression against Gaza," declared Nasrallah in his Friday address.Hezbollah's leader also appeared to lay down his conditions for a potential deal. They not only included Israel's withdrawal from what Lebanon says is occupied territories in the villages of the Shebaa farms and Ghajjar, but also an end to all Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty. "We stand before a historic opportunity to liberate every inch of Lebanese territory and to prevent the enemy from violating Lebanese sovereignty on land, in the air and at sea," he asserted.Nasrallah's statements echo what Hezbollah officials privately say about the movement not being opposed in principle to the idea of talks or negotiations over the border."Declaring that there will be no talks pertaining to this issue prior to a ceasefire in Gaza indicates that Hezbollah is open in principle to such talks," according to one Hezbollah official who spoke to RS on condition of anonymity. RS can also reveal that officials from the Shiite party have stated in closed-door meetings with European diplomats that the U.S.-brokered maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel could facilitate talks over a possible land agreement. Importantly, these statements suggest that Hezbollah remains ready to engage in U.S.-led mediation efforts despite the Biden administration's virtually unconditional support for Israel in the current conflict in Gaza.Hezbollah's conditional readiness to engage in such a process under U.S. auspices, and its continued reluctance to take action that would initiate all-out war, provide a strong impetus for the Biden administration to pressure Israel into agreeing to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, not least given Washington's stated goal of preventing a major flare-up on the Lebanese-Israeli front. Full-scale conflict on this front would undermine U.S. interests in Lebanon, which remains one of the region's most pivotal countries and the gateway of the West to the Middle East. Despite its close ties with Israel, Washington continues to wield significant influence in Lebanon. The Lebanese army, which is the country's most respected institution, is one of the world's largest recipients of American military aid. Army officers and soldiers also frequently travel to the United States as part of their training programs. Washington's success in brokering the maritime border deal further cemented its role as a critical player in Lebanon, particularly given that the country technically remains in a state of war with Israel. By failing to push for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, on the other hand, the U.S. runs a real risk of war on the Lebanese-Israeli front. This owes in no small part to a "real men go to Beirut '' mindset that appears to be prevalent amongst some members of the Israeli political and military elite. Just as U.S. neoconservatives adopted the slogan "real men go to Tehran" after the U.S. invaded Iraq and toppled the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, so do some of the more radical Israeli officials appear to be itching for war with Hezbollah. The Washington Post has also revealed that U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may resort to escalation on the Lebanese front for domestic political considerations. Regardless of how such a war would play out, it will be seen by many, particularly across the Arab world, as backed and enabled by Washington. However, contrary to the situation in 2006 when the Israelis last attacked the Lebanese capital, the world has returned to an era of great power competition with nations like China and Russia seeking to enhance their role in the Middle East. Both Beijing and Moscow are challenging U.S. influence in the region, with the former successfully mediating the resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the latter intervening militarily on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Assad. China and Russia's refraining from adopting an anti-Hamas stance in the conflict in Gaza is another indicator of their intent to compete with the United States in the region. An all-out war on the Lebanese-Israeli front will only serve to undermine U.S. influence in Lebanon in ways that can only benefit China and Russia. Both countries would likely be tempted to expand their influence in Lebanon given its geopolitical importance. And it likely would add to the already formidable influence enjoyed by Iran, which backs Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

The situation along the Lebanese-Israeli front continues to escalate as Hezbollah and the Israeli military intensify cross-border operations. Despite the escalation, the Lebanese Shiite movement's strategy appears unchanged — to force Israel to divert substantial military forces from its Gaza offensive against Hamas without provoking a full-blown war with the Jewish state. Against this backdrop, Hezbollah's stance ironically appears to align with the Biden administration's goal of preventing a wider conflict as Israel continues its campaign against the Palestinian movement in Gaza.A new phase of escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli frontTensions between Hezbollah and Israel have peaked following an Israeli airstrike that targeted a civilian car in south Lebanon. The November 5 attack, which Human Rights Watch denounced as "an apparent war crime," led to the death of a woman and her three grandchildren, prompting retaliation from Hezbollah that led to the death of one Israeli civilian near the northern town of Kiryat Shmona. That incident marked the first time the Lebanese movement appeared to deliberately target Israeli civilians in this latest round of cross-border fighting.The situation has sharply escalated since then, with Israel bombing a hospital in the southern Lebanese town of Mays Aljabal, leaving one person wounded. Hezbollah meanwhile carried out a -border missile attack that left over 20 people wounded, including at least seven Israeli soldiers.The Lebanese Shiite movement's leader Hasan Nasrallah meanwhile announced that Hezbollah has upped the tempo and tactics of its cross-border operations. In his second address since the beginning of the war in Gaza, Nasrallah declared last Saturday that the Shiite movement has raised the level of its military action "in terms of the number of operations, targets and the type of weapons." This, he explained, included the use for the first time of "Burkan" missiles which have a higher explosive impact, in addition to suicide drones.Nasrallah stops short of declaring warImportantly Hezbollah's leader, while announcing the escalation at the tactical and tempo levels, did not declare a change to the movement's overall strategy since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza. This strategy, as explained by Nasrallah himself in his previous speech, aims to overstretch the Israeli army by forcing it to divert military resources towards the Lebanese front, thereby preventing Israel from using its full military power to destroy Hamas. Discussing the overall situation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, he stated that "this front would remain active."Nasrallah's apparent reluctance to open a major new front with Israel is consistent with his general strategy of not initiating conflict. Following the July 2006 war, he famously stated that he would not have authorized the capture of two Israeli soldiers, which initiated the conflict, had he known it would lead to war on Lebanon itself.Sources close to the Lebanese movement emphasize that preventing a new Israeli war on Lebanon is a major factor in its approach to the current conflict in Gaza."Hezbollah will not drag Lebanon into a destructive war unless Israel imposes such a war," explained one source close to Hezbollah who spoke on condition of anonymity. According to a second source who also enjoys close ties to Hezbollah's leadership, the movement's posture proves it places a high priority on Lebanon's national interests. "Hezbollah is behaving as a Lebanese rational actor that attaches great importance to Lebanese national interests," he stressed.This argument serves to counter the image of Hezbollah as a proxy of Iran. Both Lebanese and foreign critics of the movement depict it in such a manner, but the movement itself rejects this characterization, insisting instead that Tehran plays a mere supportive role.While Hezbollah has previously hinted that a Hamas defeat would be a red line that would provoke a more aggressive approach against Israel, Nasrallah appeared to pin his hopes on growing international pressures to prevent such a scenario. "We see thousands of people in Washington, New York, London and Paris protesting against Israel" he stated, adding that support by Western governments for Israel's ongoing war in Gaza was declining.The Lebanese Shiite movement also appears aware of the danger of Israel dragging the United States into a broader regional conflict. According to the first source, Hezbollah, as things stand, will not engage in any actions that would be understood as a declaration of war that would permit Israel to fulfill its longstanding dream of forcing the United States into a larger war against Israel's regional enemies. "There are American military assets and aircraft carriers deployed in the region" he emphasized, warning that this "increases the danger of Israel dragging the U.S. into a regional war."Israel escalates its threats against LebanonSenior Israeli officials meanwhile have threatened Lebanon with a Gaza-like scenario. Following Nasrallah's latest speech, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that Hezbollah was playing a dangerous game that could elicit a devastating response."What we can do in Gaza, we can also do in Beirut," he asserted during a tour of the Israeli northern front.Such statements, in addition to Israeli military action on the Lebanese front, appear to have sparked new fears in Washington. According to media reports released immediately following Gallant's remarks, U.S. Secretary of Défense Lloyd Austin expressed his concerns regarding Israeli escalation against Lebanon during a phone conversation with his Israeli counterpart.Concerns over broader escalation reflect the Biden administration's policy of preventing a widening of the conflict in Gaza to Lebanon and elsewhere in the region. Biden's senior adviser for energy and infrastructure Amos Hochstein recently visited Beirut where he held talks with high-ranking officials that focused on preventing a spillover of the conflict into Lebanon.Austin is better placed than most in the current American administration in understanding the potentially catastrophic repercussions of full-scale war on the Lebanese-Israeli front. Having served as both head of U.S. forces in Iraq and the region more broadly as head of U.S. Central Command, the Pentagon chief is no doubt well acquainted with the significant clout Hezbollah enjoys with regional players like the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite armed groups in Iraq.Nasrallah himself alluded to this, stating that operations targeting U.S. military assets and personnel launched from Iraq and Yemen would stop if Washington pressured Israel into halting its offensive in Gaza. "If you Americans want to stop these operations, you must stop the war in Gaza," he declared.Viewed against this backdrop, Hezbollah's leader was effectively sending a message to Washington offering to rein in his allies in Yemen and Iraq if the Biden administration would do the same with its Israeli ally.The U.S. administration also appears to fear being dragged by Israel into a broader regional war. According to Joshua Landis, the head of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, concerns regarding escalation on the Lebanese front stem from fears that Israel may seek to ignite the situation there as international pressures increase for a cease-fire."Biden has compromised the U.S. position through his outright support for Israel's objectives," he said in an interview with RS, adding that "Austin and other senior officials may be concerned that Israel will take this as a green light to widen the conflict which would endanger U.S. troops." Some U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq have come under increased rocket and missile fire from pro-Iranian Iraqi Shi'a militias since the launch of Israel's offensive in Gaza and elsewhere in the region.

The situation on the Lebanese-Israeli front is escalating as Hezbollah and the Israeli military engage in daily tit-for-tat exchanges. These clashes have led to a rising death toll on both sides, sparking fears of a new war front as Israel continues its campaign against the Palestinian Hamas movement in Gaza.Against this backdrop, senior U.S. officials continue to warn against Hezbollah opening a new front with Israel. This fear, however, reflects a misunderstanding of Hezbollah's approach to the current conflict. The Lebanese Shiite movement's operations on the southern border should rather be seen as what it perceives as "an act of necessity" to preserve itself.Hezbollah's current military strategy vis-a-vis IsraelFollowing operation "Al-Aqsa Storm," in which Hamas killed some 1,400 Israeli and foreign citizens and abducted more than 200 others, Hezbollah declared that it would not be a bystander as Israel initiated its response.Addressing a rally in Beirut, the head of the movement's executive committee, Hashem Safiedine, underscored that Hezbollah was not a neutral party in the ongoing hostilities. The Shiite movement also launched a cross-border attack on Israeli military positions in the disputed area of Shebaa Farms, describing the operation as an act of solidarity with the Palestinians.While the cross-border exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified in the weeks that have followed, they have remained contained to the border region. The Shiite movement has carefully chosen its targets, focusing on Israeli military posts in the area. Israel's retaliatory action on the Lebanese front has likewise been measured and restricted to the border region.Well-informed sources close to Hezbollah emphasize that the movement's scope of operations thus far appear to rebut the notion that it intends to open a full-on second front against Israel. "If Hezbollah wanted to take advantage, it would have done so right after the Hamas operation as Israel was still in a vulnerable position," said one source who spoke on condition of anonymity."All sides are keen on avoiding an all-out war" he added, affirming that this stance applies very much to Hezbollah. "A full-blown war now would prove costly, with Israel amassing troops in the north and the United States sending aircraft carriers to the region," he stressed.Senior officials from the Lebanese Shiite movement have characterized its cross-border operations as designed to both demonstrate its solidarity with Hamas and distract the Israeli military. The movement's second-in-command, Naim Qassem, stated that the goal is to weaken the Israeli side.A second source close to Hezbollah's leadership confirmed that the movement is trying to overstretch the Israeli military in the midst of its campaign in Gaza."What is taking place is a war of attrition," explained the source, who asked not to be named. "Hezbollah is forcing Israel to divert military resources to the northern front in order to weaken its military operations in Gaza," he added.Hezbollah's red linesAccording to the second source, however, Hezbollah's strategy could change if Israel launches a major ground offensive into Gaza as reportedly planned."All options are on the table if Israel goes ahead with a ground invasion into Gaza" he emphasized.Israel has in fact launched ground operations into Gaza in what it has described as the next stage in its campaign. However, it has yet to launch a full-scale invasion of the coastal enclave. As of this writing, Hezbollah has not escalated beyond targeting Israeli military positions in the border area. Ultimately, Hezbollah's future course of action will likely be determined by how the situation on the ground evolves. The first source underscored that the declared Israeli objective of annihilating Hamas constitutes a red line for the movement."If Israel appears on the verge of destroying Hamas, Hezbollah, along with the Houthis in Yemen and other regional players, will intervene to prevent that scenario," he added.The movement's red line stems from concerns that it may be next on Israel's list should the latter appear to be achieving its declared mission against Hamas. Asked if that was indeed Hezbollah's approach, the first source responded, "Certainly."Indeed, these concerns appear warranted to some degree amid reports that Israel's defense minister and its top military brass were pushing for a pre-emptive attack against Hezbollah in parallel with the campaign against Hamas. According to these reports, these voices were overruled by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the urging of the United States. The destruction of Hamas, however, would free up Israeli resources and possibly upset the mutual deterrence that has preserved the calm on the Lebanese-Israeli front since the July 2006 war. Under such a scenario, Israeli political leaders could deem it less risky to launch a full-scale military campaign against Hezbollah.Biden's dilemmaThe Lebanese Shiite movement's red lines threaten to put the Biden administration in a bind. The White House approach to the current conflict rests on two major pillars: throwing its full weight behind Israel's goal of annihilating Hamas while seeking to prevent a broader conflict from erupting.Hezbollah's strategy makes achieving both goals very difficult, if not impossible. As noted above, an imminent Hamas defeat in Gaza will likely trigger escalation not just from Hezbollah itself, but also from its allies in Yemen. Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units are also likely to enter the fray under such a scenario.This is due to the influence the Lebanese movement enjoys with these groups as a result of both ideological affinity and battlefield support, as Hezbollah has provided assistance to both Yemen's Houthis in their war against the Saudi-led coalition, and to the predominantly Shiite militias in Iraq in their campaign against ISIS. Like Hezbollah, both the Houthis and the Iraqi militias have received significant assistance from Iran.Possible scenariosGiven Hezbollah's assessment that the annihilation of Hamas would be a prelude to an existential threat against the movement itself, U.S. warnings are unlikely to deter the group should such a scenario unfold. Despite the deployment of two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups to the region, Hezbollah has continued its cross-border operations against Israel.Meanwhile, former senior U.S. officials like the Quincy Institute's Steve Simon believe that direct U.S. military action against Hezbollah is unlikely. "The U.S. will be in a position to intervene if it chooses to do so," said Simon, a former Obama Administration senior advisor for the Middle East and North Africa, in an email exchange. "But I doubt they will or that the Israelis will want them to," he added. Reports have nevertheless emerged that U.S. military action against the Lebanese movement has been discussed at senior levels in government. But American military operations against Hezbollah would also almost certainly lead to intensifying attacks on U.S. troops by the Lebanese movement's ideological allies, including the Houthis in Yemen and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. This would effectively mean a regional war in which U.S. forces will find themselves once again under fire.

En octobre 2019, d'immenses manifestations populaires ont contesté le pouvoir libanais alors qu'éclatait au grand jour une crise économique et financière sans précédent due à l'incurie des dirigeants. La chaîne de Ponzi organisée à l'échelle nationale par les autorités monétaires elles-mêmes s'est rompue. La monnaie s'est effondrée et avec elle toute une société confrontée à un appauvrissement aussi fort que brutal. Plus d'un an plus tard, les mouvements contestataires qui se sont auto-baptisés révolutionnaires « thawra », sont très peu visibles. Même le traumatisme de l'explosion du 4 août dans le port de Beyrouth, dû à la même incurie des pouvoirs publics, n'a pas suscité la remobilisation de dynamiques collectives alors qu'à l'échelle individuelle le niveau de colère est très élevé, et le rythme de l'émigration sans volonté de retour s'est très fortement accéléré malgré les contraintes liées à la Covid. Au point que le paysage politique libanais semble extraordinairement figé, alors que la société est en plein bouleversements. En cause, la résilience à toute épreuve d'un système de pouvoir qui s'est paré d'atours démocratiques mais qui fonctionne en réalité comme une oligarchie aux composantes communautaires, confessionnelles, miliciennes, politiques et financières.