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Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- CONTENTS -- Preface -- Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview -- PART I: The Dark Side of Paper Currency: Tax and Regulatory Evasion, Crime, and Security Issues -- Chapter 2: The Early Development of Coins and Paper Currency -- Chapter 3: Size and Composition of Global Currency Supplies, and the Share Held Abroad -- Chapter 4: Holdings of Currency in the Domestic, Legal, Tax- Paying Economy -- Chapter 5: Currency Demand in the Underground Economy -- Chapter 6: Seigniorage -- Chapter 7: A Plan for Phasing Out Most Paper Currency -- PART II: Negative Interest Rates -- Chapter 8: The Cost of the Zero Bound Constraint -- Chapter 9: Higher Inflation Targets, Nominal GDP, Escape Clauses, and Fiscal Policy -- Chapter 10: Other Paths to Negative Interest Rates -- Chapter 11: Other Possible Downsides to Negative Nominal Policy Rates -- Chapter 12: Negative Interest Rates as a Violation of Trust and a Step Away from Rule- Based Systems -- PART III: International Dimensions and Digital Currencies -- Chapter 13: International Dimensions to Phasing Out Paper Currency -- Chapter 14: Digital Currencies and Gold -- Afterword to the Paperback Edition -- Final Thoughts -- Acknowledgments -- Appendix -- Notes -- References -- Index.

"Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics in out-of-sample comparisons, misinterpretation of some tests, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time windows has led many studies to overstate even the relatively thin positive results that have been found. We find that by allowing for common cross-country shocks in our panel forecasting specification, we are able to generate some improvement, but even that improvement is not entirely robust to the forecast window, and much of the gain appears to come from non-structural rather than structural factors"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Authors' Note -- The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction -- 13 - The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison -- 14 - The Aftermath of Financial Crises -- 15 - The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? -- 16 - Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil -- Notes -- About the Authors.

Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- LIST OF TABLES -- LIST OF FIGURES -- LIST OF BOXES -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE -- PART I. Financial Crises: An Operational Primer -- PART II. Sovereign External Debt Crises -- PART III. The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default -- PART IV. Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes -- PART V. The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction -- PART VI. What Have We Learned? -- DATA APPENDIXES -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- NAME INDEX -- SUBJECT INDEX