Suchergebnisse

This article tackles the problem of controversies expressed by experts in the field of estimating and managing ionizing radiation risks. We analyze the paradigms that were conceived on this subject, in particular the studies carried out by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), as well as the papers stating either that the effect of low doses is relatively weak or, on the contrary, relatively serious. Uncertainties, which taint the risk estimations, assume a particular importance because they are at the origin of the request for expert and value judgments and represent the critical point of the discussions on the ionizing radiation risks. Our study allows us to look further into the problem of the paradigm's formation, uncertainties, and expert and value judgments, and provides areas for consideration that may contribute to a better understanding of certain gridlocks in the decision‐making process, as regards to environmental, health, and energy policies.

AbstractA common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974–2016 in volcanic regions with "very‐high" threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, Steamboat Springs, CO, served as a control as it is a ski‐tourism community much like Mammoth Lakes in LVC. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by VALs at LVC from 1982–1983 and 1991–1997. While VALs associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short‐term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long‐term economic trends. Our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level VALs and from unrest involving lower‐level VAL notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. This provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. While disaster relief is provided by the U.S. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. The fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.

Swiss Hydropower (HP) is currently facing a wide range of challenges that have initiated a debate about future prospects and its role within the envisioned energy transition. Building on this debate, this paper provides an overview of the status and prospects of Swiss HP by identifying and evaluating the different drivers and uncertainties that Swiss HP faces. Based on a review and the perceptions held by some of the main Swiss HP stakeholders the two main topics that need to be addressed are the market driven impacts and the political, legal and social aspects. While the market dynamics cannot directly be influenced by Swiss companies or authorities, the regulatory framework can and needs to be adjusted. However, this requires a comprehensive stakeholder process and is at least a medium-term process.

Abstract. Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic
crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize
potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the
affected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the
effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using the small island of
Vulcano (southern Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the
overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the
percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous
evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. For
example, during the touristic (high) season between July and August, even
though the overall duration is similar for both evacuation strategies, after
∼ 6 h about 96 % of people would be evacuated with a
simultaneous evacuation, while only 86 % would be evacuated with a staged
evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of
evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and of the starting period with
respect to the touristic season. It reveals that if an evacuation lasting 3 to 6 months was initiated at the beginning or at the end of the touristic
season (i.e. June or November), it would cause a very different economic
impact on the tourism industry (about 78 %–88 % and 2 %–7 % of the total
annual turnover, respectively). Our results show how the assessment of
evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact carried out in
a pre-disaster context helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make
informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that
characterizes crises.