Food Crop Yields in 2050
In: Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050, S. 101-122
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In: Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050, S. 101-122
In: Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050, S. 73-99
In October 2018, the European Union (EU) launched an updated bioeconomy strategy with the aim of encouraging the substitution of fossil carbon with biomass feedstock in the industry and in energy production while preserving ecosystem services. The objective of the paper is to analyse the links between the EU bioeconomy strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and to assess what could be the main points of synergies and tensions between bioeconomy-related SDG targets. By semantically mapping the action plan of the 2018 EU bioeconomy strategy with the SDG targets, the paper finds that the bioeconomy strategy is aligned with 53 targets distributed in 12 of the 17 SDGs. Ex-post correlation analysis on bioeconomy-related SDGs indicators for 28 EU Member States (1990–2018) shows a predominance of synergies over trade-offs. More intense synergetic past developments (positive correlations) are found among clean energies (SDG 7), recycling (SDG 11), ecosystem preservation (SDG 15) and most of all other bioeconomy-related SDGs. Negative correlations are observed between agro-biodiversity (SDG 2), domestic material consumption of biomass (SDG 8 and 12), agriculture and industrial developments (SDG 2 and SDG 9) and a wide array of bioeconomy-related SDG indicators. The hotspots of strong correlations identified might be useful in further enrichment of ex-ante simulation models. From a policy coherence perspective, a wide range of policy instruments are already in place in the EU to foster synergies and may bring co-benefits. Policies oriented at preventing trade-offs are already in place but they have not overcome the antagonisms observed in this study yet. Change in practices, technical and technological innovations and the application of circular and 'cascading principles' are the most common fields of action.
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In October 2018, the European Union (EU) launched an updated bioeconomy strategy with the aim of encouraging the substitution of fossil carbon with biomass feedstock in the industry and in energy production while preserving ecosystem services. The objective of the paper is to analyse the links between the EU bioeconomy strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and to assess what could be the main points of synergies and tensions between bioeconomy-related SDG targets. By semantically mapping the action plan of the 2018 EU bioeconomy strategy with the SDG targets, the paper finds that the bioeconomy strategy is aligned with 53 targets distributed in 12 of the 17 SDGs. Ex-post correlation analysis on bioeconomy-related SDGs indicators for 28 EU Member States (1990–2018) shows a predominance of synergies over trade-offs. More intense synergetic past developments (positive correlations) are found among clean energies (SDG 7), recycling (SDG 11), ecosystem preservation (SDG 15) and most of all other bioeconomy-related SDGs. Negative correlations are observed between agro-biodiversity (SDG 2), domestic material consumption of biomass (SDG 8 and 12), agriculture and industrial developments (SDG 2 and SDG 9) and a wide array of bioeconomy-related SDG indicators. The hotspots of strong correlations identified might be useful in further enrichment of ex-ante simulation models. From a policy coherence perspective, a wide range of policy instruments are already in place in the EU to foster synergies and may bring co-benefits. Policies oriented at preventing trade-offs are already in place but they have not overcome the antagonisms observed in this study yet. Change in practices, technical and technological innovations and the application of circular and 'cascading principles' are the most common fields of action.
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In: Structural change and economic dynamics, Band 60, S. 290-301
ISSN: 1873-6017
In its revised bioeconomy strategy, the European Union (EU) has extended the scope of activities to include services. Employing an output-based approach, this study quantifies the contribution of bioeconomy services to gross domestic product and employment in the EU Member States over 2008–2017. Moreover, it also identifies the main sectoral sources of employment and growth within bioeconomy services. The choice of Eurostat statistics ensures data harmonisation across countries and continuity for future updates, although important data needs are identified to enhance the representation of bioeconomy services within European statistical frameworks. In 2015–2017, economic growth was stronger in bioeconomy services than in the total EU economy. Bioeconomy services accounted for between 5.0–8.6% and 10.2–16.9% of EU gross domestic product and the EU labour force, respectively, whilst three service sectors account for more than 60% of bioeconomy services employment and value added. Interestingly, in the decade up to 2017, labour productivity in bioeconomy services improved.
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In its revised bioeconomy strategy, the European Union (EU) has extended the scope of activities to include services. Employing an output-based approach, this study quantifies the contribution of bioeconomy services to gross domestic product and employment in the EU Member States over 2008–2017. Moreover, it also identifies the main sectoral sources of employment and growth within bioeconomy services. The choice of Eurostat statistics ensures data harmonisation across countries and continuity for future updates, although important data needs are identified to enhance the representation of bioeconomy services within European statistical frameworks. In 2015–2017, economic growth was stronger in bioeconomy services than in the total EU economy. Bioeconomy services accounted for between 5.0–8.6% and 10.2–16.9% of EU gross domestic product and the EU labour force, respectively, whilst three service sectors account for more than 60% of bioeconomy services employment and value added. Interestingly, in the decade up to 2017, labour productivity in bioeconomy services improved.
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In: Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050, S. 49-58
In its revised bioeconomy strategy, the European Union (EU) has extended the scope of activities to include services. Employing an output-based approach, this study quantifies the contribution of bioeconomy services to gross domestic product and employment in the EU Member States over 2008-2017. Moreover, it also identifies the main sectoral sources of employment and growth within bioeconomy services. The choice of Eurostat statistics ensures data harmonisation across countries and continuity for future updates, although important data needs are identified to enhance the representation of bioeconomy services within European statistical frameworks. In 2015-2017, economic growth was stronger in bioeconomy services than in the total EU economy. Bioeconomy services accounted for between 5.0-8.6% and 10.2-16.9% of EU gross domestic product and the EU labour force, respectively, whilst three service sectors account for more than 60% of bioeconomy services employment and value added. Interestingly, in the decade up to 2017, labour productivity in bioeconomy services improved. ; Published
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In: Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050, S. 141-164
In: Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050, S. 179-195
Under the auspices of the EU's new Circular Economy Action Plan and Bioeconomy Strategy, the usage of sustainably renewable biomass for bio-based chemicals is a part-solution for addressing the multidimensional challenges of (inter alia) growth and employment, food and energy security, climate change and biodiversity. Unfortunately, the lack of a formal system of European data classification and collection presents a major obstacle to measuring, monitoring and ex-ante modelling of the bio-based chemicals sector, which clouds the ability to make science-based policy and legislative judgements. Employing a combination of different data sources and plausible assumptions, this paper seeks to overcome some of these data gaps through the compilation of a meaningful set of economic and sustainability indicators for specific bio-based chemical activities and products. Due to the variety of data sources employed for each indicator, a data quality index is constructed, whilst rigorous comparisons with other studies and further critical discussion reaffirms the general observation of poor data quality. Subject to these data and methodological limitations, this paper analyses the performance of bio-based chemical industries. As long as official data sources lack adequate information systems, the current paper serves as a springboard for lowering the data 'entry costs' behind this intricate sector, encouraging further knowledge-sharing and serving as a replication template for other regions. ; Published
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Les récentes " émeutes de la faim " nous le rappellent de façon dramatique: l'alimentation et l'agriculture sont un enjeu majeur de ce siècle. Au-delà de l'urgence actuelle, l'agriculture mondiale doit relever un triple défi : celui de la croissance démographique - nous serons 9 milliards en 2050 - et de la sécurité alimentaire en quantité et qualité, celui de la protection de l'environnement et des ressources naturelles, et celui de la raréfaction des énergies fossiles. Dans cette perspective, nous avons pris l'initiative, au début de l'année 2006, de développer une capacité d'analyse des équilibres possibles des systèmes alimentaires et agricoles mondiaux à l'horizon 2050. Le présent document résume quelques résultats de cette prospective "Agrimonde". Notre objectif est double: doter nos deux organismes, et plus généralement notre pays, d'un outil de réflexion sur les alimentations et les agricultures du monde, et identifier les questions prioritaires de recherche
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Recent food riots brought home the crucial importance of food and agriculture in dramatic fashion. They are one of this century¿s major concerns. Beyond the current crisis, world agriculture must address three challenges: demographic growth - we will be 9 billion people in 2050 - and food security in both quantity and quality; protection of the environment and natural resources; and the growing scarcity of fossil fuels. In this perspective, we decided in early 2006 to take the initiative of developing a capacity to analyse the possible balances of global food and agricultural systems in 2050. This document summarises some of the results of this "Agrimonde" foresight study. We have a twofold objective: to provide our two institutions, and more generally our country, with a basis for discussion of global food and agriculture issues, and to identify the top priority research questions submitted to CIRAD and INRA and to international agricultural research as a whole. The challenge of food forces us to understand and plan ahead, and to carry out research through debated priorities.
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The EU Bioeconomy Strategy, updated in 2018, in its Action Plan pledges an EU-wide, internationally coherent monitoring system to track economic, environmental and social progress towards a sustainable bioeconomy. This paper presents the approach taken by the European Commission's (EC) Joint Research Centre (JRC) to develop such a system. To accomplish this, we capitalise on (1) the experiences of existing indicator frameworks; (2) stakeholder knowledge and expectations; and (3) national experiences and expertise. This approach is taken to ensure coherence with other bioeconomy-related European monitoring frameworks, the usefulness for decision-making and consistency with national and international initiatives to monitor the bioeconomy. We develop a conceptual framework, based on the definition of a sustainable bioeconomy as stated in the Strategy, for a holistic analysis of the trends in the bioeconomy sectors, following the three pillars of sustainability (economy, society and environment). From this conceptual framework, we derive an implementation framework that aims to highlight the synergies and trade-offs across the five objectives of the Bioeconomy Strategy in a coherent way. The EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System will be publicly available on the web platform of the EC Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy.
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