Suchergebnisse

BACKGROUND: Progress towards the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy is monitored by assessing tuberculosis (TB) incidence, often derived from TB notification, assuming complete case detection and reporting. This assumption is unlikely to hold in many settings, including European Union (EU) countries. AIM: We aimed to assess observed and estimated completeness of TB notification through inventory studies and capture–recapture (CRC) methodology in six EU countries: Croatia, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Portugal Slovenia. METHODS: We performed record linkage, case ascertainment and CRC analyses of data collected retrospectively from at least three national TB-related registers in each country between 2014 and 2016. RESULTS: Observed completeness of TB notification by inventory studies was 73.9% in Croatia, 98.7% in Denmark, 83.6% in Finland, 81.6% in the Netherlands, 85.8% in Portugal and 100% in Slovenia. Subsequent CRC analysis estimated completeness of TB notification to be 98.4% in Denmark, 76.5% in Finland and 77.0% in Portugal. In Croatia, CRC analyses produced implausible results while in the Netherlands and Slovenia, it was methodologically considered not meaningful. CONCLUSION: Inventory studies and CRC methodology suggest a TB notification completeness between 73.9% and 100% in the six EU countries. Mandatory reporting by clinicians and laboratories, and cross-checking of registers, strongly contributes to accurate notification rates, but hospital episode registers likely contain a considerable proportion of false-positive TB records and are thus less useful. Further strengthening routine surveillance to count TB cases, i.e. incidence, accurately by employing record-linkage of high-quality TB registers should make CRC studies obsolete in EU countries.

Large carnivores living in tropical rainforests are under immense pressure from the rapid conversion of their habitat. In response, millions of dollars are spent on conserving these species. However, the cost-effectiveness of such investments is poorly understood and this is largely because the requisite population estimates are difficult to achieve at appropriate spatial scales for these secretive species. Here, we apply a robust detection/non-detection sampling technique to produce the first reliable population metric (occupancy) for a critically endangered large carnivore; the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae). From 20072009, seven landscapes were surveyed through 13,511 km of transects in 394 grid cells (17×17 km). Tiger sign was detected in 206 cells, producing a naive estimate of 0.52. However, after controlling for an unequal detection probability (where p=0.13±0.017; ±S.E.), the estimated tiger occupancy was 0.72±0.048. Whilst the Sumatra-wide survey results gives cause for optimism, a significant negative correlation between occupancy and recent deforestation was found. For example, the Northern Riau landscape had an average deforestation rate of 9.8%/yr and by far the lowest occupancy (0.33±0.055). Our results highlight the key tiger areas in need of protection and have led to one area (Leuser-Ulu Masen) being upgraded as a global priority for wild tiger conservation. However, Sumatra has one of the highest global deforestation rates and the two largest tiger landscapes identified in this study will become highly fragmented if their respective proposed roads networks are approved. Thus, it is vital that the Indonesian government tackles these threats, e.g. through improved land-use planning, if it is to succeed in meeting its ambitious National Tiger Recovery Plan targets of doubling the number of Sumatran tigers by 2022. ; Peer Reviewed