Suchergebnisse

The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. In general, such replacement of population parameters by sample estimates gives poorer out-of-sample than in-sample performance. We show that to improve out-of-sample performance the size of the bet should be shrunk in the presence of this parameter uncertainty, and compare some estimates of the shrinkage factor. From a simulation study and from an analysis of some tennis betting data we show that the shrunken Kelly approaches developed here offer an improvement over the "raw" Kelly criterion. One approximate estimate of the shrinkage factor gives a "back of envelope" correction to the Kelly criterion that could easily be used by bettors. We also study bet shrinkage and swelling for general risk-averse utility functions and discuss the general implications of such results for decision theory.

"First published in 1962 and based on a series of lectures from 1956, Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom provides the definitive statement of an immensely influential economic philosophy-one in which competitive capitalism serves as both a device for achieving economic freedom and a necessary condition for political freedom. In short, the book asks: how can we benefit from the promise of government while avoiding the threat it poses to individual freedom? The result is an accessible text that was selected by the Times Literary Supplement as one of the "hundred most influential books since the war." Enduring in its impact and esteem, the book has sold well over half a million copies in English, has been translated into eighteen languages, and continues to profoundly inform economic thinking and policymaking. This edition includes prefaces written by Friedman for both the 1982 and 2002 reissues of the book, as well as a new foreword by Binyamin Appelbaum, economics editor for the New York Times and author of The Economists' Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society (Little, Brown, 2019)."

Textbook for Project Management Fundamentals

Article informing current naval officers how to ensure families will still receive benefits from the Navy in case he died on active duty. Article includes information on six months' pay, pension, government insurance, balance of pay due, effects of deceased, funeral expenses, and a sample affidavit.

Article informing current naval officers how to ensure families will still receive benefits from the Navy in case he died on active duty. Article includes information on six months' pay, pension, government insurance, balance of pay due, effects of deceased, funeral expenses, and a sample affidavit.

Mycoplasma genitalium, an organism first isolated from the urethras of two men with nongonococcal urethritis, has been found in throat specimens from military recruits participating in an inactivated Mycoplasma pneumoniae vaccine field trial in 1974-1975. Four of 16 preserved throat isolates, previously identified as strains of M. pneumoniae, have now been shown to be mixtures of M. pneumoniae and M. genitalium. Purification of these mixed mycoplasmas by selection of single colonies confirmed the presence of M. genitalium. Identification of M. genitalium was based upon the occurrence of a species-specific 140-kilodalton protein adhesin in these isolates and their serologic reactivity to an M. genitalium antiserum. The frequent occurrence of both M. pneumoniae and M. genitalium in a number of these throat specimens, in combination with their shared antigenic cross-reactivities, suggests the likelihood that M. genitalium strains are easily missed in the usual laboratory identification procedures. What role M. genitalium may play in human respiratory disease remains to be determined.