A review of uncertainties in technology experience curves
In: Energy economics, Band 34, Heft 3, S. 762-771
ISSN: 1873-6181
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In: Energy economics, Band 34, Heft 3, S. 762-771
ISSN: 1873-6181
The costs of intermittent renewable energy systems (IRES) and power storage technologies are compared on a level playing field to those of natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO 2 capture and storage (NGCC-CCS). To account for technological progress over time, an "experience curve" approach is used to project future levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) based on technology progress ratios and deployment rates in worldwide energy scenarios, together with European energy and technology cost estimates. Under base case assumptions, the LCOE in 2040 for baseload NGCC-CCS plants is estimated to be 71 € 2012 /MWh. In contrast, the LCOE for electricity generated intermittently from IRES is estimated at 68, 82, and 104 € 2012 /MWh for concentrated solar power, offshore wind, and photovoltaic systems, respectively. Considering uncertainties in costs, deployment rates and geographical conditions, LCOE ranges for IRES are wider than for NGCC-CCS. We also assess energy storage technologies versus NGCC-CCS as backup options for IRES. Here, for base case assumptions NGCC-CCS with an LCOE of 90 € 2012 /MWh in 2040 is more costly than pumped hydro storage (PHS) or compressed air and energy storage (CAES) with LCOEs of 57 and 88 € 2012 /MWh, respectively. Projected costs for battery backup are 78, 149, and 321 € 2012 /MWh for Zn-Br, ZEBRA, and Li-ion battery systems, respectively. Finally, we compare four stylised low-carbon systems on a common basis (including all ancillary costs for IRES). In the 2040 base case, the system employing only NGCC-CCS has the lowest LCOE and lowest cost of CO 2 avoided with CO 2 emissions of 45 kg/MWh. A zero CO 2 emission system with IRES plus PHS as backup is 42% more expensive in terms of LCOE, and 13% more costly than a system with IRES plus NGCC-CCS backup with emissions of 23 kg CO 2 /MWh. Sensitivity results and study limitations are fully discussed within the paper.
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This paper reviews the regulatory history for nitrogen oxides (NOx) pollutant emissions from stationary sources,primarily in coal-fired power plants. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the 1970 Clean Air Act where National Ambient Air Quality Standards were established to protect public health and welfare. We use patent data to show that in the cases of Japan, Germany, and the United States, innovations in NOx control technologies did not occur until stringent government regulations were in place, thus "forcing" innovation. We also demonstrate that reductions in the capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of new generations of high-efficiency NOx control technologies, selective catalytic reduction (SCR), are consistently associated with the increasing adoption of the control technology: the so-called learning-by-doing phenomena. The results show that as cumulative world coal-fired SCR capacity doubles, capital costs decline to 86% and O&M costs to 58% of their original values. The observed changes in SCR technology reflect the impact of technological advance as well as other factors, such as market competition and economies of scale.
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In: Law & policy, Band 27, Heft 2, S. 348-378
ISSN: 1467-9930
This paper explores the relationship between government actions and innovation in an environmental control technology—sulfur dioxide (SO2) control technologies for power plants—through the use of complementary research methods. Its findings include the importance of regulation and the anticipation of regulation in stimulating invention; the greater role of regulation, as opposed to public R&D expenditures, in inducing invention; the importance of regulatory stringency in determining technical pathways and stimulating collaboration; and the importance of regulatory‐driven technological diffusion in contributing to operating experience and post‐adoption innovation in cost and performance. A number of policy implications are drawn from this work.
In: Law & policy, Band 27, Heft 2, S. 348-378
ISSN: 0265-8240
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is broadly recognised as having the potential to play a key role in meeting climate change targets, delivering low carbon heat and power, decarbonising industry and, more recently, its ability to facilitate the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, despite this broad consensus and its technical maturity, CCS has not yet been deployed on a scale commensurate with the ambitions articulated a decade ago. Thus, in this paper we review the current state-of-the-art of CO2 capture, transport, utilisation and storage from a multi-scale perspective, moving from the global to molecular scales. In light of the COP21 commitments to limit warming to less than 2 °C, we extend the remit of this study to include the key negative emissions technologies (NETs) of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Cognisant of the non-technical barriers to deploying CCS, we reflect on recent experience from the UK's CCS commercialisation programme and consider the commercial and political barriers to the large-scale deployment of CCS. In all areas, we focus on identifying and clearly articulating the key research challenges that could usefully be addressed in the coming decade. ; ISSN:1754-5692 ; ISSN:1754-5706
BASE
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is broadly recognised as having the potential to play a key role in meeting climate change targets, delivering low carbon power, decarbonising industry and, more recently, its ability to facilitate the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, despite this broad consensus and technical maturity, CCS has not yet been deployed on a scale commensurate with the ambitions articulated a decade ago. Thus, in this paper we review the current state-of-the-art of CO2 capture, transport, utilisation and storage from a multi-scale perspective, moving from the global to molecular scales. In light of the COP21 commitments to limit warming to less than 2 C, we extend the remit of this study to include the key negative emissions technologies (NETs) of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Cognisant of the non-technical barriers to deploying CCS, we capitalise on recent experience from the UK's CCS commercialisation programme and consider the commercial and political barriers to the largescale deployment of CCS. In all areas, we focus on identifying and clearly articulating the key research challenges that could usefully be addressed in the coming decade.
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