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Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to reevaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester's laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. ; Funding for this work was provided by the SimulPast Consolider Ingenio project (CSD2010-00034) of the former Ministry for Science and Innovation of the Spanish Government and the European Research Council Advanced Grant EPNet (340828). ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (published version)

Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to reevaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester's laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. ; Funding for this work was provided by the SimulPast Consolider Ingenio project (CSD2010-00034) of the former Ministry for Science and Innovation of the Spanish Government and the European Research Council Advanced Grant EPNet (340828). ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (published version)

El artículo forma parte de un monográfico dedicado a campos de batalla y espacios de guerra ; La aplicación de la teoría de juegos puede ser un recurso muy importante en el análisis de los campos de batalla de la época clásica. A través de las herramientas que proporciona esta teoría es posible hacer estudios de enfrentamientos militares en un área para comprender las variables en juego, la importancia de la geografía del paisaje en los hechos acaecidos y las consecuencias de la batalla. Se propone el diseño de un juego para estudiar un caso concreto: la campaña militar de Juilo César en Llerda durante la guerra civil romana. ; Cataluña ; Consejería de Educación y Cultura. Secretaría General; Av. de la Fama, 15; 30006 Murcia; Tel. +34968279685; Fax +34968279835; mjesus.ruiz@carm.es ; ESP

El artículo forma parte de un monográfico dedicado a campos de batalla y espacios de guerra ; La aplicación de la teoría de juegos puede ser un recurso muy importante en el análisis de los campos de batalla de la época clásica. A través de las herramientas que proporciona esta teoría es posible hacer estudios de enfrentamientos militares en un área para comprender las variables en juego, la importancia de la geografía del paisaje en los hechos acaecidos y las consecuencias de la batalla. Se propone el diseño de un juego para estudiar un caso concreto: la campaña militar de Juilo César en Llerda durante la guerra civil romana. ; Cataluña ; Consejería de Educación y Cultura. Secretaría General; Av. de la Fama, 15; 30006 Murcia; Tel. +34968279685; Fax +34968279835; mjesus.ruiz@carm.es ; ESP

Archaeological studies on battlefields may see great benefits from simulated military engagements: simulations help testing hypotheses based on historical data and may also help with validating methodologies used on the site. Such methods, however, require high-performance computing expertise and considerable computational power. With the emergence of on-demand computing instances in the cloud, distributed computations have become available to technically every organization or individual. This puts large-scale battlefield simulations within the reach of archaeologists, and the cloud paradigm also lowers the required technological expertise, potentially leading to a more widespread adoption of such simulation methods. ; Sponsorship : HPC-EUROPA2, CONSOLIDER-INGENIO2010

The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of 'cultural adaptation' from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory.

The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of "cultural adaptation" from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory. ; This paper resulted from discussions at the ICREA Workshop "Small-Scale Societies and Environmental Transformations: Coevolutionary Dynamics" funded by ICREA Conference Awards. VRG acknowledges financial support from ERC grant agreement No. FP7-261971-LEK and from the CONSOLIDER SimulPast Project (CSD2010-00034). ALB worked on this paper on a contract from the Juan de la Cierva Programme (JCI-2011-10734, MICINN-MINECO, Spain) and on a research fellowship from The Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. This work contributes to the ICTA Unit of Excellence (MinECo, MDM2015-0552). ; Postprint (author's final draft)

The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of "cultural adaptation" from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory. ; This paper resulted from discussions at the ICREA Workshop "Small-Scale Societies and Environmental Transformations: Coevolutionary Dynamics" funded by ICREA Conference Awards. VRG acknowledges financial support from ERC grant agreement No. FP7-261971-LEK and from the CONSOLIDER SimulPast Project (CSD2010-00034). ALB worked on this paper on a contract from the Juan de la Cierva Programme (JCI-2011-10734, MICINN-MINECO, Spain) and on a research fellowship from The Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. This work contributes to the ICTA Unit of Excellence (MinECo, MDM2015-0552). ; Postprint (author's final draft)

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 ; The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of "cultural adaptation" from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory.

- ; The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal) adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of "cultural adaptation" from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory. cultural adaptation; cultural evolution; multilevel selection; resilience