Suchergebnisse

Formation of new borders has transformed the adjacent territories of Russia and Kazakhstan into a new political and socio-economic space. The purpose of the work is to analyze demographic processes with the account of the territorial features of the Russian-Kazakh border area in the conditions of modern political, economic and social integrations. The use of methods of economic and statistical analysis made it possible to identify the vector and dynamics of the demographic processes in the adjacent border territories. Based on the analysis of spatial differentiation of population changes by administrative entities of the Russian-Kazakh cross–border area in the period 1989–2021, there were identified six regional groups with different character of the demographic situation — from critical to most favorable. As a result of the analysis of demographic indicators, significant differences were revealed depending on the level of the studied territories. At the macro level, on both sides of the Russian-Kazakh border, there is generally a similar demographic situation both in its orientation and in the relative values of the main demographic indicators. At the meso level, there is a multidirectional dynamics of regional indicators. The leaders of population growth are mainly resource-producing regions. The regions, in which the population has decreased most of all, are adjacent border territories, between which there is a low asymmetry of indicators and almost complete synchronicity of the ongoing processes. At the micro level, comparing cities and districts, there are significant contrasts in almost all demographic indicators. Moreover, in the Kazakh part of the border area, these differences are more significant. In general, there is the same trend throughout the border regions — the population is moving to more developed areas — from depressed rural areas to district centers and small towns, from small and medium-sized cities to large regional centers and big cities.

Assessment of the readiness of regions for the occurrence of critical situations is atopical area of research in modern conditions. The problem of high mortality in Russia determines the importance of studying the factors that shape the current state of the socio-demographic system of the population and the prerequisites for its change in the future or in the present under the influence of negative processes. To form an objective picture of the current situation, two areas are identified: potential (the state of the region's healthcare system) and demographic stability (risks of population decline), on the basis of which complex integral indices are calculated and regions are ranked. The specificity of the author's approach to the analysis consists in the complex use of demographic indicators, morbidity indicators and the functioning of the healthcare system. As a result of the analysis, it was found out that an ambiguous situation has developed in the regions. According to the assessment of demographic sustainability, the republics of the North Caucasus have become the best, but there is also the lowest level of development of the healthcare system. The opposite situation is observed in remote and sparsely populated regions of the Far East — Sakhalin Oblast, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug — with high indicators of the potential of the healthcare system there are high demographic risks. The depth of the consequences of the pandemic was reflected in the form of excess mortality. In the first year, the regions of the North Caucasus became leaders in terms of mortality growth — Chechnya (by 44%), Dagestan (by 32%) and Ingushetia (by 27%).The most stable were Adygea, Sevastopol and Buryatia — excess mortality did not exceed 6%. In the second year, actively increasing mortality has already affected all regions, with the exception of the Republic of Tyva and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug having the lowest proportion of the population over working age. The proposed concept of a two-way study of regions will make it possible to trace the main problem areas in dynamics and give an opportunity to prevent the consequences of other possible force majeure.