Suchergebnisse

The article assesses the probability of fulfilling the tasks set by the President of the Russian Federation in the May 2018 Decree in the field of population reproduction. Each of the tasks outlines the current situation, current trends and the most likely results. Factors that contribute to or counteract solutions to the designated problems are identified. In particular, increase or even preservation of the number of births will be hindered by constant reduction since 2015 in the number of women of active reproductive age (25-39 years), who account for 4/5 of all births [1]. Their number will reduce from 17.9 million in 2015 to 15.0 million in 2024, and up to 12.0 million in 2030 [1]. Reduction in deaths from circulatory diseases and neoplasm will be prevented by: the tendency of population ageing; persistence and impossibility of rapid eradicating bad habits, such as smoking, regular excessive drinking; poor quality of food and alcohol, etc. In addition, in the future, with increase in the life expectancy (LE) in Russia, those, who have been cured of diseases related to other major causes of death, eventually will start dying from circulatory diseases or oncology. It is these diseases that are the leading causes of death in countries with high LE. There are made the following conclusions: it will be actually impossible to achieve the goal of "increasing the population of the country" (set in the Decree) only by reproductive means in the near future in Russia. To solve Russia's general demographic problems (ensuring a positive overall population growth; optimizing the placement of the population on its territory not only in the economic, but also in the geopolitical interests of the state; redemption of the structural demographic wave volatility; etc.), it is necessary to follow coordinated reproduction and migration routes.

The article summarizes the natural increase / decrease in the population of the regions and macroregions of the Russian Federation for 1992-2019. Depopulation is a steady natural population decline, it's characteristic of most European territories (countries or parts thereof), whose population was heavily affected in World War II. This applies to both sides of the conflict — and fascist Germany (as well as militaristic Asian Japan), on the one hand; and the territories of modern Poland, the Republic of Belarus, Ukraine, the European part of the Russian Federation, parts of the former Yugoslavia, on the other hand. As a result, since the 1970s the population of these territories began to enter a period of depopulation, the excess of mortality over fertility. This happened as a result of a downward demographic wave, the so-called «first echo of the Second World War», as well as due to global trends of declining birth rates in the entire developed and rapidly developing world. In general, over the 28 years of the post-Soviet period from the beginning of 1992 to the beginning of2020, depopulation covered all European regions of Russia with the exception of 5 republics of the North Caucasus and the Republic of Kalmykia. A somewhat different picture was observed beyond the Ural Range. Here, the depopulation in most large industrial regions was primarily due to the post-Soviet migration outflow of the population to the European part of the country — to the capital regions and plains of Southern Russia with a favorable climate. Positive natural growth was only in the oil and gas bearing Tyumen oblast, the Republic of Yakutia (Sakha), Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, as well as in the republics of Southern Siberia, whose indigenous population professes Buddhism. The article presents an analysis for each of the typical groups of Russian regions, provides statistics for 28 years of the demographic (reproductive) development of territories, substantiates conclusions, among which the main one is the following. The decrease in the volume of current and upcoming demographic human losses in Russia depends on the consistency, scientific justification, efficiency, effectiveness and selectivity of the country's demographic policy.