Suchergebnisse

The aim of this study is to examine how bankruptcy prediction models forecast financial strength for family businesses. Three predictive tests are used to study financial strength for three consecutive years (2016, 2017 and 2018) for a sample of 462,200 active Hungarian companies using the Amadeus database and expert data. Complex statistical model tests for credit assessment (bankruptcy predictions) are performed by size and ownership of the companies. It is found that the revised Altman model is impeded by a superfluous high weighting on net working capital; therefore, IN05 Quick Test predicted better chances for businesses in generating cash flows in a small emerging economy. By re-formulating the Bankruptcy Index of Karas and Režňáková and refining its coefficients, the modified Bankruptcy Index is more robust for predicting the financial health of family businesses on a cash flow basis. The test results of this modified Bankruptcy Index confirm the relative advance of family businesses in creating added value for owners. Practical implications arise from a management perspective: family businesses work better with predictability of survival in accordance with the model; therefore, their ability to adapt to financial constraints caused by crises is also more promising.

AbstractThe SARS‐CoV‐2 coronavirus pandemic has raised public debt sustainability issues, especially for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). Developing countries with limited fiscal space have had to take on significant external debts to help deal with the negative effects of the pandemic. This has led to further increases in the debt levels of these countries, with the potential to trigger a debt default. Addressing these issues, this study uses a framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis. The results confirm the impact of the SARS‐CoV‐2 coronavirus pandemic on the debt levels of Ghana and Kenya. This study recommends the creation of domestic fiscal buffers and fiscal space toward the attainment of long‐term debt sustainability, contrary to the popular view of offering debt relief to these countries.