Suchergebnisse

Recently, researchers have seen the need to study the increase in life expectancy and thus, mortality decline throughout the years in order to understand population structure for policymakers, individuals, governments, pension funds and insurance companies. The first and most accepted mortality model is the one of Lee and Carter (1995) and has been widely used in different papers in order to fit and forecast mortality. The main objective of this research is to study the effects of macroeconomic factors on human mortality. For this reason, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita parameter, considered as a good indicator of a country's economic growth, will be added into the model as proposed by Niu and Melenberg (2014) in order to allow for more precise interpretations of the model. This paper will analyze Austrian population for the years 1960-2017, and its parameters will be estimated by Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and finally Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure will be used in order to forecast mortality for the next 10 years with 95% confidence intervals.