THIS ARTICLE ATTEMPTS TO IDENTIFY, AND EVALUATE, THE PRIMARY FACTORS EXPLAINING THE DECREASING TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS FROM 1960 TO 1976. THE MOST IMPORTANT CAUSES: AN ELECTORATE BOTH OLDER AND YOUNGER, DECREASED POLITICAL EFFICACY, DECREASED RELIANCE ON NEWSPAPERS FOR INFORMATION, AND LESS INTENSE PARTISAN IDENTIFICATIONS.
Examines the public's images of the Democratic and Republican parties, focusing on racial differences in those images, and the role of party identification; data from statewide opinion polls in Mississippi and Alabama.
CPS survey data from 1952 to 1978 are employed in a comparative analysis of the effects of three predictors on voting for House, Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential candidates. Among the findings are: party identification is equally important in voting for all four offices, and despite a declining effect it is still the most important predictor of voting; presidential coattails especially serve as a vote guide for the less informed, and are more important in federal than state elections; incumbency is most important to the moderately aware voter, and only since 1966 has it been most important in House elections.
The CPS 1972-1976 panel is employed to test numerous principles of balance theory on Americans' political cognitions. Evidential support is found for Heider's original formulation of balance theory pertaining to dichotomous variables comprising a triad and extensions of this theory to structures of more than three cognitions, and variables measured at the interval level. Political reality effects, rational policy evaluation processes, and alternative psychological perspectives cannot adequately explain our data patterns. Other findings are: people attain balance in diverse ways by changing any of their cognitions; the more politically sophisticated are more affected by balance processes; balance theory has implications for the vote decision. The implications of the study for the nature of American democracy are also addressed.
The nature of policy differences between political strata are examined with survey data from 1952 to 1976. In identifying policy biases, one must consider the interaction between issue area, time period, and partisan grouping. Prior to 1966, a conservative bias on do mestic economic issues existed among the more active, due to the conservative bias of the higher SES and hyperactivity among conservative Republicans. After 1966, no consistent bias on domestic economic issues existed among the more active, due to hyperactivity among liberal Democrats as well as conservative Republicans. After 1966 a definite liberal bias existed among activists on black rights and social-cultural issues, because of the greater liberalism of the more educated, and hyperactivity among Democratic liberals. Foreign affairs patterns are more complex, though there is usually an inter nationalist bias among activists, due to the greater internationalism of the more educated.
Modern Republican gains in the South culminating in the 1994 GOP congressional landslide have sparked renewed interest in the possibility that we are in a realigning era. Statewide opinion polls from a key southern state over a sixteen‐year time frame illustrate considerable change in the public's partisan identifications, especially among white conservatives. Republican gains may also be prompted by positive public reactions to GOP presidents and a governor and negative reactions to their Democratic counterparts. Yet adroit actions by pragmatic white Democratic officeholders and emerging Republican factionalism have hindered further GOP gains in state offices, illustrating the continuing relevance of dealignment as people vote for the candidate instead of the party.
