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This research attempts to identify the determinants of budget forecast errors and explore the impact of the errors on the budget effectiveness. This study differs from the earlier studies such as including covering 90% of districts and cities, other studies on budget forecast error have not addressed how financial and governmental characteristics effect budget forecast error, and using a structural model to test the factors effecting budget forecast error and their impacts on budget effectiveness. The data are derived from Central Bureau of Statistics and local government website. It used the data of 444 local government for the period of 2006 to 2013, and analyzed them using a partial least square for testing the hypotheses. The results show that the significant factors affecting budget forecast errors are revenue growth, expenditure growth, and government complexity. The higher the revenue growth the greater the likelihood of budget forecast errors. Likewise, the greater the spending growth, the greater the budget forecast errors. The empirical evidence also suggests that budget forecast errors are bad for the economy. The implications of this findings are that local government must be more careful in projecting a growing income and expenditure budget, coordinate well so that work units can develop accurate budgets, and carry out a better monitoring function for all the main stages of budgeting.

This study is to analyze the effect of local government characteristics consisting of size, age, status, population, number of work units (SKPD), employee expenditure and leverage on local financial independence as well as its impact on economic growth (GDP) and the Human Development Index (HDI) in the districts or cities in Indonesia. The sample used in this study amounted to 1003 financial statements of the local government districts or cities in Indonesia from 2009 to 2013. Samples were selected based on purposive sampling method. Data analysis technique used is Partial Least Square (PLS). The results show that size, age, status, population, number of SKPD, and have leverage positive and significant effect on the local financial independence. Employee expenditure has a positive and insignificant effect on the local financial independence. Local financial independence has negative and significant effect on economic growth. Local financial independence has positive and significant effect on the Human Development Index.

This study analyzes the effect of local revenue and village funds on inclusive village development with capital expenditure and economic growth as intervening variable in Indonesia. The research was conducted because the allocation of village funds since 2015 until now has not been able to realize inclusive village development. Inclusive village development is indicated by poverty, social welfare, and income inequality variables. Data source used is data secondary. Analysis method using Klassen Typology and Partial Least Square (PLS). Before doing the analysis of PLS will be done Klassen Typology, the districts in Indonesia are grouped into four quadrants namely Quadrant I (Emerging Region), Quadrant II (Prima Region), Quadrant III (Potential Area) and Quadrant IV (Rear Areas). The success of inclusive village development is influenced by independent variables and the position of the district in the four quadrants in the Klassen Typology. The conclusion of this research is that the success of village funds is dependent on the quality of village government officials which is shown in the position of each village in the 4 quadrants in the Klassen Typology.

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of village funds on social welfare of the district society in Maluku, North Maluku, Papua, and West Papua Provinces based on 2015-2018 data. The Village funds began to be distributed to all villages in these four provinces and other provinces in Indonesia in 2015. The data collection technique uses documentation technique, so that it produces secondary data in the form of a village funds, the Government Regional Budget, Gross Regional Domestic Product, and Human Development Index reports in four provinces which have been published on the official website of the Indonesian Statistics Agency. The sampling technique uses purposive sampling method with considerations in accordance with the objectives of the study. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it shows that village funds have not been able to influence on social welfare of the district society even though this has been accompanied by an allocation of capital expenditures and economic growth variables. There is a possibility that the size of the area in the villages in the four provinces and the quality of human resources for managing village funds in districts is an obstacle.