Results are part of a preliminary analysis concerning the value of DNI predictions from the IFS for the improvement of the operationalization of a CST system with similar configurations as the Andasol 3 CST power plant. For a 365-day period, the present results show high correlations between predictions of energy to grid based on measurements and IFS forecasts mainly for daily values (~0.94), while the lower correlations obtained for hourly values (~0.89) are due to cloud representation of the IFS during overcast periods, leading to small deviations with respect to those from measurements. Moreover, as means to measure the forecasting skill of the IFS, daily and hourly skill scores based on local measurements and a persistence model are obtained (0.67 and 0.53, respectively), demonstrating that the IFS has a good overall performance. These aspects show the value that forecasted DNI has in the operation management of CST power systems, and, consequently, in the electricity market. ; This work was co-funded by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund, framed in COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program Competitiveness and Internationalization), through the Institute of Earth Sciences (UID/GEO/04683/2013) with reference POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690, and through the projects DNI-A (ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000011), ALOP (ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000004) and INSHIP (H2020, grant agreement 731287). The initial recommendations of T. Fasquelle, P. Gilman (SAM Support) and R. Hogan, is recognized and appreciated. The authors are also thankful for the availability of the ECMWF and the Portuguese Meteorological Service (IPMA) in providing data. F. M. Lopes is thankful for the FCT scholarship (SFRH/BD/129580/2017), R. Conceição to the FCT scholarship (SFRH/BD/116344/2016), and H. G. Silva to DNI-A and INSHIP for his research contract.
Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in power-system management, scheduling, and dispatch operations. Accurate forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) are essential for an optimized operation strategy of concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems, particularly under clear-sky conditions during partly cloudy days. In this work, short-term forecasts from the radiative scheme McRad (Cycle 41R2) included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), the global numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), together with in-situ ground-based measurements, are used in a simulated linear parabolic-trough power system through the System Advisor Model (SAM). Results are part of a preliminary analysis concerning the value of DNI predictions from the IFS for the improvement of the operationalization of a CST system with similar configurations as the Andasol 3 CST power plant. For a 365-day period, the present results show high correlations between predictions of energy to grid based on measurements and IFS forecasts mainly for daily values (~0.94), while the lower correlations obtained for hourly values (~0.89) are due to cloud representation of the IFS during overcast periods, leading to small deviations with respect to those from measurements. Moreover, as means to measure the forecasting skill of the IFS, daily and hourly skill scores based on local measurements and a persistence model are obtained (0.67 and 0.53, respectively), demonstrating that the IFS has a good overall performance. These aspects show the value that forecasted DNI has in the operation management of CST power systems, and, consequently, in the electricity market. ; This work was co-funded by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund, framed in COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program Competitiveness and Internationalization), through the Institute of Earth Sciences (UID/GEO/04683/2013) with reference POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690, and through the projects DNI-A (ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000011), ALOP (ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000004) and INSHIP (H2020, grant agreement 731287). The initial recommendations of T. Fasquelle, P. Gilman (SAM Support) and R. Hogan, is recognized and appreciated. The authors are also thankful for the availability of the ECMWF and the Portuguese Meteorological Service (IPMA) in providing data. F. M. Lopes is thankful for the FCT scholarship (SFRH/BD/129580/2017), R. Conceição to the FCT scholarship (SFRH/BD/116344/2016), and H. G. Silva to DNI-A and INSHIP for his research contract.
The study of intermittent rivers is a critical and timely issue due to theirworldwide increase, triggered by several causes including climate change. The need to understand the response of intermittent river biota to water intermittency led us to conduct this study using benthic diatoms collected in southern Portugal. Benthic diatomswere explored in terms of assemblages, diversity indices, the Specific Pollution Sensitivity (SPI) Index, functional metrics (i.e. ecological guilds and life-forms) and conservation status. We verified that changes in water physicochemical characteristics were highly controlled by flow intermittency, which in turn is directly linked tometeorological variables (air temperature and precipitation). Changes in diatomassemblages reflect the aquatic regime of sites, changes in aquatic states through time and mesohabitats (dry biofilm, samples collected in pools or under flowing conditions). Species richness, on the other hand, did not reflect these differences, whilst Shannon diversity and Pielou's Evenness indices only reflected mesohabitat differences. The SPI distinguished sampling periods, and mesohabitats. The relative abundance of ecological guilds changed with aquatic states, with the low-profile guild dominating in eurheic and arheic conditions (except during Summer), being replaced bymotile taxa in summer arheic conditions, reflecting increases in nutrient and siltation. The hypothesis that benthic diatom assemblages in dry biofilm can be used as an indicator of ecological status during the dry-phase was validated, since no differences between the Ecological Quality Ratio determined in dry biofilm collected in Summer 2017 and the previous Spring 2017 in flowing water. A method is proposed for diatom sampling in dry biofilm, contributing to an integrated ecological status evaluation, which considers the dry-phase and enhances the reach of biomonitoring programs. ; European Union through the European Regional Development Fund, included in the COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program Competitiveness and Internationalization) through the ALOP (ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000004) project and the ICT project (UIDB/04683/2020) with the reference POCI-01-0145-FEDER 007690, and by the Science andManagement of Intermittent Rivers & Ephemeral Streams (SMIRES) COST Action (CA15113), http://www.smires.eu/
An unprecedented extreme Saharan dust event was registered in winter time from 20 to 23 February 2017 over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). We report on aerosol optical properties observed under this extreme dust intrusion through passive and active remote sensing techniques. For that, AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) and EARLINET (European Aerosol Research LIdar NETwork) databases are used. The sites considered are: Barcelona (41.38°N, 2.17°E), Burjassot (39.51°N, 0.42°W), Cabo da Roca (38.78°N, 9.50°W), Évora (38.57°N, 7.91°W), Granada (37.16°N, 3.61°W) and Madrid (40.45°N, 3.72°W). Large aerosol optical depths (AOD) and low Ångström exponents (AE) are observed. An AOD of 2.0 at 675 nm is reached in several stations. A maximum peak of 2.5 is registered in Évora. During and around the peak of AOD, AEs close to 0 and even slightly negative are measured. With regard to vertically-resolved aerosol optical properties, particle backscatter coefficients as high as 15 Mm−1 sr−1 at 355 nm are recorded at the lidar stations. Layer-mean lidar ratios are found in the range 40–55 sr at 355 nm and 34–61 sr at 532 nm during the event. The particle depolarization ratios are found to be constant inside the dust layer, and consistent from one site to another. Layer-mean values vary in the range 0.19–0.31. Another remarkable aspect of the event is the limited vertical distribution of the dust plume which never exceeds 5 km. The extreme aspect of the event also presented a nice case for testing the ability of two dust forecast models, BSC-DREAM8b and NMMB/BSC-Dust, to reproduce the arrival, the vertical distribution and the intensity of the dust plume over a long-range transport region. In the particular case of the February 2017 dust event, we found a large underestimation in the forecast of the extinction coefficient provided by BSC-DREAM8b at all heights independently of the site. In contrast NMMB/BSC-Dust forecasts presented a better agreement with the observations, especially in southwestern part of the IP. With regard to the forecast skill as a function of lead time, no clear degradation of the prognostic is appreciated at 24, 48 and 72 h for Évora and Granada stations (South). However the prognostic does degrade (bias increases and/or correlation decreases) for Barcelona (North), which is attributed to the fact that Barcelona is at a greater distance from the source region and to the singularity of the event. ; The research leading to these results has received funding from the H2020 program from the European Union (grant agreement no. 654109, 778349) and also from the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Economy and Competitiviness (MINECO, ref. CGL2013-45410-R, CGL2016-81092-R, CGL2017-85344-R, TEC2015-63832-P), the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (ref. CGL2017-90884-REDT); the CommSensLab "Maria de Maeztu" Unity of Excellence (ref. MDM-2016-0600) financed by the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación. Co-funding was also provided by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund (ref. POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690, ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000004, ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000011); by the Andalusia Regional Government (ref. P12-RNM-2409); by the Madrid Regional Government (projects TIGAS-CM, ref. Y2018/EMT-5177 and AIRTEC-CM, ref. P2018/EMT4329); by the University of Granada through "Plan Propio. Programa 9 Convocatoria 2013" and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and national funding (ref. SFRH/BSAB/143164/2019). The BSC-DREAM8b and NNMB/BSC-Dust (now NMMB-MONARCH) model simulations were performed by the Mare Nostrum supercomputer hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputer Center (BSC). S. Basart acknowledges the AXA Research Fund for supporting aerosol research at the BSC through the AXA Chair on Sand and Dust Storms Fund, as well as the InDust project (COST Action CA16202). The authors gratefully acknowledge the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) for the provision of the HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model and/or READY website (http://www.ready.noaa.gov) used in this publication. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (published version)
An unprecedented extreme Saharan dust event was registered in winter time from 20 to 23 February 2017 over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). We report on aerosol optical properties observed under this extreme dust intrusion through passive and active remote sensing techniques. For that, AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) and EARLINET (European Aerosol Research LIdar NETwork) databases are used. The sites considered are: Barcelona (41.38°N, 2.17°E), Burjassot (39.51°N, 0.42°W), Cabo da Roca (38.78°N, 9.50°W), Évora (38.57°N, 7.91°W), Granada (37.16°N, 3.61°W) and Madrid (40.45°N, 3.72°W). Large aerosol optical depths (AOD) and low Ångström exponents (AE) are observed. An AOD of 2.0 at 675 nm is reached in several stations. A maximum peak of 2.5 is registered in Évora. During and around the peak of AOD, AEs close to 0 and even slightly negative are measured. With regard to vertically-resolved aerosol optical properties, particle backscatter coefficients as high as 15 Mm−1 sr−1 at 355 nm are recorded at the lidar stations. Layer-mean lidar ratios are found in the range 40–55 sr at 355 nm and 34–61 sr at 532 nm during the event. The particle depolarization ratios are found to be constant inside the dust layer, and consistent from one site to another. Layer-mean values vary in the range 0.19–0.31. Another remarkable aspect of the event is the limited vertical distribution of the dust plume which never exceeds 5 km. The extreme aspect of the event also presented a nice case for testing the ability of two dust forecast models, BSC-DREAM8b and NMMB/BSC-Dust, to reproduce the arrival, the vertical distribution and the intensity of the dust plume over a long-range transport region. In the particular case of the February 2017 dust event, we found a large underestimation in the forecast of the extinction coefficient provided by BSC-DREAM8b at all heights independently of the site. In contrast NMMB/BSC-Dust forecasts presented a better agreement with the observations, especially in southwestern part of the IP. With regard to the forecast skill as a function of lead time, no clear degradation of the prognostic is appreciated at 24, 48 and 72 h for Évora and Granada stations (South). However the prognostic does degrade (bias increases and/or correlation decreases) for Barcelona (North), which is attributed to the fact that Barcelona is at a greater distance from the source region and to the singularity of the event. ; The research leading to these results has received funding from the H2020 program from the European Union (grant agreement no. 654109, 778349) and also from the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Economy and Competitiviness (MINECO, ref. CGL2013-45410-R, CGL2016-81092-R, CGL2017-85344-R, TEC2015-63832-P), the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (ref. CGL2017-90884-REDT); the CommSensLab "Maria de Maeztu" Unity of Excellence (ref. MDM-2016-0600) financed by the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación. Co-funding was also provided by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund (ref. POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690, ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000004, ALT20-03-0145-FEDER-000011); by the Andalusia Regional Government (ref. P12-RNM-2409); by the Madrid Regional Government (projects TIGAS-CM, ref. Y2018/EMT-5177 and AIRTEC-CM, ref. P2018/EMT4329); by the University of Granada through "Plan Propio. Programa 9 Convocatoria 2013" and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and national funding (ref. SFRH/BSAB/143164/2019). The BSC-DREAM8b and NNMB/BSC-Dust (now NMMB-MONARCH) model simulations were performed by the Mare Nostrum supercomputer hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputer Center (BSC). S. Basart acknowledges the AXA Research Fund for supporting aerosol research at the BSC through the AXA Chair on Sand and Dust Storms Fund, as well as the InDust project (COST Action CA16202). The authors gratefully acknowledge the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) for the provision of the HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model and/or READY website (http://www.ready.noaa.gov) used in this publication. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (published version)
