Suchergebnisse

AbstractWe study the extent of socioeconomic inequality in child malnutrition in Mozambique using data from the Household Budget Survey 1996–1997 and 2008–2009, and from the Development and Health Statistics 2003 and 2011. Pro‐rich inequalities in the distribution of malnutrition are found for all years, and further decompositions of the concentration index into its components reveal that most of the inequality in malnutrition is due to inequality in consumption. We claim that while absolute levels of chronic child malnutrition tended to decrease over time, socioeconomic inequality in malnutrition did not decrease meanwhile. It actually seems to have slightly increased. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractTaking advantage of the 2019/2020 Mozambican household budget survey, in the field both before and during the first phases of the Covid-19 pandemic, we assess the impact of Covid-19 on welfare in 2020, aiming to disentangle this impact from the effect of other shocks. Comparing a number of welfare metrics, and applying propensity score matching and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment approaches, we find that consumption levels are significantly lower and poverty rates substantially higher during the first phases of Covid-19 than in the pre-Covid-19 period. Moreover, the impact was greater in urban areas and accordingly in the more urbanised southern region. Non-food expenditures suffered relatively more than food expenditures, likely a coping strategy, while the impact on consumption levels was greater for people working in the secondary and tertiary sectors than for workers in the primary sector, mainly agriculture. Stunting among under-5 children also suffered. Only a limited number of countries have actual, collected in-person, survey data that span across the initial phases of the Covid-19 pandemic. Thus, the present analysis adds value to our understanding of the welfare consequences of Covid-19 in a low-income context, where automatic social safety nets were not in place during the early phases of the pandemic. More specifically, it helps in assessing the results of previous welfare impact simulations, compared to real data. Even though our main findings are broadly in line with existing estimates based on simulations or phone surveys, important differences between the predictions and the actual results emerge. We conclude that it is critically important for Mozambique and its development partners to develop stronger and more targeted policies and tools to respond to temporary shocks.

The 2007-09 price shocks affected in particular the prices of food commodities and fuel. As a consequence, Mozambique experienced reduced exports, more expensive imports and increased food and oil prices, contributing to the stagnant poverty rates registered in 2008/9. Our analysis finds, first, that domestic prices for imported food crops followed the international trends only partially and remained high even after international prices declined. And second, the policy responses adopted by the Mozambican government to stabilize the impact of price shocks in the domestic market seem to have been effective, even though they turned out to be costly in terms of lost revenue and increased debt.

While Myanmar achieved distinct progress in economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade, extreme natural events; economic, political, and social crises; and the ongoing COVID- 19 shock pose serious challenges. This study complements previous analyses of poverty and vulnerability by providing a dynamic perspective for the period 2015– 2017. Given the lack of longitudinal household data, the analysis relies on the synthetic panels approach to further our understanding of transitions between different states— poverty, vulnerability, non- poverty— and the characteristics of the households associated with these transitions. Among the main results, we find that there was a relatively high probability for people, who were poor in 2015 to exit poverty in 2017,and that the probability of remaining in a vulnerable situation was non- negligible. Moreover, the results point to important differences in the probability of transitioning between different states depending on household and location characteristics. While the COVID- 19 shock has likely increased the proportion of households in the vulnerable and poor groups, these results highlight the need to focus on households with specific characteristics that make them more at risk of remaining or falling into poverty than the rest of the population in a context of diminishing poverty rates and localized vulnerability pockets.

This paper documents a 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique. The SAM is built using unpublished Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) industry-level production accounts, commodity-level supply-demand balances and a supply matrix, together with national accounts, National Directorate of Planning and Budget (DNPO) government statistics and IMF balance of payment statistics (all for the year 2015), INE household and labour market survey data for 2014-15 and a use matrix from a 2007 SAM for Mozambique. It provides a detailed representation of the Mozambican economy and identifies 55 activities and commodities. Labour is disaggregated by education attainment level and household income and expenditure by per capita expenditure quintiles both for urban and rural areas. The SAM features production for home consumption as reported in the unpublished INE accounts and the INE household survey data and also presents government, investment, and foreign accounts. The SAM is a useful database for conducting economy-wide impact assessments, including multiplier analysis and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling.

AbstractWe explore a novel first‐order dominance (FOD) approach to poverty mapping and compare its properties to small‐area estimation. The FOD approach uses census data directly, is straightforward to implement, is multidimensional allowing for a broad conception of welfare and accounts rigorously for welfare distributions in both levels and trends. An application to Mozambique highlights the value of the approach, including its advantages in the monitoring and evaluation of public expenditures. We conclude that the FOD approach to poverty mapping constitutes a useful addition to the toolkit of policy analysts. © 2015 UNU‐WIDER. Journal of International Development published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The poverty mapping methodology for estimating welfare rankings from small areas has proven to be useful in guiding allocation of government funds, regional planning, and general policy formulation. Nevertheless, poverty mapping also suffers from a series of by now well recognized shortcomings. We apply an approach based on first order dominance (FOD) to small area estimation. Five advantages to the FOD approach are highlighted. First, it can serve as a complement to, substitute for, and/or extension of the poverty mapping methodology. Second, it directly uses census data with a minimum of assumptions imposed. Third, the methodology is straightforward to implement and the concepts are intuitive. Fourth, the FOD approach is multi-dimensional allowing for a broader conception of poverty. Finally, FOD indicators can be chosen that relate directly to public expenditure priorities We apply the approach to census data from Mozambique for 1997 and 2007 and compare results with the poverty mapping methodology. We conclude that the FOD approach is well suited to small area estimation.

AbstractThis study assesses the impact of COVID‐19 on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty, we rely on existing estimated macroeconomic impacts. We assume two main impact channels: direct income/wage and employment losses. Our simulations suggest that consumption decreased by 7.1%–14.4% and that poverty increased by 4.3–9.9 percentage points in 2020. This points to a reversal of the positive poverty reduction trend observed in previous years. Poverty most certainly increased in the pre‐COVID period due to other shocks, so Mozambique finds itself in a deepening struggle against poverty.

This study assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty and inequality, we rely on macroeconomic impacts estimated by Betho et al. (2021) using a social accounting multiplier model. We assume two main impact channels are at work leading to higher consumption poverty: direct income/wage and employment losses. To estimate the direct income/wage losses, we use the information from Betho et al. (2021) on the impact on wages, on gross domestic product by industry, and on household income; to estimate the employment losses, we use the information on the impact on employment from Betho et al. (2021). The two impact channels are then combined to assess the final impact on consumption and poverty. Our simulations suggest that consumption decreased by between 7.1 and 14.4 per cent, and that poverty increased by between 4.3 and 9.9 percentage points in 2020, depending on the specification. This corresponds to about 2 million people entering poverty in less than a year and to a reversal of the positive poverty reduction trend observed during the period 2008/09-2014/15. While the COVID-19 shock affected urban areas the most, our results indicate that rural areas experienced a higher increase in poverty rates due to the already low levels of consumption. Poverty most certainly increased in the pre-COVID 2015- 20 period due to other shocks, so Mozambique finds itself in an intense and deepening struggle against poverty.