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This paper assesses the impact of aid on tax revenue effort in the context of a fragile state, using the case of the Comoros. The paper estimates a fiscal response model within a cointegrated vector autoregressive framework with annual data for the Comoros' post-independence period (1984-2017). The data suggest that grants and tax revenue in the Comoros had a significant negative relationship in the long run that remained stable throughout the post-independence period. Grants are a politically less costly source of finance, reducing the urgency of fragile states' fiscal planners to expend their reduced political capital and administrative capacity on tax collection reforms. This effect may be amplified by the large one-off budget support grants, which represent a windfall of resources to the Comoros from bilateral partners, which often may have stopped tax reform initiatives. Although the paper does not suggest a decrease in aid to fragile states, as aid constitutes an essential support for these countries, being aware of this historically negative relationship is an important step to ensure that the government's tax revenue efforts do not slow down following, for instance, large one-off unconditional budgetary support. In addition, the paper argues that prioritizing conditional aid, focusing on aid effectiveness, and engaging more resources for capacity-building tax revenue projects and technical assistance could increase the impact of donors' interventions.

Background In the US military, chlamydia is the mostly commonly diagnosed bacterial sexually transmitted infection and the rates of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) have remained high since the early 2000s. Methods The relationship between the number of chlamydia diagnoses and hazard of PID was investigated in a retrospective cohort analysis among US Army women from 2006 to 2012. Cox regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios for associations between the number of repeat chlamydia diagnoses and PID. Results The study population comprised 33,176 women with chlamydia diagnosis. Of these, 25,098 (75%) were diagnosed only once ("nonrepeaters"). By comparison, 6282 (19%), 1435 (4%), and 361 (1%) women had one, two and three repeat chlamydia diagnoses, respectively. Among these 4 groups, 1111, 325, 72, and 25 PID diagnoses were noted. According to the Cox regression analysis, for every additional diagnosis of chlamydia, the hazard of PID increased by 28% (95% confidence interval, 19%–38%) compared with women with a single diagnosis or nonrepeaters. Moreover, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratio of 1.28, 1.35, and 1.97 represented a significantly greater risk for PID among the three "repeater" groups compared with nonrepeaters. Conclusions We found an increased hazard of PID among US Army women with repeat chlamydia diagnoses and the characterization of a dose-response relationship. These findings reinforce the notion that early diagnosis and treatment of chlamydia is necessary to avoid subsequent PID and associated morbidity.

AbstractEvidence from a large panel of low‐income and lower middle‐income countries over the period 1995–2012 suggests that, contrary to that in other countries, public investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union has been pro‐cyclical. Public investment contracts more in 'bad times' than it increases in 'good times' and appears to have become pro‐cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. The pro‐cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect West African Economic and Monetary Union countries justify exploring options for greater counter‐cyclicality of rules‐based fiscal frameworks and for risk sharing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Acquisition research (Graduate School of Business & Public Policy) ; MBA Professional Report ; The purpose of this MBA Project is to provide an update of the Navy Contract Writing Guide (NCWG) by creating an addendum that specifically addresses contract deficiencies (i.e., contract errors) and offers some tools to help its users remedy existing contract deficiencies and avoid future contract deficiencies in the writing of contracts. The project was conducted with the sponsorship and assistance of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, and Acquisition in conjunction with the Defense Finance and Accounting Service, Columbus, Ohio. The guide was updated in December 2003 and again in June 2004 in an effort to provide organization and clear and concise solutions to current contract issues. This effort is viewed as a continuation of these previous efforts to better the quality and effectiveness of the NCWG. Extensive research, incorporating interviews, websites, and regulations were utilized in creating this addendum to the NCWG. ; http://archive.org/details/updateofnavycont10945459 ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The first exposure to influenza is thought to impact subsequent immune responses later in life. The consequences of this can be seen during influenza epidemics and pandemics with differences in morbidity and mortality for different birth cohorts. There is a need for better understanding of how vaccine responses are affected by early exposures to influenza viruses. In this analysis of hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody responses in two cohorts of military personnel we noticed differences related to age, sex, prior vaccination, deployment and birth year. These data suggest that HI antibody production, in response to influenza vaccination, is affected by these factors. The magnitude of this antibody response is associated with, among other factors, the influenza strain that circulated following birth.

Little information is known on the rate of repeat gonorrhea infection among U.S. military personnel. We analyzed all gonorrhea cases reported to the Defense Medical Surveillance System during 2006–2012 to determine the rate of repeat infection. During the seven-year study period, 17,602 active duty U.S. Army personnel with a first incident gonorrhea infection were reported. Among the 4987 women with a first gonorrhea infection, 14.4% had at least one repeat infection. Among the 12,615 men with a first gonorrhea infection, 13.7% had at least one repeat infection. Overall, the rate of repeat gonorrhea infection was 44.5 and 48.9 per 1000 person-years for women and men, respectively. Service members aged 17–19 years (hazard ratio [HR] for women = 1.51; HR for men = 1.71), African-American personnel (HR for women = 1.26; HR for men = 2.17), junior enlisted personnel (HR for women = 2.64; HR for men = 1.37), and those with one year or less of service (HR for women = 1.23; HR for men = 1.37) were at higher risk of repeat infection. The findings from this study highlight the need to develop targeted prevention initiatives including education, counseling, and retesting to prevent gonorrhea reinfections among U.S. Army personnel.

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133–0.150 and R0, 1.09–2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics.

Since 1954, adenoviruses (AdV) have been recognized as an important cause of acute respiratory disease (ARD) among U.S. military recruits. Until recently, routine oral vaccination for AdV serotypes 4 and 7 eliminated epidemic AdV-associated ARD in this population. Now that the manufacturer has ceased production, vaccination has ended and AdV epidemics have reappeared. As part of a prospective epidemiological study during the high-risk ARD season, serial samples were obtained from ventilation system filters and tested for AdV by culture and PCR. An outbreak occurred during this surveillance. Of 59 air filters, 26 (44%) were AdV positive only by PCR. Sequence analysis confirmed the presence of AdV serotype 4, the implicated outbreak serotype. The number of AdV-related hospitalizations was directly correlated with the proportion of filters containing AdV; correlation coefficients were 0.86 (Pearson) and 0.90 (Spearman's rho). This is the first report describing a PCR method to detect airborne AdV during an ARD outbreak. It suggests that this technique can detect and quantify AdV-associated ARD exposure and may enable further definition of environmental effects on AdV-associated ARD spread.

Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI) case data from 2009–2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ). We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak), we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean) value of 1.39 (1.57) and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility (, p-value: 0.013) during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available – and consistent – data from multiple populations.

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is recommended to prevent cervical cancer among women, but the benefits of HPV vaccination for males are less obvious. This study characterized HPV acquisition among male military members by evaluating both seroprevalence at entry into service and seroincidence of HPV infection after ten years of service. At entry, 29 of 200 (14.6%) male service members were positive for HPV serotypes 6, 11, 16, or 18. Of 199 initially seronegative for at least one of the four HPV serotypes, 68 (34.2%) seroconverted to one or more serotypes at ten years; more than one-third of these were seropostive for oncogenic HPV serotypes. This estimate of HPV seroprevalence among male military accessions is higher than that reported among U.S. civilian males. Vaccination to prevent genital warts and cancers resulting from HPV infection may decrease health care system burdens. Further analyses are warranted to understand the potential costs and benefits of a policy to vaccinate male service members.

We evaluated the performance of a generic PCR test to detect adenoviruses (AdV) in throat swab specimens collected from asymptomatic and ill military recruits with acute respiratory disease. Samples (n = 210) were collected at entry to basic training and at the time of large outbreaks of AdV-associated acute respiratory disease among military recruits at Fort Jackson, South Carolina, from 1997 to 1998. Compared to cell culture, a sensitivity of 99% and a specificity of 98% were noted for the PCR method to detect AdV in throat swabs. Similar results were obtained with or without DNA extraction, suggesting the absence of significant inhibitors for the PCR method in throat swab samples. No AdV was detected by culture or PCR in throat swabs from healthy recruits, suggesting the absence of latency or asymptomatic shedding. Throat swab specimens proved to be adequate, noninvasive samples to rapidly diagnose respiratory disease in young adults. This generic direct PCR proved to be a useful test for the rapid diagnosis of AdV-associated respiratory disease, detecting all serotypes tested to date and furnishing results within 6 h of specimen arrival. The use of this direct, rapid, sensitive, and specific assay would assist health care providers and public health practitioners in the early diagnosis, management, and control of AdV-associated respiratory disease.

This comprehensive review outlines the impact of military-relevant respiratory infections, with special attention to recruit training environments, influenza pandemics in 1918 to 1919 and 2009 to 2010, and peacetime operations and conflicts in the past 25 years. Outbreaks and epidemiologic investigations of viral and bacterial infections among high-risk groups are presented, including (i) experience by recruits at training centers, (ii) impact on advanced trainees in special settings, (iii) morbidity sustained by shipboard personnel at sea, and (iv) experience of deployed personnel. Utilizing a pathogen-by-pathogen approach, we examine (i) epidemiology, (ii) impact in terms of morbidity and operational readiness, (iii) clinical presentation and outbreak potential, (iv) diagnostic modalities, (v) treatment approaches, and (vi) vaccine and other control measures. We also outline military-specific initiatives in (i) surveillance, (ii) vaccine development and policy, (iii) novel influenza and coronavirus diagnostic test development and surveillance methods, (iv) influenza virus transmission and severity prediction modeling efforts, and (v) evaluation and implementation of nonvaccine, nonpharmacologic interventions.

Abstract The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) has the mission of performing surveillance for emerging infectious diseases that could affect the United States (U.S.) military. This mission is accomplished by orchestrating a global portfolio of surveillance projects, capacity-building efforts, outbreak investigations and training exercises. In 2009, this portfolio involved 39 funded partners, impacting 92 countries. This article discusses the current biosurveillance landscape, programmatic details of organization and implementation, and key contributions to force health protection and global public health in 2009.