Suchergebnisse
Filter
14 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
Chasing the ghost of infection past: identifying thresholds of change during the COVID-19 infection in Spain
COVID-19 pandemic has spread worldwide rapidly from its first outbreak in China, with different impacts depending on the age and social structure of the populations, and the measures taken by each government. Within Europe, the first countries to be strongly affected have been Italy and Spain. In Spain, infection has expanded in highly populated areas, resulting in one of the largest nationwide bursts so far by early April. We analyze the evolution of the growth curve of the epidemic in both the whole of Spain and Madrid Autonomous Region (the second largest conurbation in Europe), based on the cumulative numbers of reported cases and deaths. We conducted segmented, linear regressions on log-transformed data to identify changes in the slope of these curves and/or sudden shifts in the number of cases (i.e. changes in the intercept) at fitted breaking points, and compared their results with a timeline including both key events of the epidemic and containment measures taken by the national and regional governments. Results were largely consistent in the four curves analyzed (reported infections and deaths for Spain and Madrid, respectively), showing two major shifts in slopes (growth rates) at 14-15 and 26-29 March that resulted in 37-65% reductions of slope, and originated in infection on 4-5 and 16-18 March (for case detections) and 14-23 February and 5-6 March (for deaths). Small upward shifts in the progress of the disease in Madrid were not associated with significant changes in the intercept of the curve, and seem related with unevenness in case reporting. These results evidence an early deceleration in the spread of COVID-19 coinciding with personal hygiene and social distancing recommendations, as well as the general awareness of the population; and a second, stronger decrease when harder isolation measures were enforced. The combination of both breakpoints seemingly led to the start of the contention of the disease outbreak by early April, the limit of our time series. This highlights the importance of adopting public health strategies that include disseminating basic knowledge on personal hygiene and reduced social contact at the onset of the epidemic, and the importance of early enforcement of hard contention measures for its subsequent contention. ; No
BASE
COVID-19 Apparent Reproductive Number Dropped During Spain's Nationwide Dropdown, then Spiked at Lower-Incidence Regions ; COVID-19 infection thresholds in Spain
Background: COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly spread worldwide. Spain has suffered one of the largest nationwide bursts, particularly in the highly populated areas of Madrid and Barcelona (two of the five largest conurbations in Europe). ; Methods: We used segmented regression analyses to identify shifts in the evolution of the apparent reproductive number (Rt) reported for 16 Spanish administrative regions. We associate these breaking points with a timeline of key containment measures taken by national and regional governments, applying time lags for the time from contagion to case detection, with their associated errors. ; Findings: Results show an early decrease of Rt that preceded the nationwide lockdown; a generalized, sharp decrease in Rt associated with such lockdown; a low impact of the strengthened lockdown, with a flattening of Rt evolution in high-incidence regions - but increases in Rt at low-incidence regions; and an increase in Rt, associated to the relaxation of the lockdown measures, in ten regions. Interpretation: These results evidence the importance of generalized lockdown measures to contain COVID-19 spread; and the limited effect of the subsequent application of a stricter lockdown (restrictions to all non-essential economic activities). Most importantly, they highlight the importance of maintaining strong social distancing measures and strengthening public health control during lockdown de-escalation. ; No
BASE
COVID-19 effective reproduction number dropped during Spain's nationwide dropdown, then spiked at lower-incidence regions
COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly spread worldwide. Spain has suffered one of the largest nationwide bursts, particularly in the highly populated areas of Madrid and Barcelona (two of the five largest conurbations in Europe). We used segmented regression analyses to identify shifts in the evolution of the effective reproduction number (Rt) reported for 16 Spanish administrative regions. We associate these breaking points with a timeline of key containment measures taken by national and regional governments, applying time lags for the time from contagion to case detection, with their associated errors. Results show an early decrease of Rt that preceded the nationwide lockdown; a generalized, sharp decrease in Rt associated with such lockdown; a low impact of the strengthened lockdown, with a flattening of Rt evolution in high-incidence regions, and even increases in Rt at low-incidence regions; and an increase in Rt associated to the relaxation of the lockdown measures in ten regions. These results evidence the importance of generalized lockdown measures to contain COVID-19 spread, and the limited effect of the subsequent application of a stricter lockdown (restrictions to all non-essential economic activities). Most importantly, they highlight the importance of maintaining strong social distancing measures and strengthening public health control during lockdown de-escalation. ; Peer reviewed
BASE
Evolution in biodiversity policy – current gaps and future needs
The intensity and speed of human alterations to the planet's ecosystems are yielding our static, ahistorical view of biodiversity obsolete. Human actions frequently trigger fast evolutionary responses, affect extant genetic variation and result in the establishment of new communities and co-evolutionary networks for which we lack past analogues. Contemporary evolution interplays with ecological changes to determine the response of organisms and ecosystems to anthropogenic pressures. Examples on wild species include responses to harvest (e.g. fisheries, hunting, angling), habitat loss and fragmentation (e.g. genetic effects of isolation), biotic exchange (e.g. evolutionary responses to control measures), climate change (e.g. local adaptation and its interplay with dispersal processes) and the responses of endangered species to conservation measures. A review of international and EU biodiversity policies showed numerous opportunities for the integration of evolutionary knowledge, with the realistic prospect of improving their efficacy. Such opportunities should be extended to other sectoral policies of direct relevance for biodiversity – notably nature conservation, fisheries, agriculture, water resources, spatial planning and climate change. These avenues for improvement are, however, challenged by the low level of enforcement of biodiversity policies, linked to the nonbinding nature of most biodiversity-policy documents, and the decreasing representation of biodiversity in EU's research policy.
BASE
Evolution in biodiversity policy - current gaps and future needs
The intensity and speed of human alterations to the planet's ecosystems are yielding our static, ahistorical view of biodiversity obsolete. Human actions frequently trigger fast evolutionary responses, affect extant genetic variation and result in the establishment of new communities and co-evolutionary networks for which we lack past analogues. Contemporary evolution interplays with ecological changes to determine the response of organisms and ecosystems to anthropogenic pressures. Examples on wild species include responses to harvest (e.g. fisheries, hunting, angling), habitat loss and fragmentation (e.g. genetic effects of isolation), biotic exchange (e.g. evolutionary responses to control measures), climate change (e.g. local adaptation and its interplay with dispersal processes) and the responses of endangered species to conservation measures. A review of international and EU biodiversity policies showed numerous opportunities for the integration of evolutionary knowledge, with the realistic prospect of improving their efficacy. Such opportunities should be extended to other sectoral policies of direct relevance for biodiversity - notably nature conservation, fisheries, agriculture, water resources, spatial planning and climate change. These avenues for improvement are, however, challenged by the low level of enforcement of biodiversity policies, linked to the nonbinding nature of most biodiversity-policy documents, and the decreasing representation of biodiversity in EU's research policy. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. ; Funding from EU-FW7 project KNEU and the International Council for Canadian Studies (Canada-Europe Awards) is also gratefully acknowledged. ; Peer Reviewed
BASE
Rats and Seabirds: Effects of Egg Size on Predation Risk and the Potential of Conditioned Taste Aversion as a Mitigation Method
Seabirds nesting on islands are threatened by invasive rodents, such as mice and rats, which may attack eggs, chicks and even adults. The low feasibility of rat eradications on many islands makes the development of alternate control plans necessary. We used a combination of field experiments on a Mediterranean island invaded by black rats (Rattus rattus) to evaluate (1) the predation risk posed to different-sized seabird eggs and (2), the potential of two deterrent methods (electronic and chemical) to reduce its impact. Rats were able to consume eggs of all sizes (12 to 68 g), but survival increased 13 times from the smallest to the largest eggs (which also had more resistant eggshells). Extrapolation to seabird eggs suggests that the smallest species (Hydrobates pelagicus) suffer the most severe predation risk, but even the largest (Larus michahellis) could suffer >60% mortality. Nest attack was not reduced by the deterrents. However, chemical deterrence (conditioned taste aversion by lithium chloride) slowed the increase in predation rate over time, which resulted in a three-fold increase in egg survival to predation as compared to both control and electronic deterrence. At the end of the experimental period, this effect was confirmed by a treatment swap, which showed that conferred protection remains at least 15 days after cessation of the treatment. Results indicate that small seabird species are likely to suffer severe rates of nest predation by rats and that conditioned taste aversion, but not electronic repellents, may represent a suitable method to protect colonies when eradication or control is not feasible or cost-effective. © 2013 Latorre et al. ; Funds were provided by the Environment and Nature Council of the Balearic Government (project DRAGORAT; Sa Dragonera Natural Park's research grants, IX Edition, 2007). ARL received funding support from the Spanish Scientific Research Council (JAEDoc program, co-funded by the European Social Fund). The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation also supported this work by the awarded project SEAGRAPE, ref. CGL2011-30249 ; Peer Reviewed
BASE
Changes in Patch Features May Exacerbate or Compensate for the Effect of Habitat Loss on Forest Bird Populations
One and a half centuries after Darwin visited Chiloe Island, what he described as "…an island covered by one great forest…" has lost two-thirds of its forested areas. At this biodiversity hotspot, forest surface is becoming increasingly fragmented due to unregulated logging, clearing for pastures and replacement by exotic tree plantations. Decrease in patch size, increased isolation and "edge effects" can influence the persistence of forest species in remnant fragments. We assessed how these variables affect local density for six forest birds, chosen to include the most important seed dispersers (four species) and bird pollinators (two species, one of which acts also as seed disperser), plus the most common insectivore (Aphrastura spinicauda). Based on cue-count point surveys (8 points per fragment), we estimated bird densities for each species in 22 forest fragments of varying size, shape, isolation and internal-habitat structure (e.g. tree size and epiphyte cover). Bird densities varied with fragment connectivity (three species) and shape (three species), but none of the species was significantly affected by patch size. Satellite image analyses revealed that, from 1985 to 2008, forested area decreased by 8.8% and the remaining forest fragments became 16% smaller, 58–73% more isolated and 11–50% more regular. During that period, bird density estimates for the northern part of Chiloé (covering an area of 1214.75 km2) decreased for one species (elaenia), increased for another two (chucao and hummingbird) and did not vary for three (rayadito, thrust and blackbird). For the first three species, changes in patch features respectively exacerbated, balanced and overcame the effects of forest loss on bird population size (landscape-level abundance). Hence, changes in patch features can modulate the effect of habitat fragmentation on forest birds, suggesting that spatial planning (guided by spatially-explicit models) can be an effective tool to facilitate their conservation. ; Funding by the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Foundation (project DOSEL) and the Basque Country Government (pre-doctoral fellowship for A.M.) are gratefully acknowledged. A.R.L. received funding from the JAEDOC program of the Spanish Research Council (CSIC). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript ; Peer reviewed
BASE
Biotic wetland connectivity—supporting a new approach for wetland policy
Wetlands are key habitats connected physically and socially with processes occurring over a much wider territory. The biotic connection through dispersal mechanisms among wetlands is of primary importance to wetland management and policies. However, traditional wetland conservation approaches are based on the preservation of isolated sites considered to be of special importance (typically owing to their importance for concentrations of migratory waterbirds). Research linking local species richness and bird migration suggests that the effect of wetland loss on regional diversity might be much larger than what would be expected from direct habitat loss. Since the biotic connection among wetlands serviced by waterbirds appears to be more efficient within a limited range, the distribution of wetlands in space is a key aspect determining wetland connectedness even in the absence of direct hydrologic links. Protected areas should thus be defined with regard to waterfowl movements and waterbird migration as functional processes contributing to aquatic species migration and local species richness. This calls for a regional approach to wetland management within a continental context. This paper aims at defining an operational view of the dispersion function of wetlands and its implication for conservation policies. For this purpose, we examined the conservation policies of the Ramsar Convention (the international treaty that protects wetlands) and the European Union (as an example of relevant continental level policy-making) from the viewpoint of bird-mediated dispersal of aquatic organisms. We propose nine specific avenues for the inclusion of bird-mediated dispersal in the policy documents examined. Non-governmental organisations and other organisations working in waterbird conservation should also recognise the importance of their policies for aquatic biodiversity at broader levels and avoid compartmentalising their conservation activities. ; Peer reviewed
BASE
Explaining path-dependent rigidity traps: increasing returns, power, discourses, and entrepreneurship intertwined in social-ecological systems
In: Ecology and society: E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability, Band 24, Heft 2
ISSN: 1708-3087
El papel de las universidades y los centros tecnológicos como impulsores de la actividad innocadora
In: Papeles de economía española, Heft 127, S. 59-75
ISSN: 0210-9107
Facilitating Transitional Processes in Rigid Institutional Regimes for Water Management and Wetland Conservation: Experience from the Guadalquivir Estuary
In: Ecology and society: E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability, Band 17, Heft 1
ISSN: 1708-3087
Modeling Biomass Production in Seasonal Wetlands Using MODIS NDVI Land Surface Phenology
Plant primary production is a key driver of several ecosystem functions in seasonal marshes, such as water purification and secondary production by wildlife and domestic animals. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal dynamics of biomass production is therefore essential for the management of resources—particularly in seasonal wetlands with variable flooding regimes. We propose a method to estimate standing aboveground plant biomass using NDVI Land Surface Phenology (LSP) derived from MODIS, which we calibrate and validate in the Doñana National Park's marsh vegetation. Out of the different estimators tested, the Land Surface Phenology maximum NDVI (LSP-Maximum-NDVI) correlated best with ground-truth data of biomass production at five locations from 2001–2015 used to calibrate the models (R 2 = 0.65). Estimators based on a single MODIS NDVI image performed worse (R 2 ≤ 0.41). The LSP-Maximum-NDVI estimator was robust to environmental variation in precipitation and hydroperiod, and to spatial variation in the productivity and composition of the plant community. The determination of plant biomass using remote-sensing techniques, adequately supported by ground-truth data, may represent a key tool for the long-term monitoring and management of seasonal marsh ecosystems. ; We acknowledge support by the CSIC Open Access Publication Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI). ; David Aragonés, Isabel Afán, Ricardo Díaz-Delgado and Diego García Díaz (EBD-LAST) provided support for remote-sensing and LSP analyses. Alfredo Chico, José Luis del Valle and Rocío Fernández Zamudio (ESPN, ICTS-RBD) provided logistic support and taxonomic expertise during the field work (validation dataset). Ernesto García and Cristina Pérez assisted with biomass harvesting and processing (calibration dataset). Gerrit Heil provided support in the project design. This study received funding from Ministerio de Medio Ambiente-Parque Nacional de Doñana, Consejeria de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Andalucia (1999–2000): RNM118 Junta de Andalucia (2003); the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No. 641762 to ECOPOTENTIAL project; and the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Plan Estatal de I+D+i 2013–2016, under grant agreement CGL2016-81086-R to GRAZE project.
BASE
SSRN