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Este artículo contiene 10 páginas, 4 figuras. ; The prevalence of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among populations is critical to accurately predicting when and where climate change impacts will occur. Currently, comparisons of thermal performance between populations are untested for most marine species or overlooked by models predicting the thermal sensitivity of species to extirpation. Here we compared the ecological response and recovery of seagrass populations (Posidonia oceanica) to thermal stress throughout a year-long translocation experiment across a 2800- km gradient in ocean climate. Transplants in central and warm-edge locations experienced temperatures > 29°C, representing thermal anomalies > 5°C above long-term maxima for cool-edge populations, 1.5°C for central and < 1°C for warm-edge populations. Cool-edge, central and warm-edge populations differed in thermal performance when grown under common conditions, but patterns contrasted with expectations based on thermal geography. Cool-edge populations did not differ from warm-edge populations under common conditions and performed significantly better than central populations in growth and survival. Our findings reveal that thermal performance does not necessarily reflect the thermal geography of a species. We demonstrate that warm-edge populations can be less sensitive to thermal stress than cooler, central populations suggesting that Mediterranean seagrasses have greater resilience to warming than current paradigms suggest. ; This study was funded by Fundacion BBVA (project Interbioclima). SB received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 659246, Juan de la Cierva Formacion contract from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness and the Australian Research Council (DE200100900). NM and SB received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MedShift, CGL2015-71809-P). JB received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Juan de la Cierva FJC18-035566-I. TA received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project: UMBRAL, CTM2017-86695-C3-1-R). ; Peer reviewed

[Aim] Temperature is fundamental to the physiological and ecological performance of marine organisms, but its role in modulating the magnitude of ecological impacts by exotic species remains unresolved. Here, we examine the relationship between thermal regimes in the range of origin of marine exotic species and sites of measured impact, after human-induced introduction. We compare this relationship with the magnitude of impact exerted by exotic species on native ecosystems. ; [Location] Global. ; [Time period] 1977–2017 (meta-analysis). ; [Major taxa studied] Marine exotic species. ; [Methods] Quantitative impacts of exotic species in marine ecosystems were obtained from a global database. The native range of origin of exotic species was used to estimate the realized thermal niche for each species and compared with the latitude and climatic conditions in recipient sites of recorded impact of exotic species. The difference in median temperatures between recipient sites and the thermal range of origin (i.e., thermal midpoint anomaly) was compared with the magnitude of effect sizes by exotic species on native species, communities and ecosystems. ; [Results] Recorded impacts occurred predominantly within the thermal niche of origin of exotic species, albeit with a tendency toward higher latitudes and slightly cooler conditions. The severity of impacts by exotic species on abundance of native taxa displayed a hump-shaped relationship with temperature. Peak impacts were recorded in recipient sites that were 2.2°C cooler than the thermal midpoint of the range of origin of exotic species, and impacts decreased in magnitude toward higher and lower thermal anomalies. ; [Main conclusions] Our findings highlight how temperature and climatic context influence ecological impacts by exotic species in marine ecosystems and the implications for existing and novel species interactions under climate change. ; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant/Award Number: 659246; Australian Research Council, Grant/Award Number: DE200100900 and CE140100020; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, Grant/Award Number: CGL2015-71809-P; Fundación BBVA; Independent Research Fund Denmark, Grant/Award Number: 8021-00222B. ; Peer reviewed