Suchergebnisse

Background: There are many models that study aspects of smoking habits: the influence of price, tax, relapse time, and the effects of prohibition. There are also studies examining the effects of the Spanish smoke-free law. We wanted to build a model able to separate the effect of the law from the pre-law evolution of smoking habits. Methods: Using data from the Spanish Ministry of Health and Social Policy, we developed a dynamic model of tobacco use. The model projects the evolution over time of the number of non-smokers, smokers and ex-smokers before 2006. Then, we compared the predictions of the model with data for the years after the law came into force, 2006 and 2009. Results: We show that smoke-free law has had a significant impact on different sub-populations. The number of ex-smokers increased significantly in 2006 and this increase was maintained in 2009. The number of smokers also decreased significantly in 2006, but in 2009 this returned to its value before the law. Simultaneously, the number of non-smokers decreased in 2009. Conclusions: When the law came into force (2006), its restriction on smoking in public and work places made many smokers decide to give up smoking, decreasing the number of smokers and increasing the number of ex-smokers. In 2009, the majority of those who succeeded in giving up smoking did not return to the habit. However, the smoke-free law had no effect on new smokers and the number of smokers returned to previous levels, whereas the number of non-smokers decreased. Therefore, we can conclude that the law had a very positive effect in the first few years but this has dissipated over time, with the exception of ex-smokers, whose number is still higher than before the law. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. ; Guerrero Cortina, F.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2011). Analysing the Spanish smoke-free legislation of 2006: A new method to quantify its impact using a dynamic model. International Journal of Drug Policy. 22(4):247-251. doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2011.05.003 ; S ; 247 ; 251 ; 22 ; 4

In June 2002, the Spanish Government passed the ¿Law of Political Parties¿ (LPP) with the aim, among others, of preventing parties giving political support to terrorist organizations. This law affected the Basque nationalist party ¿Batasuna¿, due to its proved relation with ETA. In this paper, taking data from the Euskobarometro (Basque Country survey) related to the attitude of the Basque population towards ETA, we propose a dynamic model for the pre-LPP scenario. This model will be extrapolated to the future in order to predict what would have happened to the attitude of the Basque population if the law had not been passed. These model predictions will be compared to post-LPP data from the Euskobarometro using a bootstrapping approach in order to quantify the effect of the LPP on the attitude of Basque Country population towards ETA. ; Peco Yeste, M.; Santonja, F.; Tarazona Tornero, AC.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Villanueva Oller, FJ. (2013). The effect of the Spanish Law of Political Parties (LPP) on the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA: A dynamic modelling approach. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 1-7. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2011.11.007 ; S ; 1 ; 7