Suchergebnisse

Electricity power planning is a serious national task that encompasses not only forecasts but more importantly the evolution in short, medium and long term of each element that composes the assumptions, the constraints and/or the parameters of the planning model. Deterministic models can bring simplicity to the electricity power planning but do not consider the uncertainties and sources of risk of the electricity system. On the other hand, stochastic models tend to include the behaviour of one or more uncertain parameters that are critical to obtain a robust solution, being however more detailed and lengthy than deterministic models. The aim of this work was to identify the major sources of risk and uncertainties facing electricity system, representing valuable input for the electricity planner task. From this study it can be observed that several different behaviours for each uncertain parameter can be found along a time horizon. Thus, it is concluded that reeling on average lowers can represent a reductionist approach and in order to obtain more reliable scenarios for future electricity system, the statistical characteristics of each parameter should be considered in the electricity power planning. ; This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning ...

The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven by, on one hand, a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other hand, international goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this work is to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power sector until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Considering the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power sector. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power sector is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. ; The research that allowed the publication of this paper has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union in the context of the CLIMACAP project (EuropeAid/131944/C/SER/Multi) and of the U.S. Agency for International Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the context of the LAMP project (under Interagency Agreements DW89923040 and DW89923951US). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union or the U.S. government. The authors would like to thank the feedback and efforts from all CLIMACAP and LAMP project partners for enabling the research results reported in this article. This research was ...