Suchergebnisse

We examine sources of systemic risk (threshold size, complexity, and interconnectedness) with factors constructed from equity returns of large financial firms, after accounting for standard risk factors. From the factor loadings and factor returns, we estimate the implicit government subsidy for each systemic risk measure, and find that, from 1963 to 2006, only our big-versus-huge threshold size factor, TSIZE, implies a positive implicit subsidy on average. Further, pre-2007 TSIZE-implied subsidies predict the Federal Reserve's liquidity facility loans and the Treasury's TARP loans during the crisis, both in the time series and the cross section. TSIZE-implied subsidies increase around the bailout of Continental Illinois in 1984 and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, as well as around changes in Fitch Support Ratings indicating higher probability of government support. Since 2007, however, the relative share of TSIZE-implied subsidies falls, especially after Lehman's failure, whereas complexity and interconnectedness-implied subsidies are substantial, resulting in an almost sevenfold increase in total implicit subsidies. The results, which survive a variety of robustness checks, indicate that the market's perception of the sources of systemic risk changes over time.

The small decline in the value of mortgage-related assets relative to the large total losses associated with the financial crisis suggests the presence of financial amplification mechanisms, which allow relatively small shocks to propagate through the financial system. We review the literature on financial amplification mechanisms and discuss the Federal Reserve's interventions during different stages of the crisis in terms of this literature. We interpret the Fed's early-stage liquidity programs as working to dampen balance sheet amplifications arising from the positive feedback between financial and asset prices. By comparison, the Fed's later-stage crisis programs take into account adverse-selection amplifications that operate via increases in credit risk and the externality imposed by risky borrowers on safe ones. Finally, we provide new empirical evidence that increases in the amount outstanding of funds supplied by the Fed reduce the Libor-OIS spread during periods of high liquidity risk. In contrast, reductions in the Fed's liquidity supply in 2009 did not increase the spread. Our analysis has implications for the impact on asset prices of a potential withdrawal of liquidity supply by the Fed.

AbstractAlthough brokers' trading is endemic in securities markets, the form of this trading differs between markets. Whereas in some securities markets, brokers may trade with their customers in the same transaction (simultaneous dual trading or SDT), in other markets, brokers are only allowed to tradeaftertheir customers in a separate transaction (consecutive dual trading or CDT). We show theoretically that informed and noise traders are worse off and brokers are better off while market depth is lower in the SDT market. Thus, given a choice, traders prefer fewer brokers in the SDT market compared to the CDT market. With free entry, however, market depth may be higher in the SDT market provided its entry cost is sufficiently low relative to the CDT market. We study order flow internalization by broker‐dealers, and show that, in the free entry equilibrium, internalization hurts retail customers and market quality.

This paper studies the degree of impact of stock prices listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Tokyo Stock Exchange regarding price behavior in Asian stock markets. Our evidence shows that the pattern and magnitude of impact varies. Returns in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia are more sensitive than those in Taiwan, Korea and Thailand. The response patterns in the Asian markets suggest that foreign influence is significantly correlated to the degree of market openness.

This paper explores liquidity movements in stock and Treasury bond markets over a period of more than 1800 trading days. Cross-market dynamics in liquidity are documented by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity (that is, bid-ask spreads and depth), returns, volatility, and order flow in the stock and bond markets. We find that a shock to quoted spreads in one market affects the spreads in both markets, and that return volatility is an important driver of liquidity. Innovations to stock and bond market liquidity and volatility prove to be significantly correlated, suggesting that common factors drive liquidity and volatility in both markets. Monetary expansion increases equity market liquidity during periods of financial crises, and unexpected increases (decreases) in the federal funds rate lead to decreases (increases) in liquidity and increases (decreases) in stock and bond volatility. Finally, we find that flows to the stock and government bond sectors play an important role in forecasting stock and bond liquidity. The results establish a link between 'macro' liquidity, or money flows, and 'micro' or transactions liquidity.

We study common determinants of daily bid-ask spreads and trading volume for the bond and stock markets over the 1991-98 period. We find that spread changes in one market are affected by lagged spread and volume changes in both markets. Further, spread and volume changes are predictable to a considerable degree using lagged market returns, lagged interest rates, lagged spreads, and lagged volume. During periods of financial crisis, stock and bond spreads and volume are more volatile and become more highly correlated; moreover, at these times, money supply positively affects financial market liquidity, albeit with a lag of two weeks. During normal times, increases in mutual fund flows enhance stock market liquidity and trading volume, but during financial crises, U.S. government bond funds see higher inflows, resulting in increased bond market liquidity. Overall, this study deepens our understanding of the dynamics of liquidity in financial markets and suggests how asset allocation strategies might be designed to reduce trading costs.

We study the joint time-series of daily liquidity in government bond and stock markets over the period 1991 to 1998. Innovations in liquidity are positively and significantly correlated across stock and bond markets. Further, order imbalances in the stock market impact bond and stock liquidity, even after controlling for order imbalances in the bond market. Both results suggest the existence of a common liquidity factor in stock and bond markets. We consider monetary conditions and mutual fund flows as sources of order flow and as primitive determinants of liquidity. Monetary expansion enhances stock market liquidity during crises. U.S. government bond funds see higher inflows and equity funds see higher outflows during financial crises, and these flows are associated with decreased liquidity in stock and bond markets. Our results establish a link between "macro" liquidity, or money flows, and "micro" or transactions liquidity.