Suchergebnisse

RésuméLes auteurs examinent le potentiel de création d'emplois des secteurs d'activité tunisiens sur le long terme. Ils estiment l'élasticité production‐emploi de long terme à partir de données de panel portant sur quinze secteurs et sur la période 1983–2010, en utilisant un estimateur de type MG (moyenne de groupe). L'analyse montre que les industries extractives ne peuvent pas absorber de main‐d'œuvre, et que le développement de l'hôtellerie‐restauration se fait sans création d'emplois sur le long terme. Les auteurs préconisent en conséquence d'axer la politique économique sur les secteurs particulièrement intensifs en main‐d'œuvre – services et industries manufacturières d'exportation – et sur les activités paratouristiques plutôt que touristiques.

ResumenSe examina la capacidad a largo plazo de Túnez de generar empleo. Con datos de panel de 15 sectores económicos de 1983–2010, los autores estiman sus elasticidades producto‐empleo a largo plazo utilizando el estimador de media grupal. Según sus resultados, la política económica debería orientarse a los sectores más intensivos en empleo: servicios y manufacturas exportadoras. Destaca la incapacidad del sector minero de absorber mano de obra, por lo que la inversión en el mismo no será productiva; asimismo, el crecimiento sin empleo a largo plazo de la hotelería y restauración induce a pensar que deberían fomentarse más las actividades paraturísticas que las turísticas.

AbstractThis article examines the long‐term ability of Tunisian industries to generate employment opportunities. Using a panel data set of 15 industries over 1983–2010, the authors estimate their long‐run output–employment elasticities, using the "mean group" estimator. They argue that economic policy should target the most labour‐intensive industries, particularly service industries and export manufacturing industries. After demonstrating the inability of the mining industry to absorb labour, the authors highlight the long‐run jobless growth in the hotel, bar and restaurant industry and suggest that future investment in this industry will yield no results and that future tourism policy should focus rather on para‐tourism activities.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between credit market development and economic growth for a heterogeneous panel of 20 developing and developed countries with varied growth experiences. The empirical study is based on estimations of generalized method of moments (GMM) and pooled mean group (PMG) on heterogeneous panel data model. Difference GMM estimation indicates that credit market development has a negative effect on economic growth. This result is robust for our full sample and for the subsample of non‐OECD countries, but not for the subsample of OECD countries. However, using a PMG model, we provide evidence of a positive impact in the long run between credit market development and economic growth. When considering heterogeneity in the short‐run relationship across countries, our findings suggest that the credit–growth relationship is specific across countries, depending on each country‐specific legal and macroeconomic environment.