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Working paper
How Much Should We Trust Regional-Exposure Designs?
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Inappropriate Technology: Evidence from Global Agriculture
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Working paper
Attention Cycles
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Working paper
Strategic Mistakes
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Working paper
The Macroeconomics of Narratives
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Managing Expectations: Instruments vs. Targets
In: NBER Working Paper No. w25404
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Nonlinear Pricing with Underutilization: A Theory of Multi-part Tariffs
In: American economic review, Band 113, Heft 3, S. 836-860
ISSN: 1944-7981
We study the nonlinear pricing of goods whose usage generates revenue for the seller and of which buyers can freely dispose. The optimal price schedule is a multi-part tariff, featuring tiers within which buyers pay a marginal price of zero. We apply our model to digital goods, for which advertising, data generation, and network effects make usage valuable, but monitoring legitimate usage is infeasible. Our results rationalize common pricing schemes including free products, free trials, and unlimited subscriptions. The possibility of free disposal harms producer and consumer welfare and makes both less sensitive to changes in usage-based revenue and demand. (JEL D11, D21, D42, L86, M37)
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Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
In: NBER macroeconomics annual, Band 35, S. 1-86
ISSN: 1537-2642
Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
In: NBER Working Paper No. w27308
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Working paper
Feedbacks: Financial Markets and Economic Activity
In: American economic review, Band 111, Heft 6, S. 1845-1879
ISSN: 1944-7981
Is credit expansion a sign of desirable financial deepening or the prelude to an inevitable bust? We study this question in modern US data using a structural VAR model of 10 monthly frequency variables, identified by heteroskedasticity. Negative reduced-form responses of output to credit growth are caused by endogenous monetary policy response to credit expansion shocks. On average, credit and output growth remain positively associated. "Financial stress" shocks to credit spreads cause declines in output and credit levels. Neither credit aggregates nor spreads provide much advance warning of the 2008–2009 crisis, but spreads improve within-crisis forecasts. (JEL C51, E23, E31, E43, E44, E52, G01)