Suchergebnisse

Ce texte court sur les simulations dans les sciences humaines et sociales est consacré aux simulations multi-agents. Les ingrédients d'une simulation multi-agents sont essentiellement au nombre de deux : agents et interactions. Les Agents avec leurs propriétés interagissent entre eux et les interactions peuvent être soit directes soit indirectes. Par analogie avec les systèmes physiques, la pertinence de l'équilibre statistique en économie peut être aussi analysée.

"Econophysics applies the methodology of physics to the study of economics. However, whilst physicists have good understanding of statistical physics, they may be unfamiliar with recent advances in statistical conjectures, including Bayesian and predictive methods. Equally, economists with knowledge of probabilities do not have a background in statistical physics and agent-based models. Proposing a unified view for a dynamic probabilistic approach, this book is useful for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in physics, economics and finance. The book takes a finitary approach to the subject; discussing the essentials of applied probability, and covering finite Markov chain theory and its applications to real systems. Each chapter ends with a summary, suggestions for further reading, and exercises with solutions at the end of the book"--

High-frequency trading has been experiencing an increase of interest both for practical purposes within financial institutions and within academic research; recently, the UK Government Office for Science reviewed the state of the art and gave an outlook analysis. Therefore, models for tick-by-tick financial time series are becoming more and more important. Together with high-frequency trading comes the need for fast simulations of full synthetic markets for several purposes including scenario analyses for risk evaluation. These simulations are very suitable to be run on massively parallel architectures. Aside more traditional large-scale parallel computers, high-end personal computers equipped with several multi-core CPUs and general-purpose GPU programming are gaining importance as cheap and easily available alternatives. A further option are FPGAs. In all cases, development can be done in a unified framework with standard C or C++ code and calls to appropriate libraries like MPI (for CPUs) or CUDA for (GPGPUs). Here we present such a prototype simulation of a synthetic regulated equity market. The basic ingredients to build a synthetic share are two sequences of random variables, one for the inter-trade durations and one for the tick-by-tick logarithmic returns. Our extensive simulations are based on several distributional choices for the above random variables, including Mittag-Leffler distributed inter-trade durations and alpha-stable tick-by-tick logarithmic returns.