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Abstract

Research background: Bitcoin is the most popular financial instrument within the new cryptocurrencies class, which emerged in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of Bitcoin from the perspective of the Polish market investor. More specifically, the aim of the empirical research presented in this study has been twofold: (1) comparison of Bitcoin with other currencies using returns and risk captured by the standard deviation of returns and (2) assessment of the sensitivity of the BTC/PLN exchange rate to the NBP's monetary policy announcements.

Results: Bitcoin appears to be weakly related to other currency exchange rates against the Polish zloty and the monetary policy announcements of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) have, effectively, no influence on the determination of the BTC/PLN exchange rate.

Novelty: We discuss extensively the Bitcoin as a new asset on the financial market and we present the investigation of the BTC/PLN reactions to the monetary policy announcements in Poland, which is a novel analysis for this instrument using the Polish market data.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati reakcije CROBEX indeksa Zagrebačke burze na odabrane makroekonomske najave u vrlo kratkim vremenskim intervalima. U radu se koriste varijable stopa prinosa od 5 minuta od rujna 2017. do ožujka 2018. kao i 25 makroekonomskih najava. Nakon pažljive provedbe faze pripreme podataka, utvrđena je regresija za koju se koriste dummy varijable koje predstavljaju točno vrijeme objavljivanja. U obzir je uzeta heteroskedastičnost i autokorelacijske konzistentne (HAC) procjene zbog specifičnosti unutardnevnih podataka i robusnosti rezultata. Naši rezultati upućuju na to da su za unutardnevna kratka razdoblja reakcije tržišta statistički značajne. Stoga se zaključuje da se makroekonomska politika (monetarna ili fiskalna) odražava na stope prinosa hrvatskih dioničkih indeksa. Navedeno potvrđuje hipotezu učinkovitog tržišta i u skladu su sa zaključcima sličnih studija razvijenih gospodarstava. ; The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati reakcije CROBEX indeksa Zagrebačke burze na odabrane makroekonomske najave u vrlo kratkim vremenskim intervalima. U radu se koriste varijable stopa prinosa od 5 minuta od rujna 2017. do ožujka 2018. kao i 25 makroekonomskih najava. Nakon pažljive provedbe faze pripreme podataka, utvrđena je regresija za koju se koriste dummy varijable koje predstavljaju točno vrijeme objavljivanja. U obzir je uzeta heteroskedastičnost i autokorelacijske konzistentne (HAC) procjene zbog specifičnosti unutardnevnih podataka i robusnosti rezultata. Naši rezultati upućuju na to da su za unutardnevna kratka razdoblja reakcije tržišta statistički značajne. Stoga se zaključuje da se makroekonomska politika (monetarna ili fiskalna) odražava na stope prinosa hrvatskih dioničkih indeksa. Navedeno potvrđuje hipotezu učinkovitog tržišta i u skladu su sa zaključcima sličnih studija razvijenih gospodarstava. ; The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.