Suchergebnisse

The impact of macroeconomic crises on the investments made by parents in the human capital of their children is a question of considerable policy importance. Analysis of the effects of the profound 1988-92 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions of school-age children in urban areas finds no effect on attendance rates but a significant decline in the fraction of children who are both employed and attend school. It also finds significantly higher mean educational attainment for children exposed to the crisis than for those who were not. These findings may be related: children who are not employed have more time available and may therefore put more effort into school.

The Peruvian Social Fund (FONCODES) was created by President Alberto Fujimori in 1991 with the stated objectives of generating employment, alleviating poverty, and improving access to social services. This article uses province-level data on monthly expenditures, socioeconomic indicators, and electoral outcomes to analyze political influences on the timing and geographic distribution of FONCODES expenditures between 1991 and 1995. I reach three main conclusions. First, these expenditures increased significantly before national elections. Second, FONCODES projects were directed at provinces in which the marginal political effect of expenditures was likely to be largest. Third, these projects favored the poorest provinces, which suggests that the program also had a redistributive function. The results are robust to a large number of specifications and controls. The Peruvian data support predictions made in the literature on political business cycles as well as the literature on political influences on the allocation of discretionary funds.

The Peruvian Social Fund (FONCODES) was created by President Alberto Fujimori in 1991 with the stated objectives of generating employment, alleviating poverty, and improving access to social services. This article uses province-level data on monthly expenditures, socio-economic indicators, and electoral outcomes to analyze political influences on the timing and geographic distribution of FONCODES expenditures between 1991 and 1995. I reach three main conclusions. First, these expenditures increased significantly before national elections. Second FONCODES projects were directed at provinces in which the marginal political effect of expenditures was likely to be largest. Third these projects favoured the poorest provinces; which suggests that the program also had a redistributive function. The results are robust to a large number of specifications and controls. The Peruvian data support predictions made in the literature on political business cycles as well as the literature on political influences on the allocation of discretionary funds. (American Political Science Review / FUB)

Between 1992 and 1998 the Peruvian Social Fund (foncodes) spent about US dollar 570 million funding micro projects throughout the country. Many of these projects involved constructing and renovating school facilities. This article uses data from foncodes, the 1993 population census in Peru, and a 1996 household survey conducted by the Peruvian Statistical Institute to analyze the targeting and impact of foncodes investments in education. A number of descriptive and econometric techniques are employed, including nonparametric regressions, differences in differences, and instrumental variables estimators. Results show that foncodes investments in school infrastructure have reached poor districts and poor households within those districts. The investments also appear to have had positive effects on school attendance rates for young children.

Despite the importance of knowing whether development programs achieve their objectives, impact evaluations remain rare in developing economies. This is unfortunate. With the growing use of results-based management by governments, determining whether goals have been attained and convincingly linking changes to specific programs has become increasingly critical. Tracking such outcomes as gains in school enrollment or reductions in infant mortality is indispensable. But simply gathering good data on outcomes sheds little light on why objectives have or have not been met. For this reason, impact evaluations should be a key instrument in policymakers' monitoring and evaluation toolbox.