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We extend Miyazawa and Masegi's original idea of disaggregated interrelational income multipliers with regard to three aspects. First, we examine the effect of system closure on the inter‐income‐group matrix. Second, we formally include inter‐household transactions, or the informal economy, into Miyazawa's calculus. Third, we extend the interrelational multiplier to environmental factors. These extensions are applied to the Brazilian economy of 1995. Multiplier matrices excluding and including the informal economy are presented and interpreted, and the redistributive process of transfer payments is traced through consecutive spending rounds for various scenarios. Finally, these redistributive processes are enumerated in terms of transport fuel and electricity use. Our results indicate that, because of the distribution of ownership of productive capital, the income formation process is heavily skewed toward the highest incomes. Whether the existing process and potential redistributive policies alleviate environmental pressure depends on the factors as well as the population segment appraised.

This report synthesizes the findings for the energy sector of a broader study, the Brazil low carbon study, which was undertaken by the World Bank in its initiative to support Brazil's integrated effort towards reducing national and global emissions of greenhouse gases while promoting long term development. The main aim of the study is to examine the potential for abating Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil in the energy area and to assess the relative costs of doing so for the time frame 2010-2030. Basically the study seeks to demonstrate by how much, by when and at what cost Brazil could reduce its GHG energy sector emissions. Given its special features, the fuel use and emissions of greenhouse gases in the transportation sector are dealt with in another report of this project. In addition the study aims to provide information for the Brazilian government to enable it to develop a long-term strategy (2030) for reducing carbon in the energy area (except the transport sector) and, more specifically, to provide the technical input needed for evaluating the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions produced by the key economic sectors. In short, the study seeks to identify the different options and opportunities that could justify possible international resources being allocated to Brazil. The teams involved in the study needed first to focus on the proposed mitigation and carbon sequestering options and then, after identifying these proposals, to focus on existing barriers to the successful deployment of these options and suggest a set of public policies which could be mobilized to overcome them. The study also provides estimates of the scale of investments and operating costs likely to be involved, as well as a mitigation cost curve.

Some three fourths of electricity generation in Brazil come from renewables. Most of it is supplied by hydro, complemented by biomass-fueled thermal power plants and wind, while solar is still irrelevant. However, in the medium and long terms, a strong growth is expected for wind and solar in the country. Solar and wind resources are variable in time, partially unpredictable and cannot be dispatched to meet the load. These characteristics require system flexibility, which is the capacity of the power grid to adapt to different supply and demand patterns. Given that most thermal plants are not designed for a large frequency of operating cycles, renewables penetration may result in higher maintenance and operating costs, increased fuel consumption and reduced lifetime. Furthermore, some units might be called out-off-merit to maintain voltage and frequency levels. This paper presents preliminary results on the ability of thermal units to provide flexibility to the country´s grid, through an analysis for the Northeast region bounded by transmission constraints among 65 nodes (out of 196 nodes along the country). Results show that the power sector in Brazil might not be well equipped to deal with high penetration rates of variable renewable energy sources, with impacts on the capacity factor, and on the efficiency, of thermal power plants in the country. They also reveal that while wind energy increases the need of ramping capabilities, solar has greater impacts on the number of starts and shutdowns of conventional units. ; This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning (PIRSES-GA-2013-612263). The authors would also like to express their gratitude to the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior) for the essential support given for this work to be carried ...

Carbon capture and Geological storage (CCGS) is recognised as a technology capable of reducing large-scale emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is an important part of the portfolio of alternatives necessary to achieve significant reductions in the global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). As of this context where greenhouses gases constrains in Europe would come, and CCGS would be a mitigation option for GHG, it becomes necessary to develop a CO2 transport network to collect and inject it in a proper geological reservoir. Therefore, the following methodology can help to implement a pipeline network in any region in the world by doing a preliminary analysis about the best places to locate a HUB (temporary CO2 reservoir). In this paper, the demonstration of the methodology refers to Portugal's industrial emission sources in which CCS could be implemented. ; This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning ...

Carbon capture and geological storage (CCS) is a key technology for the World deep decarbonization. However, several challenges remain, such as the optimization of the carbon transportation infrastructures. This study proposes a methodology that applies the Kernel Density function in a geographic information system software and uses as input, CO2 emission sources data to identify emission clusters and emission high-density hotspots. The main goal of the proposed methodology is to perform a preliminary screening to identify areas of interest to install hubs when designing an optimized CO2 pipeline network. The methodology includes an estimation of capturable CO2 emissions and a density analysis that was based on Kernel Density function from the ArcGIS Desktop 10. The methodology was applied to the Iberian Peninsula CO2 industrial emission sources such as refineries, coal and natural gas power plants and cement factories (case study) and the results showed that in Portugal, CO2 industrial emissions reduction can reach up to 68% and, in Spain, up to 74% of CO2 industrial emissions, could be avoided. These are called capturable CO2 emissions which means that they are the portion of the total emissions that can be captured from industrial processes before they reach the atmosphere. Moreover, hubs were shown to be more viable when Portugal and Spain are considered together, therefore, carbon routes (pipeline network) in the future may consider an integrated route for the Iberian Peninsula. ; - Thanks to Professor Fernando Gomes Martins from the University of Porto. He supported and encouraged this work under the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000005 - LEPABE-2-ECO-INNOVATION, supported by North Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).This research was supported, also, by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project ...

This work seeks to evaluate overnight construction costs (OCC) and lead time escalation of nuclear reactors from 1955 to 2016. To this end, a comprehensive database of commercial Light Water Reactors (LWR) was developed and a statistical analysis was conducted. Findings reveal that there is significant delay in lead time, especially for the last generation reactors constructed from 2010's. This results in the escalation of capital costs rather than a decline. Average OCC of newer reactors are 60% higher than the ones implemented in the earlier stages of the nuclear era. This suggests a negative learning curve effect for both OCC and lead time, which threats the market and financial sustainability of current and future nuclear energy projects. Although this is a general trend, this negative effect is country specific and, thus, induced by national policies and regulatory frameworks. Therefore, the role of nuclear technology to cope with the decarbonisation of the power sector must be better evaluated, taking into account the real cost impacts of nuclear technology implementation. ; This work was also funded by the Brazilian research funding agency CNPq. ; This work was funded by the Brazilian research funding agency CNPq and the Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under the project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning ...

The Brazilian power generation sector faces a paradigm change driven, on one hand, by a shift from a hydropower dominated mix and, on the other, by international goals for reducing greenhouse gases emissions. The objective of this work was to evaluate five scenarios for the Brazilian power system until 2050 using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool. These scenarios include a baseline trend and low carbon policy scenarios based on carbon taxes and carbon emission limits. To support the applied methodology, a questionnaire was elaborated to integrate the perceptions of experts on the scenario evaluation process. Taking into account the results from multi-criteria analysis, scenario preference followed the order of increasing share of renewables in the power system. The preferable option for the future Brazilian power system is a scenario where wind and biomass have a major contribution. The robustness of the multi-criteria tool applied in this study was tested by a sensitivity analysis. This analysis demonstrated that, regardless the respondents' preferences and backgrounds, scenarios with higher shares of fossil fuel sources are the least preferable option, while scenarios with major contributions from wind and biomass are the preferable option to supply electricity in Brazil through 2050. ; This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning ...