Suchergebnisse

Comprehensive data on refugee migration flows over space and time only exists for a limited number of countries and is prone to various problems, including quality issues, completeness, and different collection methods. This paper addresses these obstacles by presenting global bilateral five-year refugee migration flows between 1990 and 2015 that are derived from available stock data. The estimates, which reflect short-term rather than long-term movements captured by stock data, provide valuable insights into past refugee migration patterns. The results suggest a substantial worldwide decline in refugee migration flows after the early 1990s and a focus shift from African to Asian countries. Furthermore, the data show that global refugee migration flows are highly spatially concentrated and fluctuate between 0.11 and 0.33 percent of the world's population.

The crisis management framework for banks in the European Union (EU) requires the resolution authorities to identify the existence of a public interest to resolve an ailing bank, rather than to open normal insolvency proceedings (NIPs). The Public Interest Assessment (PIA) determines whether resolution objectives, including the safeguard of financial stability, can be better preserved using resolution tools than NIPs .This paper provides a contribution to the ongoing discussion on the implementation of the PIA, by presenting an analytical framework to quantify the potential impact on the real economy stemming from a bank's failure under NIPs through the interruption of the lending activity ("credit channel"). The framework is harmonized across the jurisdictions belonging to the Banking Union and aims to improve the quantitative leg of the PIA, to be coupled with qualitative elements. In a first step, we quantify the potential credit shortfall faced by firms and households due to the abrupt closure of a bank. In a second step, the impact of the credit shortfall on real outcomes is estimated via a FAVAR model and via a micro-econometric model. Reference values are provided to assess the relevance of the estimated outcomes. The illustrative results show that such a harmonized approach can be applied across the Banking Union and to banks of heterogeneous size. In case of mid-sized banks, this common analytical framework could reduce the uncertainty regarding the extent to which the failure of the institution could have a negative impact to the real economy if the lending activity is interrupted as possibly the case under NIPs.