Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Landslide is a major natural hazard in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Knowledge about atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is limited even though this topic has already been investigated thoroughly in other parts of the world. In this study, the newly developed, high-resolution High Asia Refined analysis version 2 (HAR v2) data set generated by dynamical downscaling was combined with historical landslide inventories to analyze the atmospheric conditions that initialized landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide-triggering processes since it contributes to the initialization of 40 % of landslide events. Objective thresholds for rainfall, snowmelt, and the sum of rainfall and snowmelt (rainfall + snowmelt) were defined. Thresholds defined by rainfall + snowmelt have the best predictive performance. Mean intensity, peak intensity, and the accumulated amount of rainfall + snowmelt events show similar predictive performance. Using the entire period of rainfall + snowmelt events results in better predictive performance than just considering the period up to landslide occurrence. Mean annual exceedance maps were derived from defined regional thresholds for rainfall + snowmelt. Mean annual exceedance maps depict climatic disposition and have added value in landslide susceptibility mapping. The results reported in this study highlight the potential of dynamical downscaling products generated by regional climate models in landslide prediction.

Abstract. Hot weather episodes are globally associated with excess mortality rates. Elevated ozone concentrations occurring simultaneously also contribute to excess mortality rates during these episodes. However, the relative importance of both stressors for excess mortality rates is not yet known and assumed to vary from region to region. This study analyzes time series of daily observational data of air temperature and ozone concentrations for eight of the largest German cities during the years 2000 and 2017 with respect to the relative importance of both stressors for excess mortality rates in each city. By using an event-based risk approach, various thresholds for air temperature were explored for each city to detect hot weather episodes that are statistically associated with excess mortality rates. Multiple linear regressions were then calculated to investigate the relative contribution of variations in air temperature and ozone concentrations to the explained variance in mortality rates during these episodes, including the interaction of both predictors. In all cities hot weather episodes were detected that are related to excess mortality rates. Across the cities, a strong increase of this relation was observed around the 95th percentile of each city-specific air temperature distribution. Elevated ozone concentrations during hot weather episodes are also related to excess mortality rates in all cities. In general, the relative contribution of elevated ozone concentrations on mortality rates declines with increasing air temperature thresholds and occurs mainly as a statistically inseparable part of the air temperature impact. The specific strength of the impact of both stressors varies across the investigated cities. City-specific drivers such as background climate and vulnerability of the city population might lead to these differences and could be the subject of further research. These results underline strong regional differences in the importance of both stressors during hot weather episodes and could thus help in the development of city-specific heat–ozone–health warning systems to account for city-specific features.

Abstract. Hazard–risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept. For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001–2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main non-linear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard–risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- Contents -- A WHY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT AGRICULTURE AS PART OF THE CITY? - FRAMING A PROBLEM FROM LIFE-WORLD TO RESEARCH -- A1 DEALING WITH FIVE MAJOR CHALLENGES OF GROWING CITY REGIONS -- A2 THE UAC RESEARCH APPROACH -- A2.1 Problems, questions and definitions -- A3 THE UAC METHODOLOGY -- A3.1 Research on global change and urbanization: dealing with complexity and uncertainty -- A3.2 The UAC project: doing transdisciplinarity -- A3.3 Remarks on transdisciplinary research -- A3.4 Reflections on the UAC research process -- B THE CONTEXT: GRAND CASABLANCA -- B1 PRESENTATION OF GRAND CASABLANCA -- B1.1 City profile -- B1.2 History -- B1.3 City type: every city is different -- B2 ACTORS AND POLITICAL PROCESSES OF GRAND CASABLANCA -- B2.1 Actors in urban and agricultural development -- B2.2 Challenges and opportunities: towards a new phase of urban development -- C UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEMS OF GRAND CASABLANCA -- C1 NEED FOR ANALYTICAL KNOWLEDGE -- C2 METHODS FOR COMPLEX KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION -- C2.1 Problem-oriented sectoral studies -- C2.2 Mapping and visualization -- C2.3 Stakeholder analysis -- C2.4 Field research -- C2.5 Earth observation -- C2.6 Numerical modelling -- C2.7 Future research: visions and scenarios -- C2.8 Transdisciplinary design -- C2.9 Information and communication platforms -- C2.10 Integrative communication -- C3 PROBLEM ORIENTED ANALYSIS -- C3.1 Urban space production -- C3.2 Infrastructure -- C3.3 Environmental conditions -- C3.4 Climate -- C3.5 Food and nutrition -- C3.6 Agriculture -- C3.7 Society and governance -- C4 DEEPENING THE PROBLEM ANALYSIS -- C4.1 Urban-rural linkages and interacting spheres -- C4.2 Socio-spatiaI practices and land use -- C4.3 Natural resources -- C4.4 Natural hazards and risks.