Suchergebnisse

Abstract. The most common approach to assessing natural hazard risk is investigating the willingness to pay in the presence or absence of such risk. In this work, we propose a new, machine-learning-based, indirect approach to the problem, i.e. through residential-choice modelling. Especially in urban environments, exposure and vulnerability are highly dynamic risk components, both being shaped by a complex and continuous reorganization and redistribution of assets within the urban space, including the (re-)location of urban dwellers. By modelling residential-choice behaviour in the city of Leipzig, Germany, we seek to examine how exposure and vulnerabilities are shaped by the residential-location-choice process. The proposed approach reveals hot spots and cold spots of residential choice for distinct socioeconomic groups exhibiting heterogeneous preferences. We discuss the relationship between observed patterns and disaster risk through the lens of exposure and vulnerability, as well as links to urban planning, and explore how the proposed methodology may contribute to predicting future trends in exposure, vulnerability, and risk through this analytical focus. Avenues for future research include the operational strengthening of these linkages for more effective disaster risk management.

Deliverable 1.2 is intended to be a guide, a structured interpretation and evaluation of the current knowledge used to collate evidence on intended outcomes and unintended impacts of UF-NBS for urban ecosystem regeneration and human wellbeing. The information reported herein is based on the compilation of a reference-recorded knowledge repository of UF-NBS and their impacts on urban liveability, public health, halting biodiversity loss and re-diversifying UF-NBS structures to enhance urban resilience; specifically, Task 1.2 - Reviewing the knowledge on the importance of UF-NBS for resilient cities - and M1.3 - the Repository on UF-NBS for resilient cities in China and Europe. Sections 2 and 3 of deliverable D1.2a are intended to provide a review of current UF-NBS practices in Europe and China. The in-depth coverage of these UF-NBS case studies is further expanded in Appendix 1 by reviewing the grey literature, i.e. the project and official reports, planning strategies, as well as scientific publications that span the territory of EU Member States and China. This documentation highlights the main goals and methodologies used in UF-NBS research and implementation, policy implications and NBS typology and functions, i.e., ecosystem services, within the frame of Task 1.2, as well as case history templates (Task 1.4). In Section 4, a comparative analysis of case histories provides conclusive insights into common or contrasting aspects in and between these two continents. Final considerations drawn from the comparative analysis of the intended outcomes of UF-NBS implementation include lessons that can be learned and existing knowledge gaps. In Section 5, a Sino-European analysis, in the form of a modelling exercise, was conducted of the selected case histories to explore shared themes, such as connectivity, multifunctionality and social cohesion, and macro-categories (i.e., ecological, engineering, social and economic macro-categories) for urban regeneration and renaturing. The second part, D1.2b, presents a review of ...