Suchergebnisse

We analyze the feedback mechanisms between economic downturns and financial stress for euro area countries. Our study employs newly constructed financial condition indices that incorporate extensively banking variables. We apply a nonlinear Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive (VSTAR) model for investigating instabilities in the financial sector-output linkages. The VSTAR model appears appropriate since it allows for smooth regime changes and asymmetric dynamics. We find that regime-switching takes place rather smoothly which dampens the negative output response after a shock in the financial sector in the selected euro area countries. Moreover, linearity cannot be rejected for all countries over some extensive time period questioning non-linearities in the financial sector-output nexus as unambiguous feature. In particular, we show that the negative effect of financial stress on output typically observed is not always present. This holds specifically for the time before the Lehman collapse, even if this is a model-defined high stress regime. After the collapse, we observe strong amplification mechanisms. This suggests that events leading to a strong economic breakdown are rare but large events and related to financial cycles which exhibit low frequency.

We focus on the influence of institutional variables on business cycle synchronisation for 20 OECD countries from 1979 to 2003. More precisely, this paper derives measures for similarity of institutions and structural reforms, and investigates direct and delayed reform effects on synchronisation by applying robustness tests to a panel data framework with bilateral data. Our findings indicate a strong instantaneous relationship between both similarity of institutions as well as common structural reforms and business cycle correlation. -- Business cycle synchronisation ; institutions ; structural reforms ; robustnesstest

Deutschland hat mit einem soliden Wachstum seiner Wirtschaftsleistung zum Jahresanfang 2012 die Experten überrascht und auf europäischer Ebene eine Rezession verhindert. Allerdings trüben die schwache konjunkturelle Lage und die hohe Unsicherheit über die weitere politische und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der EU-Partner die Erwartungen.

We focus on the influence of institutional variables on business cycle synchronisation for 20 OECD countries from 1979 to 2003. More precisely, this paper derives measures for similarity of institutions and structural reforms, and investigates direct and delayed reform effects on synchronisation by applying robustness tests to a panel data framework with bilateral data. Our findings indicate a strong instantaneous relationship between both similarity of institutions as well as common structural reforms and business cycle correlation.

In recent years non-linearities have gained increasing importance in economic and econometric research, particularly after the financial crisis and the economic downturn after 2007. This book contains theoretical, computational and empirical papers that incorporate non-linearities in econometric models and apply them to real economic problems. It intends to serve as an inspiration for researchers to take potential non-linearities in account. Researchers should be aware of applying linear model-types spuriously to problems which include non-linear features. It is indispensable to use the correct model type in order to avoid biased recommendations for economic policy.--