vulnerability and compensation: constructing an index of co-optation in autocratic regimes
In: European political science: EPS, Band 14, Heft 4, S. 439-457
ISSN: 1682-0983
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In: European political science: EPS, Band 14, Heft 4, S. 439-457
ISSN: 1682-0983
In: Handbuch Transformationsforschung, S. 561-567
In: Handbuch Transformationsforschung, S. 561-567
In: Berliner Debatte Initial: sozial- und geisteswissenschaftliches Journal, Band 21, Heft 3, S. 54-66
ISSN: 0863-4564
World Affairs Online
In: Democratization, Band 30, Heft 5, S. 938-959
ISSN: 1743-890X
In: Schmotz , A & Tansey , O 2018 , ' Regional Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival ' , EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH , vol. 57 , no. 3 , pp. 662-686 . https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12243
In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.
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In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 57, Heft 3, S. 662-686
ISSN: 0304-4130
In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.
World Affairs Online
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 57, Heft 3, S. 662-686
ISSN: 1475-6765
AbstractIn this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.
The relationship between international linkages and the nature and survival of political regimes has gained increasing attention in recent years, but remains one that is poorly understood. In this article, we make three central contributions to our understanding of international linkage politics and autocratic regime survival. First, we introduce and develop the concept of "autocratic linkage," and highlight its importance for understanding the international politics of autocratic survival. Second, we use event history analysis to demonstrate that autocratic linkage has a systematic effect on the duration of authoritarian regimes. Finally, we complement our quantitative analysis with a focused comparison of autocratic linkage politics in the Middle East. We show that variation in Saudi Arabian support for autocratic incumbents in the wake of the Arab Spring protests can be explained in significant part by variation in linkage relationships. ; Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich / This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.
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In: Comparative political studies: CPS, Band 50, Heft 9, S. 1221-1254
ISSN: 1552-3829
World Affairs Online
In: Tansey , O , Koehler , K & Schmotz , A 2017 , ' Ties to the Rest : Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival ' , COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES , vol. 50 , no. 9 , pp. 1221-1254 . https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414016666859
The relationship between international linkages and the nature and survival of political regimes has gained increasing attention in recent years, but remains one that is poorly understood. In this article, we make three central contributions to our understanding of international linkage politics and autocratic regime survival. First, we introduce and develop the concept of 'autocratic linkage', and highlight its importance for understanding the international politics of autocratic survival. Second, we use event history analysis to demonstrate that autocratic linkage has a systematic effect on the duration of authoritarian regimes. Finally, we complement our quantitative analysis with a focused comparison of autocratic linkage politics in the Middle East. We show that variation in Saudi Arabian support for autocratic incumbents in the wake of the Arab Spring protests can be explained in significant part by variation in linkage relationships.
BASE
In: Comparative political studies: CPS, Band 50, Heft 9, S. 1221-1254
ISSN: 1552-3829
The relationship between international linkages and the nature and survival of political regimes has gained increasing attention in recent years, but remains one that is poorly understood. In this article, we make three central contributions to our understanding of international linkage politics and autocratic regime survival. First, we introduce and develop the concept of "autocratic linkage," and highlight its importance for understanding the international politics of autocratic survival. Second, we use event history analysis to demonstrate that autocratic linkage has a systematic effect on the duration of authoritarian regimes. Finally, we complement our quantitative analysis with a focused comparison of autocratic linkage politics in the Middle East. We show that variation in Saudi Arabian support for autocratic incumbents in the wake of the Arab Spring protests can be explained in significant part by variation in linkage relationships.
In: WZB-Mitteilungen, Heft 133, S. 25-28
"Die jüngsten Ereignisse im Nahen Osten und in Nordafrika haben sogar versierte Beobachter überrascht. Eigentlich galt die Region als ein Hort stabiler Diktaturen. Doch innerhalb von Wochen gelang es den Bürgern, zwei Diktatoren aus dem Amt zu jagen; andere Autokraten könnten bald folgen. Der konstante Niedergang der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Machtbasis der autokratischen Regime in Verbindung mit der Erhebung einer mit Web-2.0 vertrauten Jugendbewegung hat letztendlich eine überraschende Möglichkeit für weitreichende Reformen ermöglicht. Ob diese Chance ergriffen wird, bleibt abzuwarten." (Autorenreferat)
The 'Great Recession' has rekindled discussions about the relationship between economic crisis and democratic breakdown, frequently based on analogies with interwar experiences. However, while the notion that economic crisis in general and the Great Depression in particular caused democratic breakdowns in the interwar years is widespread, most comparative studies of the period between the two world wars have found no independent effect of crisis on democratic breakdown. In this study, we argue that the latter findings are premised on inappropriate standards of assessments and the exclusion of relevant cases. Based on an event history analysis including 33 countries with democratic spells in the interwar years, we find a significant, non-trivial relationship between economic crisis and interwar democratic breakdown. Our results corroborate the notion that economic crisis substantially increases the risk of breakdown in fragile democracies. But we also show that it is not last year's economic performance that matters but rather longer-term developments.
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