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Earth observation is an important source of information in areas that are too remote, too insecure or even both for traditional field surveys. A multi-scale analysis approach is developed to monitor the Kivu provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to identify hot spots of mining activities and provide reliable information about the situation in and around two selected mining sites, Mumba-Bibatama and Bisie. The first is the test case for the approach and the detection of unknown mining sites, whereas the second acts as reference case since it is the largest and most well-known location for cassiterite extraction in eastern Congo. Thus it plays a key-role within the context of the conflicts in this region. Detailed multi-temporal analyses of very high-resolution (VHR) satellite data demonstrates the capabilities of Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) techniques for providing information about the situation during a mining ban announced by the Congolese President between September 2010 and March 2011. Although the opening of new surface patches can serve as an indication for activities in the area, the pure change between the two satellite images does not in itself produce confirming evidence. However, in combination with observations on the ground, it becomes evident that mining activities continued in Bisie during the ban, even though the production volume went down considerably. ; (VLID)1569836

In this study object-based image analysis (OBIA) techniques were applied to assess land cover changes related to mineral extraction in a conflict-affected area of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) over a period of five years based on very high resolution (VHR) satellite data of different sensors. Object-based approaches explicitly consider spatio-temporal aspects which allow extracting important information to document mining activities. The use of remote sensing data as an independent, up-to-date and reliable data source provided hints on the general development of the mining sector in relation to socio-economic and political decisions. While in early 2010, the situation was still characterised by an intensification of mineral extraction, a mining ban between autumn 2010 and spring 2011 marked the starting point for a continuous decrease of mining activities. The latter can be substantiated through a decrease in the extend of the mining area as well as of the number of dwellings in the nearby settlement. A following demilitarisation and the mentioned need for accountability with respect to the origin of certain minerals led to organised, more industrialized exploitation. This development is likewise visible on satellite imagery as typical clearings within forested areas. The results of the continuous monitoring in turn facilitate non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to further foster the mentioned establishment of responsible supply chains by the mining industry throughout the entire period of investigation.

In this study object-based image analysis (OBIA) techniques were applied to assess land cover changes related to mineral extraction in a conflict-affected area of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) over a period of five years based on very high resolution (VHR) satellite data of different sensors. Object-based approaches explicitly consider spatio-temporal aspects which allow extracting important information to document mining activities. The use of remote sensing data as an independent, up-to-date and reliable data source provided hints on the general development of the mining sector in relation to socio-economic and political decisions. While in early 2010, the situation was still characterised by an intensification of mineral extraction, a mining ban between autumn 2010 and spring 2011 marked the starting point for a continuous decrease of mining activities. The latter can be substantiated through a decrease in the extend of the mining area as well as of the number of dwellings in the nearby settlement. A following demilitarisation and the mentioned need for accountability with respect to the origin of certain minerals led to organised, more industrialized exploitation. This development is likewise visible on satellite imagery as typical clearings within forested areas. The results of the continuous monitoring in turn facilitate non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to further foster the mentioned establishment of responsible supply chains by the mining industry throughout the entire period of investigation.

Abstract. In this paper, we anticipate geospatial population distributions to quantify the future number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru. We capitalize upon existing gridded population time series data sets, which are provided on an open-source basis globally, and implement machine learning models tailored for time series analysis, i.e., based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, for prediction of future time steps. Specifically, we harvest WorldPop population data and teach LSTM and convolutional LSTM models equipped with both unidirectional and bidirectional learning mechanisms, which are derived from different feature sets, i.e., driving factors. To gain insights regarding the competitive performance of LSTM-based models in this application context, we also implement multilinear regression and random forest models for comparison. The results clearly underline the value of the LSTM-based models for forecasting gridded population data; the most accurate prediction obtained with an LSTM equipped with a bidirectional learning scheme features a root-mean-squared error of 3.63 people per 100 × 100 m grid cell while maintaining an excellent model fit (R2= 0.995). We deploy this model for anticipation of population along a 3-year interval until the year 2035. Especially in areas of high peak ground acceleration of 207–210 cm s−2, the population is anticipated to experience growth of almost 30 % over the forecasted time span, which simultaneously corresponds to 70 % of the predicted additional inhabitants of Lima. The population in the tsunami inundation area is anticipated to grow by 61 % until 2035, which is substantially more than the average growth of 35 % for the city. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.