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The present paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach for assessment and decision support of tactical loss reduction for roadway tunnel systems subject to fire events. The proposed probabilistic modeling approach combines scenario-based risk models for the probabilistic representation of accidents and fires with agent-based probabilistic representations of the escape scenarios of persons. The Fehmarn-belt tunnel is used as case study and a real-time daily traffic (RTDT) curve is considered. The vehicle population and the number and categories of persons in individual vehicles are modelled probabilistically based on statistics from the European Union. The example focuses on the modelling and assessment of the effects of tunnel closure, as a risk reducing measure in case of fire, on the evacuation dynamics. The results show that fast hindrance of traffic entry into the tunnel system efficiently reduces the expected value of the number of exposed persons but at the same time increases the variance associated with the number of persons evacuated within a given time frame. ; This work is part of Femern SafetyLab Project, funded by the Danish Agency for Science and Higher Education.

Geoarchaeological reconstructions of land-use changes may help to reveal driving cultural factors and incentives behind these processes and relate them to supra-regional economic and political developments. This is particularly true in the context of complete abandonment of a settlement. Here we present a case study from the site of Faule Pfütze, a small catchment in the Eastern Ore Mountains (Saxony). The historical record of this site is confined to the report of a settlement called Hohenwalde in 1404 CE and two later references to the then-abandoned settlement in 1492 and 1524 CE in this area. Combined geoarchaeological studies allowed for the reconstruction of several phases of land use. While a first phase of alluvial sedimentation occurred during the late 12th century, archaeological evidence for a permanent settlement is absent during this period. The onset of settlement activity is identified during the late 14th century and included a hitherto unknown massive stone building. Mining features are present nearby and are dated to the early 15th century. The local palynological record shows evidence for reforestation during the mid 15th century and thereby corroborates the time of abandonment indicated by written sources. These processes are discussed in the context of a local political conflict (Dohna Feud) leading to the redistribution of properties and the development of a mining economy during this time. Later land use from the mid 16th century onwards appears restricted to charcoal production, probably in the context of smelting works operating in nearby Schmiedeberg as indicated by rising lead concentrations in the alluvial record.

Geoarchaeological reconstructions of land-use changes may help to reveal driving cultural factors and incentives behind these processes and relate them to supra-regional economic and political developments. This is particularly true in the context of complete abandonment of a settlement. Here we present a case study from the site of Faule Pfütze, a small catchment in the Eastern Ore Mountains (Saxony). The historical record of this site is confined to the report of a settlement called Hohenwalde in 1404 CE and two later references to the then-abandoned settlement in 1492 and 1524 CE in this area. Combined geoarchaeological studies allowed for the reconstruction of several phases of land use. While a first phase of alluvial sedimentation occurred during the late 12th century, archaeological evidence for a permanent settlement is absent during this period. The onset of settlement activity is identified during the late 14th century and included a hitherto unknown massive stone building. Mining features are present nearby and are dated to the early 15th century. The local palynological record shows evidence for reforestation during the mid 15th century and thereby corroborates the time of abandonment indicated by written sources. These processes are discussed in the context of a local political conflict (Dohna Feud) leading to the redistribution of properties and the development of a mining economy during this time. Later land use from the mid 16th century onwards appears restricted to charcoal production, probably in the context of smelting works operating in nearby Schmiedeberg as indicated by rising lead concentrations in the alluvial record.

Geoarchaeological reconstructions of land-use changes may help to reveal driving cultural factors and incentives behind these processes and relate them to supra-regional economic and political developments. This is particularly true in the context of complete abandonment of a settlement. Here we present a case study from the site of Faule Pfütze, a small catchment in the Eastern Ore Mountains (Saxony). The historical record of this site is confined to the report of a settlement called Hohenwalde in 1404 CE and two later references to the then-abandoned settlement in 1492 and 1524 CE in this area. Combined geoarchaeological studies allowed for the reconstruction of several phases of land use. While a first phase of alluvial sedimentation occurred during the late 12th century, archaeological evidence for a permanent settlement is absent during this period. The onset of settlement activity is identified during the late 14th century and included a hitherto unknown massive stone building. Mining features are present nearby and are dated to the early 15th century. The local palynological record shows evidence for reforestation during the mid 15th century and thereby corroborates the time of abandonment indicated by written sources. These processes are discussed in the context of a local political conflict (Dohna Feud) leading to the redistribution of properties and the development of a mining economy during this time. Later land use from the mid 16th century onwards appears restricted to charcoal production, probably in the context of smelting works operating in nearby Schmiedeberg as indicated by rising lead concentrations in the alluvial record.