Suchergebnisse

Die Einführung neuartiger Energietechnologien wird allgemein als der Schlüssel zur Senkung klimaschädlicher Treibhausgase angesehen. Allerdings ist die Abbildung derartiger Technologien in numerischen Modellen zur Simulation und ökonomischen Analyse von energie- und klimaschutzpolitischen Maßnahmen vielfach noch rudimentär. Die Dissertation entwickelt neue Ansätze zur Einbindung von technologischen Innovationen in energie-ökonomische allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle, mit dem Ziel den Energiesektor realitätsnäher abzubilden. Die Dissertation adressiert einige der Hauptkritikpunkte an allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodellen zur Analyse von Energie- und Klimapolitik: Die fehlende sektorale und technologische Disaggregation, die beschränkte Darstellung von technologischem Fortschritt, und das Fehlen von einem weiten Spektrum an Treibhausgasminderungsoptionen. Die Dissertation widmet sich zwei Hauptfragen: (1) Wie können technologische Innovationen in allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle eingebettet werden? (2) Welche zusätzlichen und politikrelevanten Informationen lassen sich durch diese methodischen Erweiterungen gewinnen? Die Verwendung eines sogenannten Hybrid-Ansatzes, in dem neuartige Technologien für Stromerzeugung und Eisen- und Stahlherstellung in ein dynamisch multi-sektorales CGE Modell eingebettet werden, zeigt, dass technologiespezifische Effekte von großer Bedeutung sind für die ökonomische Analyse von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen, insbesondere die Effekte hinsichtlich von Technologiewechsel und dadurch bedingten Änderungen der Input- und Emissionsstrukturen. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Dissertation, dass Lerneffekte auf verschiedenen Stufen der Produktionskette abgebildet werden müssen: Für regenerative Energien, zum Beispiel, nicht nur bei der Anwendung von Stromerzeugungsanlagen, sondern ebenso auf der vorgelagerten Produktionsstufe bei der Herstellung dieser Anlagen. Die differenzierte Abbildung von Lerneffekten in Exportsektoren, wie zum Beispiel Windanlagen, verändert die Wirtschaftlichkeit und die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und hat wichtige Implikationen für die ökonomische Analyse von Klimapolitik. ; Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international competitiveness and economic output.

In a carbon constrained world, at least four classes of greenhouse gas mitigation options are available: Energy efficiency, fuel switching, introduction of carbon dioxide capture and storage along with renewable generating technologies, and reductions in emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The role of energy technologies is considered crucial in climate change mitigation. In particular, carbon capture and storage (CCS) promises to allow for low-emissions fossil-fuel based power generation. The technology is under development; a number of technological, economic, environmental and safety issues remain to be solved. With regard to its sustainability impact, CCS raises a number of questions: On the one hand, CCS may prolong the prevailing coal-to-electricity regime and countervail efforts in other mitigation categories. On the other hand, given the indisputable need to continue using fossil fuels for some time, it may serve as a bridging technology towards a sustainable energy future. In this paper, we discuss the relevant issues for the case of Germany. We provide a survey of the current state of the art of CCS and activities, and perform an energy-environment-economic analysis using a general equilibrium model for Germany. The model analyzes the impact of introducing carbon constraints with respect to the deployment of CCS, to the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, to the energy and technology mix and with respect to interaction of different mitigation efforts. The results show the relative importance of the components in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. For example, under the assumption of a CO2 policy, both energy efficiency and CCS will contribute to climate gas mitigation. A given climate target can be achieved at lower marginal costs when the option of CCS is included. We conclude that, given an appropriate legal and policy framework, CCS, energy efficiency and some other mitigation efforts are complementary measures and should form part of a broad mix of measures required for a successful CO2 mitigation strategy.

Due to the size and structure of its economy, Germany is one of the largest carbon emitters in the European Union. It is responsible for approximately 800 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions annually, accounting for about one-fourth of European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to the level in 1990, Germany?s CO2 emissions are now 19% lower. Within the burden sharing agreement under the Kyoto Protocol, Germany is committed to reduce carbon emissions by 21% in 2008-2012 compared to 1990. A long-term national target is to reduce CO2 emissions 40% by year 2020 relative to 1990. A substantial portion of greenhouse gas emissions is produced by the electricity system. CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel combustion for electricity production amount to more than 40% of total CO2 emissions in Germany.

This paper focuses on the following two key research questions in the context of the change in allocation rules in the move from Phase I/II (2005–2012) to Phase III (2013–2020) of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS): First, how do allocations compare with actual installation-verified emissions in Phase III? For that purpose we analyse changes in sector-country allocations and verified emissions between Phase II and Phase III. The analysis is based on a selection of 2150 installations present in all phases of the EU ETS, taken from the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL) The results show that over-allocation has been considerably reduced in Phase III. Overall, allocation for the selected sectors decreased by 20% in 2013 compared to 2008 but varying across installations. Second, we investigate, whether the introduction of benchmarks in Phase III may have triggered carbon-reducing measures for industrial processes. For that purpose, we analyse for four product groups (cement clinker, pig iron, ammonia and nitric acid) the specific emissions (per tonne of product). Care was taken to define a data set with a similar delimitation of emission and production data. The findings were cross-checked through selected expert interviews. Our findings indicate that there is no evidence so far for improving specific emissions, though the strong improvement for nitric acid, as well as some improvement linked to ammonia occurring before the start of Phase III may have been supported by the introduction of Phase III.

This paper focuses on the following two key research questions in the context of the change in allocation rules in the move from Phase I/II (2005–2012) to Phase III (2013–2020) of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS): First, how do allocations compare with actual installation-verified emissions in Phase III? For that purpose we analyse changes in sector-country allocations and verified emissions between Phase II and Phase III. The analysis is based on a selection of 2150 installations present in all phases of the EU ETS, taken from the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL). The results show that over-allocation has been considerably reduced in Phase III. Overall, allocation for the selected sectors decreased by 20% in 2013 compared to 2008 but varying across installations. Second, we investigate, whether the introduction of benchmarks in Phase III may have triggered carbon-reducing measures for industrial processes. For that purpose, we analyse for four product groups (cement clinker, pig iron, ammonia and nitric acid) the specific emissions (per tonne of product). Care was taken to define a data set with a similar delimitation of emission and production data. The findings were cross-checked through selected expert interviews. Our findings indicate that there is no evidence so far for improving specific emissions, though the strong improvement for nitric acid, as well as some improvement linked to ammonia occurring before the start of Phase III may have been supported by the introduction of Phase III.

This paper assesses the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy on the costs of meeting international climate policy targets for 2020. The analyses are based on simulations with a global energy systems model. The phase-out of nuclear power increases greenhouse gas emissions by 2% globally, and 7% for Annex I countries. The price of certificates increases by 24% and total compli-ance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%. Compliance costs increase the most for Japan (+58%) and the USA (+28%). China, India and Russia benefit from a global nuclear phase-out because revenues from higher trading volumes of certificates outweigh the costs of losing nuclear power as a mitigation option. Even for countries that face a relatively large increase in compliance costs, such as Japan, the nuclear phase-out implies a relatively small overall economic burden. When trading of certificates is available only to countries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nuclear phase-out results in a larger increase in the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia). Results from sensitivity analyses suggest that our findings are fairly robust to alternative burden-sharing schemes and emission target levels.

In October 2003, the European Union introduced a Directive which widens the scope of the EU?s minimum taxation system from mineral oils to all energy products including coal, natu-ral gas and electricity. It aims at reducing distortions that currently exist between Member States as well as between energy products. In addition, it increases previous minimum tax rates and thus the incentive to use energy more efficiently. The Directive will lead to changes in the energy tax schemes in a number of countries, in particular some southern Member Countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal) and most of the Eastern European EU candidate countries. In this paper, we analyze the effects of the EU energy tax harmonization with GTAP-E, a computable general equilibrium model. Particular focus is placed on the Eastern European countries which became new members of the EU in May 2004. We investigate the effects of the tax harmonization on overall economic growth and sectoral development. Special atten-tion is paid to international trade in order to analyze if competitiveness concerns which have been forwarded in the context of energy taxation are valid. Furthermore, the effect on energy consumption and emissions and thus the contribution to the EU?s climate change targets is analyzed.

Die aktuelle Ausgestaltung der Mehrwertsteuer setzt eine Reihe ökologischer Fehlanreize. Insbesondere die Mehrwertsteuerermäßigung für Fleisch und tierische Produkte sollte daher abgeschafft werden. Durch die zu erwartenden Veränderungen im Konsum würden bis zu 6 Mio. t/Jahr Treibhausgasemissionen eingespart, weitere positive Umweltwirkungen erzielt und zusätzliche Steuereinnahmen von 2-5 Mrd. €/Jahr generiert. Um soziale Härten zu vermeiden, könnte parallel der ermäßigte Mehrwertsteuersatz für pflanzliche Lebensmittel auf 5% gesenkt werden. Außerdem sollte die Umsatzsteuer für Arbeitsleistungen energetischer Sanierungen auf 7% reduziert werden: Einsparung von Treibhausgasemissionen in Hö-he von 1 Mio. t/Jahr und zusätzliche Beschäftigungs- und Wertschöpfungsimpulse bei gleichzeitigen Steuerausfällen von 1,2 Mrd. €/Jahr wären zu erwarten. Zudem sollten kleine Reparaturdienstleistungen mit dem reduzierten Mehrwertsteuersatz gefördert werden. Darüber hinaus wird empfohlen Sachspenden von Unternehmen (z.B. Lagerbestände, Rückläufe) von der Umsatzsteuer zu befreien, um Warenvernichtung zu vermeiden. Der laufende Reformprozess der europäischen Mehrwertsteuersystemrichtlinie, die den Rahmen für die Zulässigkeit reduzierter Sätze vorgibt, sollte genutzt werden, um Handlungsspielräume für eine weitergehende Ökologisierung der Mehrwertsteuer zu schaffen. Denkbar wäre es, die umweltfreundlichsten Produkte und Dienstleistungen in verschiedenen Marktsegmenten mit einem reduzierten Satz zu fördern sowie den reduzierten Satz für die Reparatur von Gebrauchsgegenständen wie Elektro-, Elektronikgeräte und Möbel zu ermöglichen. Verbrauchsteuern sind ein weiterer Ansatzpunkt für eine Ökologisierung des Konsums. In der deutschen Finanzverfassung sind Verbrauchsteuern eng gefasst. Sie müssen sich regelmäßig auf "Güter des ständigen Bedarfs" beziehen. Optionen für Verbrauchsteuern mit ökologischer Lenkungswirkung sind z.B. eine Verbrauchsteuer auf Zement (gekoppelt mit Klimaschutzverträgen für weitgehend klimaneutralen Zement), die ...