Suchergebnisse

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a pilot study involving high school teachers in natural sciences. The aim was to foster critical thinking about cascading hazards via the use of reasoned imagination. Cascading phenomena can lead to extreme catastrophes and are thus a challenge for disaster prevention and management.


Design/methodology/approach
– Following a presentation listing some known cascading phenomena, the participants completed a questionnaire consisting of a blank hazard correlation matrix (HCM) and some open-ended questions. The HCM qualitatively described possible interactions between 16 different perils selected from a large spectrum of natural, technological and socio-economic hazards.


Findings
– Most participants were able to describe cascading phenomena within the HCM by reducing them into sets of one-to-one interactions. Based on their experience and imagination, the participants foresaw additional interactions that were not discussed, never observed but are scientifically plausible. The majority of the respondents reported that they learnt something new and wanted to learn more about cascading hazards.


Originality/value
– The HCM is especially effective in translating complex hazard scenarios into basic interactions and vice versa. Being imaginative (here via the use of reasoned imagination) and accessible, the HCM could be used as basis for transformative learning in the education of the public and of practitioners on the role of cascading hazards in catastrophes.

There is an increasing demand for a new paradigm to improve flood-mitigation decision processes that calls for risk-reduction strategies at several levels. This demand may gain ground only if dialogue is encouraged among different perspectives, disciplines, and knowledge types. The aim of this paper is to explore new methods to improve flood-mitigation decision processes. A growing body of evidence suggests that the involvement of the local actors is a key aspect in successful decision making. Following this premise, we analyze a recent case of controversy in flood mitigation in Malborghetto-Valbruna (Northern Italy), using social multicriteria evaluation (SMCE) and social actors' narrative analysis. Six alternatives are defined and the different positions adopted by the local actors are described. The different narratives of the actors are also analyzed to allow the identification of improvement routes for a more accurate SMCE of flood-mitigation alternatives. Thus, this case study suggests that the analysis of narratives is a useful tool to complement SMCE.

Abstract. When public agencies provide information provision to help people make
better decisions, they often face the choice between economy and
completeness. For weather services warning people of high-impact weather
events, this choice is between offering standard warnings (SWs) only of the
weather event itself, such as wind-speed, or also describing the likely
impacts (so-called impact-based warnings, IBWs). Previous studies have shown
IBWs to lead to a greater behavioral response. These studies, however, have
relied on surveys describing hypothetical weather events; given that
participants did not feel threatened, they may have been more likely to
process the warning slowly and analytically, which could bias the results
towards finding a greater response to the IBWs. In this study, we conducted
a field experiment involving actual and potentially threatening weather
events for which there was variance with respect to the time interval between
the warning and the forecasted event and for which we randomly assigned
participants to receive SWs or IBWs. We observe that shorter time intervals
led to a greater behavioral response, suggesting that fear of an imminent
threat is an important factor motivating behavior. We observe that IBWs
did not lead to greater rates of behavioral change than SWs, suggesting that
when fear is a driving factor, the additional information in IBWs may be of
little importance. We note that our findings are highly contextualized, but
we call into question the prevailing belief that IBWs are necessarily more
helpful than SWs.

AbstractThe sharp increase in the use of smartphones and rapid advances in mobile communication offer new ways to warn the public about developing natural or technological hazards. So far, the effectiveness of different warning types, namely standard and impact‐based warnings (SW and IBW), were mainly tested in scenario‐based experiments and not in real life. However, it can be questioned whether scenario‐based experiments are the appropriate methodology to test different warnings, for instance due to the absence of feelings catalysed by real events. Therefore, we collected information about warning responses in real time via the smartphone application 'Wetter‐Alarm' of a Swiss weather provider. In the first phase of the study, we conducted a field experiment to investigate actual responses for SW and IBW. In the second phase, we compared these results with behavioural intentions collected via a scenario‐based experiment with an almost identical set‐up. The comparison shows that warning messages were perceived and understood very similar in both experiments. Also, we did not observe any significant interactions between warning type (SW vs. IBW) and study (field vs. scenario‐based experiment). These findings indicate that the effects of warning type on behaviour can be studied on the basis of experimental (i.e. scenario‐based) research designs. The paper ends with some reflections on the potential of big data in the social sciences and on a research agenda for real‐time data collection to improve warning effectiveness and, ultimately, climate risk management.

The continued rise of global disaster losses pushes our attention yet further to the causal factors that drive risks, beyond the frame of standardised risk assessment models. A key gap in our understanding of the causality of disasters remains establishing how spatially and temporally distant factors – 'root causes' – drive local risk conditions. This is particularly the case for small-scale but high-impact disasters. It includes understanding the role that institutions play in influencing such pathways of risk production. This paper addresses this question using a holistic approach to risk analysis that links past drivers to contemporary conditions. We apply this in three case studies of coastal flood management in urban areas of differential size and integration within the European Union - Rethymno (Crete), Genoa (Italy) and St Maarten (Dutch Caribbean). The paper reveals the importance of local institutions in mediating the impacts of higher-level economic and political changes on local risks. It provides new empirical evidence of the relationship between austerity, institutional reform and local disaster risk reduction. The analysis supports a stronger causal epistemology of resilience to disasters but also leads to re-consideration of the institutional entry points for risk reduction, and the importance of considering context and trade-offs.

The existing implementation gap currently dividing the policy domains of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), can be attributed to institutional barriers; diverging political priorities; inter-sectoral misperceptions and miscommunication; unequal funding sources and varying operational timescales at national, European and international levels. A recurring question raised amongst strategic policy makers tackling climate-related risks in both sectors asks: Can reducing these divergences and seeking new streamlining synergies assist in closing the implementation gap and deliver better integrated Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policies? Specifically, can such synergising action extend to strengthening of trans-border and trans-disciplinary resilience? The ESPREssO Project explores these questions through a two-year stakeholder engagement process-collecting opinion from European CCA and DRR stakeholders, using novel methods such as crisis simulation exercises (serious games), questionnaires, interviews and international Think Tanks to identify mutual barriers and recommend ways both sectors can overcome them. We prioritise the various solutions with stakeholders, drawing on international and intersectoral CCA and DRR perspectives to refine a set of key recommendations for synergising action. Results prioritise the importance of clear communication, maintaining political support and inclusion of the currently under-utilised private sector in positively establishing closer cooperation between CCA and DRR. The benefits of strengthening CCA-DRR inter-sectoral links are explored as essential pathways for better-informing hazard mitigation planning under a changing global climate and in aligning localised and strategic efforts. The emphasis is on working in support of each other, avoiding unnecessary duplication of effort and harmonising competing activities. ; ISSN:2212-4209

Abstract. Scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties in coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human–water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data time series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (1 year). Perceived preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damage during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to enhance the representation of socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human–water systems in order to better support risk management.

Abstract
Bad weather continues not only to inflict damage on property but also to kill and injure people, despite significant advances in the predictive power of meteorological warnings. There is evidence that people tend to underreact to weather warning information, to a large extent because of insufficient understanding of the impacts that severe weather events can have, as well as to demonstrate the appropriate response behavior. A growing number of experts are suggesting that standard warning information should be augmented with additional information about these factors, but this has so far largely failed to take place. Past research studies have shown possible advantages of including impact-based warnings (IBWs) and behavioral recommendations (BRs) into the warning information, but the results are in part ambiguous, due to a failure to have tested for effects of the two kinds of information separately and in combination. Based on quantitative results from a survey experiment in Switzerland, this knowledge gap is addressed. Results of the research reported here indicate significant benefits from providing both sets of information together, in terms of improving both perception and understanding of warning and intended behavioral responses. When only one piece of information is given, BRs have a significant effect on both perception and intended response, whereas IBWs have a significant effect only on intended response. These findings offer empirical justification for the added expense and time associated with the more detailed hazard warnings.

This paper analyses the underlying factors of a disaster 'recovery process'. Based on a household survey, conducted ten months after the 2015 South Indian floods in two affected constituencies (Mylapore and Velachery) of Chennai, residents were asked how long they took to recover from the floods and whether they took actively part in the recovery process. The results highlight that residents from the more affected constituency (Velachery) took significantly longer to restore physical aspects (e.g. energy, water, roads, etc.), but only partially longer for social and economic aspects. Aspects of social capital (leadership, communication, ownership and trust) were rated equally low in both communities. However, individual actions to help others or participate in volunteer groups increased more significantly in the constituency that was more affected. The findings from this case study point-out that flood disaster events trigger residents to become more solidary and active to help others, but have little impact on triggering a more active interplay between communities and authorities. This highlights that flood disaster events do not change inherent structural and institutional relationships between key actors (local government, communities, private sector, academia and NGOs) involved in disaster recovery processes.

Abstract. Private risk reduction behaviours can significantly reduce the
negative impacts of flooding and flash floods. Over the past decades,
researchers have used various socio-cognitive models or threat and coping
mechanisms to explain individual protective behaviours. However, these
models ignore the fact that people are not equally ready to act upon a danger, and
they (the models) give limited insights into the effectiveness of communication
strategies to foster risk reduction behaviours. Therefore, we explored the
current state of homeowners' readiness to undertake risk reduction
behaviours in flood risk areas by applying a dynamic protection motivation
framework. We conducted a survey in an Italian municipality that experienced
severe flash flooding in September 2018. The results show that people are
motivated by different factors in prompting risk reduction behaviour based
on their chosen types of protective measures. For example, people that undertook
structural or avoidance measures are more likely to be motivated to protect
themselves by increased perceptions of vulnerability and response efficacy
and are less worried about expected flood losses compared to people that
undertook only basic emergency measures. In this paper, we argue how these
new insights contribute to targeting flood risk communication strategies to
groups of individuals characterized by different readiness stages and
motivations to protect themselves.

Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters. ; ISSN:2212-4209

The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.

The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4,000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, and governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change and they rank it as the most likely threat.