Suchergebnisse

EU–Moldova relations have improved dramatically over the last four years. A new legal framework to reflect Moldova's more ambitious European agenda has been negotiated and sectoral integration in various fields has gathered rapid pace. Despite impressive progress, however, the path has not been smooth, and Moldova's European integration is not yet irreversible. Moldova's pluralism is still weak, institutions need time for consolidation and anti-corruption efforts are yet to demonstrate results. Russia has also often been a complicating factor. As Moldova is about to embark on the implementation of an Association Agreement agenda, the EU has to reassess recent policy on Moldova, identify potential pitfalls along the road and attune its approach in order to circumvent probable obstacles and thus maximise the effects of its transformative power in the coming years.

Part I: Russia in the Middle East: From the Soviet Union to Putin -- Chapter 1: The Soviet Union in the Middle East: An Overview Florence Gaub, Nicu Popescu, Dimitar Bechev -- Chapter 2: What Drives Russia's Policy in the Middle East? Dmitri Trenin, Carnegie Moscow Part II: Russian Policy in Action -- Chapter 3: Russia in Syria: A Military Analysis Anton Lavrov, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), Moscow -- Chapter 4: The Non-War on Daesh Florence Gaub, EUISS -- Chapter 5: Russian Arms Exports in the Middle East Timofey Borisov, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), Moscow -- Chapter 6: Russia's Energy Diplomacy in the Middle East Carole Nakhle, Crystol Energy Part III: Regional Partnerships -- Chapter 7: Russia and Iran: It's Complicated Carol R. Saivetz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology -- Chapter 8: Russia and the 'Resistance Axis' Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR -- Chapter 9: Russia and Turkey: the Promise and the Limits of Partnership Dimitar Bechev, University of North Carolina/Atlantic Council -- Chapter 10: Understanding Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relations Dmitriy Frolovskiy, independent expert -- Chapter 11: Russia and Egypt: Precarious Honeymoon Alexey Khlebnikov, Russian International Affairs Council -- Chapter 12: The 'Comrades' in the Maghreb Dalia Ghanem, Carnegie Middle East Centre, Beirut -- Chapter 13: Russia and Israel: An Improbable Friendship Mark N. Katz, George Mason University Conclusion: Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: A Balance Sheet Stanislav Secrieru, Dimitar Bechev.

Foresight is about choice, decision and action – and not, as is repeated time and again, predicting the future and getting it wrong. This Chaillot Paper aims to alert decision-makers to potential developments with significant strategic impact while they can still prepare for, or even avoid them. This is done using two methods combined: horizon-scanning as well as single scenario-building. Taken together, they produce plausible events set in 2021 – with strategic ramifications well beyond that. All 12 scenarios in this Chaillot Paper reflect the expertise and imagination of the researchers who wrote them: some explore potential conflicts, while others look at disruptive political developments, or indeed at crises with significant ramifications. That said, all are designed in the hope of drawing attention to foreign and security policy aspects which are potentially overlooked, and all are extrapolated from ongoing and recent developments.