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The Tunisian political system is still in process of transitioning, causing high uncertainty and political instability. As remittances have long been perceived as a buffer against uncertainty surrounding unusual events, this study seeks to assess the role of remittances in times of rising socio-political unrest. To do so, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the behavior of remittances during troubled political transition. Specifically, detailed investigation of rescaled range(R/S) analysis to test whether remittances follow a long-memory process is carried out. Our findings tend to confirm the stable behavior of remittances. We can therefore characterize Tunisian migrants as regular customers in the future. This would affect positively both the balance of payments and the families who receive them. But this situation seems to be exogenous and is not related to the implementation of any policy to attract remittances. Hence the Paramount importance of designing a comprehensive strategy that enables remittances to play a more potential role in post-revolution periods and that renders emigration an integral part of growth strategies.

The Tunisian political system is still in process of transitioning, causing high uncertainty and political instability. As remittances have long been perceived as a buffer against uncertainty surrounding unusual events, this study seeks to assess the role of remittances in times of rising socio-political unrest. To do so, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the behavior of remittances during troubled political transition. Specifically, detailed investigation of rescaled range(R/S) analysis to test whether remittances follow a long-memory process is carried out. Our findings tend to confirm the stable behavior of remittances. We can therefore characterize Tunisian migrants as regular customers in the future. This would affect positively both the balance of payments and the families who receive them. But this situation seems to be exogenous and is not related to the implementation of any policy to attract remittances. Hence the Paramount importance of designing a comprehensive strategy that enables remittances to play a more potential role in post-revolution periods and that renders emigration an integral part of growth strategies.

Over the past decade, remittances to Tunisia have increased significantly. Meantime, the Tunisian economy has grown by as little as 0.6 percent on average with inflation averaging six percent. With the harmful economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis as well as the political unrest (especially after Tunisian President Kais Saied invoked Article 80 of the country's 2014 constitution to suspend parliament amid nationwide protests calling for the resignation of the government and the dissolution of the parliament), managing inflation risks seems growingly challenging. Our study is the first attempt to examine the relationship between remittances and Tunisia's inflation dynamics in the central and tail distributions over different correlation regimes. Particularly, we use a copula-based approach that sheds a new light on the dynamic dependence between inflation and remittances. This technique allows to control for possible asymmetries in the form of a high or crisis dependence and a low or a normal state dependence. Our results robustly reveal that remittances are prominent factor determining inflation in Tunisia. More interestingly, we show that remittances and inflation are more strongly correlated during high uncertainty conditions rather than low uncertainty regime. Such accurate insights on the dynamic relationship between remittances and inflation would allow the central bank to anticipate more effectively the evolution of inflation and to propose more appropriate instruments to control it in a context of high inflationary pressures and heightened political uncertainty.

The coronavirus epidemic is not the first virus outbreak that has threatened to disturb financial markets. But the world is now more interconnected since the 2003 SARS outbreak as global companies' revenues have become much more exposed to China. The purposes of this paper are threefold. The first is to address the timely question of whether Bitcoin exhibits a safe-haven property against heightened uncertainty over how the duration and spread of the coronavirus could hit the world economy. The second purpose is to assess if the initial news of the coronavirus outbreak have led to an increased volatility of Bitcoin. The third aim is to test if Bitcoin immediately react on publicly announced information (follows the hypothesis of efficient markets). We show that the current bullish sentiment is triggered by investors seeking Bitcoin as a safe haven in the uncertain times ahead. But we also find that the virus intensifies the volatility of Bitcoin due to a search by investors for alternative asset classes amid concerns about the coronavirus. The information regarding the coronavirus takes time to be reflected in the Bitcoin price, highlighting the associated inefficiencies it brings. Also, the risk to global markets may currently be masked owing to wide liquidity injections by Central Banks including the People's Bank of China and the U.S Federal Reserve.

AbstractThe victory of Mr. Donald Trump came as a surprise to a wide range of market participants. Some of the elements of his economic plan were envisaged to affect all US sectors. This paper assesses the reactions of disaggregated US stock market to the 2016 US presidential election results, and possible deregulation that is to follow after his inauguration. We find that the different US sectors were significantly and varyingly influenced by the election result, and were greatly reactive during the days after the inauguration. This underscores that uncertainty tends to persist and even rises since the President‐elect took office.

International audience ; The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it aims at identifying when UK and European (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) exhibit explosivity with respect to their past behaviors. Second, it seeks to quantify the dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects surrounding the UK's EU membership referendum commonly known as "Brexit". Using a recursive identification algorithm and new spillover measures suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), two interesting findings were drawn. We detect significant build-ups in CDS prices for all countries under study soon after the day relative to the announcement of Brexit. In addition, we show that the great uncertainty over Brexit generates significant risk spillovers across the underlined CDS. In particular, we find that UK, Italy and Spain are the "net volatility transmitters", while France and Germany seem the "net volatility receivers". Our findings may help in formulating appropriate regulatory policies and designing effective hedging strategies.

International audience ; The international community was caught by surprise on 5 June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of destabilizing the region. More than one year after this diplomatic rift, several questions remain unaddressed. This study focuses on the regional business costs of the year-long blockade on Qatar. We split the sample to compare the stock market performances of Qatar and its Middle Eastern neighbors before and after the Saudi-led Qatar boycott. We focus our attention on the conditional volatility process of stock market returns and risks related to financial interconnectedness. We show that the Gulf crisis had the most adverse impact on Qatar together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although not to the same degree as these three countries, Bahrain and Egypt were also harmfully affected. But shocks to the volatility process tend to have short-lasting effects. Moreover, the total volatility spillovers to and from others increase but moderately after the blockade. Overall, the quartet lobbying efforts did not achieve the intended result. Our findings underscore Qatar's economic vulnerability but also the successful resilience strategy of this tiny state. The coordinated diplomatic efforts of Qatar have been able to fight the economic and political embargo.

The Facebook's announcement that it would create its new currency « Libra » sparked a debate with respect the added value, security and regulatory aspects of virtual currencies. Beyond the challenges facing Libra (i.e., regulatory concerns and the risk of money laundering and fraud, etc.), this study seeks to assess if the announcement of this type of project has an impact on the cryptocurrency market. A dynamic event-study methodology is used to examine the abnormal returns of Bitcoin and other major altcoin markets (in particular, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple) as a reaction of Facebook « Libra » announcement. Our results suggest that all the cryptocurrencies respond positively to the official announcement of Facebook's much-anticipated cryptocurrency project, and appear highly reactive during the succeeding days. Despite crucial differences between « Libra » and cryptocurrecies, the entrance of Facebook into the cryptocurrency market can be regarded as a stamp of approval that helps to legitimize the crypto space making it go mainstream.

International audience ; The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it aims at identifying when UK and European (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) exhibit explosivity with respect to their past behaviors. Second, it seeks to quantify the dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects surrounding the UK's EU membership referendum commonly known as "Brexit". Using a recursive identification algorithm and new spillover measures suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), two interesting findings were drawn. We detect significant build-ups in CDS prices for all countries under study soon after the day relative to the announcement of Brexit. In addition, we show that the great uncertainty over Brexit generates significant risk spillovers across the underlined CDS. In particular, we find that UK, Italy and Spain are the "net volatility transmitters", while France and Germany seem the "net volatility receivers". Our findings may help in formulating appropriate regulatory policies and designing effective hedging strategies.

The Facebook's announcement that it would create its new currency « Libra » sparked a debate with respect the added value, security and regulatory aspects of virtual currencies. Beyond the challenges facing Libra (i.e., regulatory concerns and the risk of money laundering and fraud, etc.), this study seeks to assess if the announcement of this type of project has an impact on the cryptocurrency market. A dynamic event-study methodology is used to examine the abnormal returns of Bitcoin and other major altcoin markets (in particular, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple) as a reaction of Facebook « Libra » announcement. Our results suggest that all the cryptocurrencies respond positively to the official announcement of Facebook's much-anticipated cryptocurrency project, and appear highly reactive during the succeeding days. Despite crucial differences between « Libra » and cryptocurrecies, the entrance of Facebook into the cryptocurrency market can be regarded as a stamp of approval that helps to legitimize the crypto space making it go mainstream.

International audience ; The worldwide heightened economic uncertainty in countries like Venezuela, India, Britain, and Italy has strengthened more demand for Bitcoin. The deadlock between Greece and creditors doesn't seem to be going away and Greeks are very tired of the most punishing austerity measures connected to repayments of the loans. Greek people, who become increasingly mistrustful of their government, found solace in the Bitcoin as a refuge asset. The novelty of this paper lies in its methodological approach, which can pinpoint the dynamic effects of uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis on the interest in Bitcoin as an alternative to conventional and state-sanctioned banking system. Our findings confirm the great resilience of Bitcoin during periods of turmoil, highlighting its potential safe haven ability against uncertainty.

International audience ; The international community was caught by surprise on 5 June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of destabilizing the region. More than one year after this diplomatic rift, several questions remain unaddressed. This study focuses on the regional business costs of the year-long blockade on Qatar. We split the sample to compare the stock market performances of Qatar and its Middle Eastern neighbors before and after the Saudi-led Qatar boycott. We focus our attention on the conditional volatility process of stock market returns and risks related to financial interconnectedness. We show that the Gulf crisis had the most adverse impact on Qatar together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although not to the same degree as these three countries, Bahrain and Egypt were also harmfully affected. But shocks to the volatility process tend to have short-lasting effects. Moreover, the total volatility spillovers to and from others increase but moderately after the blockade. Overall, the quartet lobbying efforts did not achieve the intended result. Our findings underscore Qatar's economic vulnerability but also the successful resilience strategy of this tiny state. The coordinated diplomatic efforts of Qatar have been able to fight the economic and political embargo.

International audience ; The worldwide heightened economic uncertainty in countries like Venezuela, India, Britain, and Italy has strengthened more demand for Bitcoin. The deadlock between Greece and creditors doesn't seem to be going away and Greeks are very tired of the most punishing austerity measures connected to repayments of the loans. Greek people, who become increasingly mistrustful of their government, found solace in the Bitcoin as a refuge asset. The novelty of this paper lies in its methodological approach, which can pinpoint the dynamic effects of uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis on the interest in Bitcoin as an alternative to conventional and state-sanctioned banking system. Our findings confirm the great resilience of Bitcoin during periods of turmoil, highlighting its potential safe haven ability against uncertainty.