Suchergebnisse

The present study investigates long-term population dynamics in Italy, 1862-2009, in light of Demographic Transitions (DTs). Under the assumption that DTs are multidimensional processes of change involving several aspects, including population structure and dynamics, an exploratory analysis was carried out in this study to verify temporal coherency of 15 indicators in Italy, identifying homogeneous time periods with distinct demographic characteristics. Indicators' trends were identified using a multivariate statistical approach. The results of this study allow empirical testing of the assumption of temporal coherence between different aspects of a long-term DT, distinguishing distinctive population dynamics and the differential impact on population structure over two centuries. After a relatively long period of demographic stability, the time window encompassing the two World Wars-approximately between 1921 and 1951-was identified as a primary turning point of population dynamics in Italy; a second turning point was estimated at the beginning of the 1970s. These time intervals may represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between demographic and socioeconomic contexts, highlighting latent system transitions. The study concludes by outlining the importance of a more effective integration of demographic transition theories into a broader sustainability framework, and implementing a diachronic analysis of political, economic, and social forces associated with population dynamics in both advanced economies and emerging countries.

Different socioeconomic, historical, political, and cultural factors have influenced long-term settlement patterns and demographic structures in Europe. Southern Europe is considered a relatively homogeneous region as far as settlement characteristics and population dynamics are concerned. Within-country local variability in the spatial distribution of population is high, and inherent differences across countries may outline distinct demographic patterns at regional scale. A comparative, local-scale analysis of population distribution in five countries (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Greece, and Cyprus) over a relatively long time period (1961-2011) contributes to identify latent demographic trends in Mediterranean Europe at the spatial scale of Local Administrative Units (LAU). A spatially-explicit analysis of basic indicators of population density and demographic change allows identification of territorial disparities, reflecting local-scale settlement patterns common to different countries (e.g., population growth along coastal districts). These patterns consolidate a metropolitan hierarchy centered on large-mainly compact-cities and more dispersed conurbations along coastal areas. At the same time, the examined countries present different territorial contexts resulting in distinct population dynamics in turn influenced by internal (e.g., national policies, culture and local identity, class segregation) and exogenous (e.g., economic cycle, urbanization models) factors. A spatially-explicit analysis of demographic trends at local scale may contribute to rethinking urban strategies and adapting spatial planning to heterogeneous socioeconomic contexts across Europe.

Este artículo propone una metodología basada en el uso de sistemas de información geográfica y modelos de análisis estadístico multivariante para analizar el desarrollo local en zonas de montaña, a través de la definición de taxonomías de áreas. Para la aplicación de esta metodología se ha partido de variables socioeconómicas y espaciales para llegar a una identificación de variables latentes y comunes a varias áreas que ha permitido la clasificación de estas áreas. Estas taxonomías son las que en definitiva pueden permitir dar alternativas que faciliten el desarrollo en las comarcas pirenaicas, pero también, dar elementos interpretativos para posibles políticas de mantenimiento y de planificación de áreas de protección natural, frente a actividades más agresivas con el entorno. Naturalmente, estas políticas tendrían que estar relacionadas con la planificación urbana/rural teniendo en cuenta aspectos económicos y sociales. ; This article proposes a methodology based on geographical information systems and factor-analysis to carry out taxonomies for mountain areas in the Catalan Pyrenees. Initially, socio-economic and spatial variables have been used in the classification of the areas. Subsequently, the discrimination of homogeneous areas becomes important in order to undertake posterior studies about their development and to facilitate the creation of specific public policies adjusted to their main competitive advantages. The confrontation of such extreme and rival neighbouring uses in small Pyrenean regions -such as natural parks and productive activities- with externalities arising and affecting each others' activities, requires governmental instruments to intervene in order to achieve a more efficient allocation of resources in the face of externalities, to decrease production where there is external cost and to increase it where there are external benefits. Necessarily, these policies would have to be related to urban planning and to take into account economic and social aspects.