Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction -- References -- 2 Instead of Executive Summary. Tripping Points -- An Overview -- References -- 3 Defining Terrorism -- Future Perspectives -- References -- 4 Pandemics -- 4.1 Flash Scenarios -- 4.1.1 Scenario 4.1 Creating Pandemics -- 4.1.2 Scenario 4.2 the Blood Drive -- 4.2 Discussion -- 4.3 Tripping Points -- References -- 5 CRISPR and the New Biology -- 5.1 Flash Scenarios -- 5.1.1 Scenario 5.1 Genetic Poison -- 5.1.2 Scenario 5.2 Overcoming Antibiotics -- 5.2 Discussion -- 5.3 Tripping Points -- References -- 6 Identification: Forensics and DNA Databases -- 6.1 Flash Scenarios -- 6.1.1 Scenario 6.1 Cousin Genghis -- 6.1.2 Scenario 6.2 Elementary -- 6.2 Discussion -- 6.3 Tripping Points -- References -- 7 Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Weapons -- 7.1 Flash Scenarios -- 7.1.1 Scenario 7.1 Request for Proposal -- 7.1.2 Scenario 7.2 Algorithms and the Pandemic -- 7.2 Discussion -- 7.3 Tripping Points -- References -- 8 Challenges in Space -- 8.1 Flash Scenarios -- 8.1.1 Scenario 8.1 Dust in Orbit -- 8.1.2 Scenario 8.2 Death Threat -- 8.1.3 Scenario 8.3 Who Has the Right Time? -- 8.2 Discussion -- 8.3 Tripping Points -- References -- 9 The Little Things Sometimes Count -- 9.1 Flash Scenarios -- 9.1.1 Scenario 9.1 The Frog Metaphor -- 9.1.2 Scenario 9.2 Had Hitler Died… -- 9.1.3 Scenario 9.3 The Infinitesimal Shrinking Camera -- 9.2 Discussion -- 9.2.1 Small Thefts -- 9.2.2 Butterflies and Chaos -- 9.2.3 Memes -- 9.3 Tripping Points -- References -- 10 The Fuzzy Line -- Are We at War? -- 10.1 Flash Scenarios -- 10.1.1 Scenario 10.1 A Canary Society -- 10.1.2 Scenario 10.2 Pipe Dreams -- 10.1.3 Scenario 10.3 The Protection Racket -- 10.2 Discussion -- 10.2.1 Hacking as Terror -- 10.2.2 War as Terror.

Purpose
– Many emerging technologies are being developed in an accelerating pace and are key drivers of future change. In foresight studies, usually their positive impact on the quality of life is considered or their negative environmental effects. This paper seeks to draw attention to an overlooked "dark side" of new technologies: their potential abuse by terrorists or organized crime. Recent cybercrime events are examples of abuse that perhaps could have been minimized if appropriate foresight studies were performed years ago. This was the aim of the recently completed EU-funded project FESTOS.



Design/methodology/approach
– Several foresight methodologies were employed. Following a horizon scanning for potentially threatening technologies, a Delphi-type expert survey helped to evaluate critical threat characteristics of selected 33 technologies: the likelihood that each technology will actually come to pose a security threat (in different time frames), the easiness of its malicious use, the severity of the threat, and the most threatened societal spheres.



Findings
– The results enabled ranking the technologies by their "abuse potential" and "threat intensity". Certain emerging technologies (or their combinations), regarded as "weak signals", inspired ideas for potential "wild cards". In a subsequent workshop, which employed a variant of the "futures wheel" method, four wild-card "scenario sketches" were constructed. These were later developed to full narrative scenarios.



Originality/value
– The entire process enables the introduction of security foresight into policy planning in a long-range perspective. The foresight results were followed by the evaluation of policy implications and coping with the knowledge control dilemma. The paper illustrates how a mix of foresight methods can help in a continuous analysis of new and threats posed by emerging technologies, thus raising awareness of decision makers and mitigating the risk of unforeseen surprises.

This is the first book to analyse the abuse of the internet for terrorism and crime purposes under two new perspectives: (1) The persuasion and involvement of women and children as specific target user groups, and (2) The development of new strategies to use extremist web forums as an open book in order to understand and gain insight into terrorist thinking. Web 2.0 can be even more: an open door for dialogue, deradicalisation and ultimately a way out of the cocoon of terroristic isolation. This book presents the results of a unique cooperation between Israeli and German research centers with outstanding contributions to innovative security research. Two international conferences in Berlin in 2008 brought together worldwide leading authors both from academia and government. Most recent research results challenge the actual treatment of terroristic web forums by governmental agencies. This remarkable publication will open your eyes both on the real risks of terroristic web activities and new counter strategies from analysis to dialogue.