Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Surprisingly, formal proof on the optimality of a linear decision rule in the discrete time AK model with a CRRA utility function has not been established in the growth literature while that in the continuous time counterpart is well-established. This note fills such a gap: I provide a formal proof that consumption being linearly related to investment is a sufficient and necessary condition for Pareto optimality in the discrete time AK model.

Abstract
It is a well-established property that more precise private information leads to lower non-fundamental volatility in a coordination economy with dispersed information. In this note, we identify conditions under which such an argument holds or does not hold. In particular, we show that the opposite relationship holds when (1) there is a strong positive correlation between private information of different agents and (2) public information is endogenously generated.

AbstractWe study forecast dispersion in a finite-player forecasting game modeled as an aggregate game with payoff externalities and dispersed information. In the game, each agent cares about being accurate as well as about the distance of his forecast from the average forecast; and with a finite number of agents, the agents can strategically influence that average. We show that the finiteness of the number of agents weakens the strategic effect induced by the underlying preference. We find that when each agent prefers to be close to the average forecast, the presence of strategic manipulation of the average forecast contributes to a higher forecast dispersion; when instead each agent wants to be distinctive from the average, the opposite is true.