Suchergebnisse

Managing for the Future: Understanding the Relative Roles of Climate and Fishing on Structure and Dynamics of Marine Ecosystems.-- 5 pages, 1 figure ; The UN declared the 2021–2030 as the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Ocean Decade). The Ocean Decade's vision is to "develop scientific knowledge, build infrastructure and foster relationships for a sustainable and healthy ocean." The Ocean Decade aims to achieve six societal outcomes: (1) A clean ocean, through identifying and removing sources of pollution; (2) A healthy and resilient ocean, with mapped and protected marine ecosystems; (3) A predicted ocean, enabling society to understand current and future ocean conditions; (4) A safe ocean, protecting people from ocean hazards; (5) A sustainably harvested ocean, providing food and resources for the blue economy; and (6) A transparent ocean, giving citizens equitable access to data, information and technologies. It also aims to provide concrete scientific support to coastal management, adaptation and restoration, marine spatial planning, marine protected areas, fisheries management, sustainable expansion of the blue economy, nationally determined contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), national ocean policies, development of national Research and Development (R&D), capacity development, and early warning systems. The Ocean Decade offers the ocean science community a unique opportunity to change the way we support sustainable development and galvanize ocean sciences for the future (Ryabinin et al., 2019). In addition, the UN Decade for Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030), gives the ocean science community an imperative to work toward a sustainable future for the ocean. We challenge the marine ecosystem modeling community to address how we: (i) enable ocean managers and decision-makers to use our science, (ii) communicate our science, and most importantly (iii) ensure co-design of our science to achieve sustainable development. For this, we define ecosystem models as those that span physical and human drivers of change in the full ecosystem from plankton to top predators ; Y-jS and MT-T have been partially funded by the Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen programme, ANR contract N°ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01). MC and JS were funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 817578 (TRIATLAS project) and MC also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 869300 (FutureMARES project). VC acknowledges support through NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901 ; Peer reviewed

11 pages, 7 figures ; Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough ; MC and JS acknowledge funding from the EuroMarine 2018 call for Foresight Workshops and Working Groups proposals. JS, MC and MGP acknowledge the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation grant agreement N° PID2020-118097RB-I00 (ProOceans). JS, MC and YJS acknowledge the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements N° 869300 (FutureMARES) and N° 817578 (TRIATLAS). ADM acknowledges the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements N° 869300 (FutureMARES). MC acknowledges the 'Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence' accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science. GR acknowledges the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, Humboldt Tipping project 01LC1823D). VC acknowledges support through NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. VC and GO acknowledge funding through the NSERC Mitacs Accelerate Fellowship (IT09266), IOF Ocean Leaders Fellowship, and DFO. YJS acknowledges funding support from the Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, ANR contract n°ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01), and the Pew marine fellows programme ; Peer reviewed

This document contains the draft Chapter 4 of the IPBES Global Assessment on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Governments and all observers at IPBES-7 had access to these draft chapters eight weeks prior to IPBES-7. Governments accepted the Chapters at IPBES-7 based on the understanding that revisions made to the SPM during the Plenary, as a result of the dialogue between Governments and scientists, would be reflected in the final Chapters.IPBES typically releases its Chapters publicly only in their final form, which implies a delay of several months post Plenary. However, in light of the high interest for the Chapters, IPBES is releasing the six Chapters early (31 May 2019) in a draft form. Authors of the reports are currently working to reflect all the changes made to the Summary for Policymakers during the Plenary to the Chapters, and to perform final copyediting.

6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913. ; While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends ; Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ; Peer Reviewed

22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6 ; Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning ; This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) ; Peer reviewed