The fiscal smile: the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers
In: IMF working paper 03/182
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In: IMF working paper 03/182
In: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Band 2007, Heft 2, S. 199-215
ISSN: 1729-3626
In: Journal of common market studies: JCMS, Band 52, Heft 4, S. 843-860
ISSN: 0021-9886
World Affairs Online
In: Discussion paper no 2016, 52
It has been argued that the increasing importance of global value chains necessitates a modification of conventional competitiveness measures. We compile a broad dataset including value added trade, gross exports and conventional and value added based real exchange rates. To sharply focus on external competitiveness, a new price competitiveness indicator is introduced, the TWULC (Trade Weighted Unit Labour Cost indicator). It weights sectorspecific cost trends according to sector shares in exports. Econometric tests for a panel of 38 countries show that the focus on value added trade generally improves the explanatory power of export equations. Value added exports' sensitivity towards real exchange rates is up to four times higher than that of gross exports. Real effective exchange rates focusing on exporting industries and on value added weights yield more robust results across the specifications, but do not systematically outperform the more conventional measures of price or cost competitiveness.
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1936
SSRN
In: ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper No. 23-074
SSRN
International audience ; The smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures) on business cycle volatility is studied for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-1999. Special emphasis is put on the investigation of possible nonlinearities in the relationship between GDP growth volatility and fiscal stabilizers. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. The results also hold when using government revenues as a proxy for fiscal stabilizers.
BASE
In: Applied Economics, S. 1079-1086
The smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures) on business cycle volatility is studied for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-1999. Special emphasis is put on the investigation of possible nonlinearities in the relationship between GDP growth volatility and fiscal stabilizers. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. The results also hold when using government revenues as a proxy for fiscal stabilizers.
In: Europe Asia studies, Band 57, Heft 6, S. 843-858
ISSN: 1465-3427
In: Europe Asia studies, Band 57, Heft 6, S. 843-858
ISSN: 0966-8136
World Affairs Online
In: FIW Working Paper 96
We investigate the impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market. The paper takes a comprehensive approach in terms of empirical methods and data. We analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the number of trade links, applying highly disaggregated data at the 6 digit HS level over the period 1995 - 2010. We show that the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment, product categories where both regions have gained market shares and comparative advantage. We show that the number of trade links at the product level where both regions are active has increased substantially, indicating intensified competition. At the same time hardly any trade links were lost, which points against cut-throat competition between CESEE and China. The decomposition of export growth along the extensive versus the intensive margin shows that in line with the literature, the deepening of already existing trade relationships (i.e. the intensive margin) contributed most strongly export growth in both regions, whereas the contribution of new trade links (i.e. the extensive margin) had only a minor contribution, apart from the instance of EU accession which boosted the extensive margin considerably. We further decompose intensive margin growth into demand related structural effects and a supplier related competitiveness effect. Both the CESEE region and China successfully intensified their trade linkages above all as a result of their outstanding competitiveness as shown by the econometric shift-share analysis. While this suggests that both regions pursue a able export strategy, further diversification of production towards promising new industries and markets will become increasingly crucial for both, especially in face of projected slower EU-15 market growth in the longer run.
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1559
SSRN
Working paper
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1617
SSRN
Working paper
In: Applied Economics, Band 40, Heft 5, S. 643-656
The effect of European integration on long-term growth of the EU-15 member states is studied by means of panel data methods. The length of EU membership is found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth, which is relatively higher for poorer countries. While previous empirical studies tend not to find positive growth effects of regional integration, the present study suggests an asymmetric, convergence-stimulating impact of EU membership on long-term growth.